Sentences with phrase «in election prediction»

Regular readers of Politics in Spires might remember I've dabbled in election prediction before, and so I decided to turn my hand to trying to predict the outcome of the Eastleigh by - election.

Several polling companies included Ashcroft's polls in their election predictions, though several of the political parties disputed his findings.

Not exact matches

From Google + not surviving to Facebook playing a bigger role in the elections, here are some predictions for next year.

Facebook and Zuckerberg are currently embroiled in the fallout from a scandal caused by newsthat data firm Cambridge Analytica used data on 50 million individuals that was harvested from a «personality prediction» app on Facebook for political targeting purposes during the 2016 election campaign.

After the US election, my prediction was that the dollar was going to suffer from Mr. Trump being in office.

So Flagg Taylor of RICOCHET fame writes in response to my dissing of his very pro-Romney election prediction: I love that I am now lumped in with Mr. Barone.

So Flagg Taylor of RICOCHET fame writes in response to my dissing of his very pro-Romney election prediction:

The Root MSE tells us that the models are on average 3 to 5 percentage points out on the change in share of the council seats won, which is a big average error for a prediction model when there are thousands of seats up for election.

But events after the party's victory in the 2016 election have proved my predictions and calculations wrong.

The PollyVote combined forecast, averaging across forecast types, appears to have a good track record for US presidential elections, and their analysis suggests that citizen forecasts and prediction markets typically outperform the polls in the US.

The unexpected prediction from the deputy prime minister comes amid a storm of activity from Conservative eurosceptics, as the long campaigning season ahead of May's European elections begins in earnest.

Some of you still remember the tension that had built up before the 2015 elections, so much so that doomsday predictions emerged from many quarters including from agencies in the United States that Nigeria would disintegrate in 2015.

Perhaps this is not the time to be making predictions, after the most genuinely unpredictable election in living memory, but I think the referendum will happen and that Cameron is likely to win it.

Not - so - bold prediction: online ads, online recruiting, online messaging, online mobilization and online fundraising can (and will) make a difference in elections for the Senate, Congress and state and local offices in 2012.

However, this is the first time the chairman has been so clear in his prediction that Wendy Long would likely land Row C for the general election.

I'm not convinced by Jeremy Corbyn's prediction of a general election in 2018.

Next is an article which went against the grain in terms of predictions for the Oldham by - election.

Election expert Sean Fear offers his predictions for the battles for control of Town Halls taking place in June 2009.

But, as the nearly complete results table shows, that was another prediction largely confounded in these elections.

The Liberal Democrats» constituency campaign is already in full election mode, and its staffers and activists are fully aware of the polls» dire predictions.

Additionally, if we use the results of the local elections in 2011, when the Conservatives received 35 % of the vote, Labour 37 % and the Liberal Democrats 15 %, the results of the predictions are very similar.

My official prediction using my Final Election Model is that the Conservatives will make a net gain of 45 seats resulting in a working majority of 105 seats.

Although local election and general election results tend to be quite similar to begin with (the two are 90 % correlated) a statistical prediction might offer a better indicator of what is likely to happen in the future then simply taking the results at face value.

Bob McCarthy: «In a year marked by less than glamorous elections and predictions of more anemic turnout, Erie County's political contests are still generating intense interest from the most basic standpoint of all: Democrat vs. Republican.»

Party establishment in DC reacted negatively; suggesting Silver has skills and has had some predictive success in the past; but then they dismiss his predictions for the mid-term Senate election.

This prediction takes account of both recent YouGov polling data and the lessons from history about how public opinion moves in the final weeks before general elections.

The tension in the state was further exacerbated by the pro-secessionist group, Indigenous People of Biafra, which issued what seemed to be a fresh threat and prediction that the Anambra governorship election would be bloody.

It's the last set of figures showing Labour in 3rd place if Ed Balls was leader — this is not fantasy land / as per my previous predictions — that is where Labour will be within months of losing the next election (3rd place) before breaking up for good — once again cut and paste!!

If Clegg manages to significantly outperform the worst predictions for the party's general election performance, he may in the process be able to redeem his own performance in government and his project of pulling the party centrewards.

Ever since Nigel Farage and his self - anointed «People's Army» stormed into the limelight by winning the European elections in 2014, newspaper columns were filled with predictions that the flash party was just that — a flash - in - the - pan.

An Islamic cleric, Sheikh Ustaz Sham - Una Jibril, who is known for his accurate predictions on both local and international issues, has predicted that the Ashanti Region which is known to be the «World Bank» of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) will turn into a «Traditional Microfinance» in the 2020 General Elections.

My prediction: either the PVV won't form a coalition, or they will form a short - lived coalition where they will fail miserably and will do poorly the next elections (basically a repeat of what happened in Balkenende I and the LPF, which can be seen as PVV's spiritual predecessor in many ways).

And now the well - connected Tory commentator and former editor of ConservativeHome Tim Montgomerie has weighed in with a prediction that the next election will be in May 2019 — and that Osborne will be a monkey rather than an organ grinder.

Stating that almost all his predictions for 2016 had come to pass, Fayose alleged that there were plans by the Federal Government to place Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State under house arrest on Thursday — two days before the legislative rerun elections in the state.

If my new prediction is exactly right, then Cameron will plainly be in the driving seat in the days after the election.

Last month, in my first election prediction, I expected Labour to stage a partial come - back in Scotland and retain 31 of the 41 seats they won in 2010.

In Peter Kellner's latest election prediction, Labour's Scottish seat tally falls from 31 to 24 (Comments: 300)

Shehu was reacting to a United Nation's prediction that 2019 elections in Nigeria will be credible and violent - free.

«A new behavior prediction tool is forecasting a landslide victory for former Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the 2008 presidential election.

In 2016, we examined both the previous midterm of 2014 and presidential elections of 2012 and 2008 in order to make more educated predictions regarding congressional raceIn 2016, we examined both the previous midterm of 2014 and presidential elections of 2012 and 2008 in order to make more educated predictions regarding congressional racein order to make more educated predictions regarding congressional races.

Oakeshott also said Cable had known about the controversial voting predictions — which suggested Clegg would lose his seat along with three other MPs — several weeks before the party's disastrous showing in the European and council elections.

But we must upend the conventional wisdom and nay - saying predictions by becoming much more involved in these elections to ensure stronger - than - ever Democratic turnout.

In the case of the US election it's got to be one of two people who wins so making a prediction is as easy as flipping a coin.

Contrary to the predictions of commentators such as Dan Hodges (who promptly declared after the famous LBC interview that «Farage is finished»), the number of voters who say they plan to vote Ukip in 2015 has risen, from 12 % in the pre-European election period to 16 % post-election.

I stopped making predictions after 2008, when I was certain Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton would face off in the presidential general election.

That's about average for off - year local elections, way short of predictions from advocates of single - member districts, who had argued that replacing multi-member districts with one - on - one contests voters would result in better - known candidates and greater voter participation.

In a year marked by less than glamorous elections and predictions of more anemic turnout, Erie County's political contests are still generating intense interest from the most basic standpoint of all: Democrat vs. Republican.

ELECTION NIGHT PREDICTION - Repeating what I said several weeks ago, based on the e-mail I have received, I predict that, in November elections, the Republicans will be swept from power.

Asked about the result, press secretary Jay Carney said, «Special elections are often unique and their outcomes don't tell you very much about future regularly scheduled elections... You can make those predictions and look foolish in 14 months or not, I'm simply saying we do not view them that way [as a referendum].»

Reynolds tried to steer away from making specific predictions about how many seats his party would gain or lose come November, promising only that Republicans would retain the majority in the midterm elections.