If the ocean bulk does not change temperature then there will be surface effects only and they will be negated by a faster water cycle for no change
in equilibrium temperature.
where ΔT represents the change
in the equilibrium temperature, C represents the CO2 level and Co represents the CO2 level at which ΔT is nil.
Clearly there will be a rise
in the equilibrium temperature but that will be accompanied by a faster flow of air in and out of the door.
The simplified physical models predict an increase
in the equilibrium temperature.
If it can not warm the oceans and yet the radiative balance between solar energy in and radiative energy out has to be maintained then all that is left is for it to be ejected faster to space in order to maintain the radiative balance and if that happens then no change
in the equilibrium temperature of the Earth can occur.
However if one were to change the conductive characteristics of the sides, top and bottom then the change
in equilibrium temperature would be significant.
Standard texts make clear that they are deriving the change
in the equilibrium temperature, without clarifying what, if anything, in the Earth climate system is represented by the calculated result.
How is it known that the predicted increase
in the equilibrium temperature relates to anything in the actual climate system?
Simply put the climate change debate is strictly whether it is changes to the incoming or outgoing energy that is causing a shift
in the equilibrium temperature and all evidence points to the fact that it is the changes to the incoming energy that is by far the dominant driver with changes to the outgoing energy from the enhanced greenhouse effect too insignificant to even be detected.
So raising the surface pressure will not cause a rise
in equilibrium temperature.
The atmosphere has to configure itself accordingly and there can never be any increase or decrease
in equilibrium temperature beyond that set by pressure and solar input.
If the net effect of more GHGs is actually system cooling then the reverse scenario would apply, still with no change
in equilibrium temperature.
As the change
in the equilibrium temperature is not an observable, the notion that there is an equilibrium climate sensitivity is scientific nonsense.
Not exact matches
At any given
temperature, there is a particular concentration of gaseous iodine that is
in equilibrium with solid iodine.
At any real
temperature (one that is above absolute zero) all the components of the crystal are
in motion, but all remain near their
equilibrium positions.9
At the moment, the kelvin is defined
in terms of the
temperature at which ice, liquid water and water vapour can coexist
in equilibrium — 273.16 K or 0.01 °C.
Setting each of the qubits
in its own heat bath, each at a different
temperature, throws the system out of
equilibrium.
The computer was allowed to run until conditions stabilized at a new
equilibrium, and a map could be drawn showing changes
in temperature, precipitation, and other factors.
Using global climate models and NASA satellite observations of Earth's energy budget from the last 15 years, the study finds that a warming Earth is able to restore its
temperature equilibrium through complex and seemingly paradoxical changes
in the atmosphere and the way radiative heat is transported.
«This emphasizes the importance of large - scale energy transport and atmospheric circulation changes
in restoring Earth's global
temperature equilibrium after a natural, unforced warming event,» Li said.
There's just one catch: The material must be «
in equilibrium,» meaning that any particle motions must be due to the effect of the material's
temperature rather than any external forces acting on the particles.
Scientists currently define the kelvin and the degree Celsius using the
temperature of the triple point of water — the point at which liquid water, solid ice and water vapour can all exist
in equilibrium.
The idea of climate inertia is that when you increase the CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere it takes the climate system a good deal of time for all its components to fully adjust and reach a new
equilibrium temperature.
The «
equilibrium» sensitivity of the global surface
temperature to solar irradiance variations, which is calculated simply by dividing the absolute
temperature on the earth's surface (288K) by the solar constant (1365Wm - 2), is based on the assumption that the climate response is linear
in the whole
temperature band starting at the zero point.
Given that it doesn't matter much which forcing is changing, sensitivity can be assessed from any particular period
in the past where the changes
in forcing are known and the corresponding
equilibrium temperature change can be estimated.
While ECS is the
equilibrium global mean
temperature change that eventually results from atmospheric CO2 doubling, the smaller TCR refers to the global mean
temperature change that is realised at the time of CO2 doubling under an idealised scenario
in which CO2 concentrations increase by 1 % yr — 1 (Cubasch et al., 2001; see also Section 8.6.2.1).
In equilibrium, global
temperature is indeed directly determined by the global radiation balance.
So we don't really know the
temperature lag or how the
temperature is supposed to behave until
equilibrium, and the sensitivity will be difficult to confirm by direct observation (say,
in our lifetime)?
If a spike
in temperatures due to CO2 causes a non-reversible change
in ice cover, you have a situation more analogous to a deglaciation because you now have a forcing that has a strong effect on the
equilibrium amount of CO2
in the atmosphere.
As such a pulse of water vapor won't stay
in the atmosphere long enough to raise the
temperature significantly and the original
equilibrium (prior to the pulse) will be quickly re-established.
It is worth adding though, that
temperature trends over the next few decades are more likely to be correlated to the TCR, rather than the
equilibrium sensitivity, so if one is interested
in the near - term implications of this debate, the constraints on TCR are going to be more important.
So here's an attempt: When
temperatures change because of an orbital forcing, you've got a strong CO2 feedback because the CO2
in the atmosphere was
in equilibrium with the CO2
in the oceans before
temperatures changed.
It revolves around GJ 1214 at an average distance of 0.014 AU,
in a roughly circular orbit (e < 0.27) which it completes
in 1.6 days (38 hours), and so the planet must have a very hot
equilibrium temperature — updated
in 2011 to around 555 kelvin, 539 ° Fahrenheit, or 282 ° Celsius (Desert et al, 2011, page 6).
The radiative
equilibrium temperature is 262K for a planet
in Kepler - 22b's orbit.
The primary limit to the pressure of a vapor
in equilibrium with a liquid (or solid) at a given T is governed by the Clausius - Clapeyron equation; the vapor pressure is a rapidly increasing function of
temperature, and the T dependence is determined by the magnitude of the latent heat of vaporization.
They conclude, based on study of CMIP5 model output, that
equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is not a fixed quantity — as
temperatures increase, the response is nonlinear, with a smaller effective ECS
in the first decades of the experiments, increasing over time.
To touch upon Eli's so far ignored question (# 3) on bridging the hierarchy of models: The issue at stake is the curvatuve
in a plot of N vs. Ts, where N is basically the TOA imbalance (which decays to zero as
equilibrium is approached) and Ts is the surface
temperature.
After warming stops, an
equilibrium will be reached
in which the frequency of water molecules entering the atmosphere from the liquid will equal the frequencey of molecules entering the liquid from the atmosphere resulting
in an
equilibrium of transfer of water molecules and (if atmosphere and liquid are the same
temperature) of energy transfers.
For each planetary candidate, the
equilibrium surface
temperatures are derived from «grey - body spheres without atmospheres... [and] calculations assume a Bond albedo of 0.3, emissivity of 0.9, and a uniform surface
temperature... [with uncertainties of] approximately 22 %... because of uncertainties
in the stellar size, mass, and
temperature as well as the planetary albedo.»
First let's define the «
equilibrium climate sensitivity» as the «
equilibrium change
in global mean surface
temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric (equivalent) CO2 concentration.
ACT - activated clotting time (bleeding disorders) ACTH - adrenocorticotropic hormone (adrenal gland function) Ag - antigen test for proteins specific to a disease causing organism or virus Alb - albumin (liver, kidney and intestinal disorders) Alk - Phos, ALP alkaline phosphatase (liver and adrenal disorders) Allergy Testing intradermal or blood antibody test for allergen hypersensitivity ALT - alanine aminotransferase (liver disorder) Amyl - amylase enzyme — non specific (pancreatitis) ANA - antinuclear antibody (systemic lupus erythematosus) Anaplasmosis Anaplasma spp. (tick - borne rickettsial disease) APTT - activated partial thromboplastin time (blood clotting ability) AST - aspartate aminotransferase (muscle and liver disorders) Band band cell — type of white blood cell Baso basophil — type of white blood cell Bile Acids digestive acids produced
in the liver and stored
in the gall bladder (liver function) Bili bilirubin (bile pigment responsible for jaundice from liver disease or RBC destruction) BP - blood pressure measurement BUN - blood urea nitrogen (kidney and liver function) Bx biopsy C & S aerobic / anaerobic bacterial culture and antibiotic sensitivity test (infection, drug selection) Ca +2 calcium ion — unbound calcium (parathyroid gland function) CBC - complete blood count (all circulating cells) Chol cholesterol (liver, thyroid disorders) CK, CPK creatine [phospho] kinase (muscle disease, heart disease) Cl - chloride ion — unbound chloride (hydration, blood pH) CO2 - carbon dioxide (blood pH) Contrast Radiograph x-ray image using injected radiopaque contrast media Cortisol hormone produced by the adrenal glands (adrenal gland function) Coomb's anti- red blood cell antibody test (immune - mediated hemolytic anemia) Crea creatinine (kidney function) CRT - capillary refill time (blood pressure, tissue perfusion) DTM - dermatophyte test medium (ringworm — dermatophytosis) EEG - electroencephalogram (brain function, epilepsy) Ehrlichia Ehrlichia spp. (tick - borne rickettsial disease) EKG, ECG - electrok [c] ardiogram (electrical heart activity, heart arryhthmia) Eos eosinophil — type of white blood cell Fecal, flotation, direct intestinal parasite exam FeLV Feline Leukemia Virus test FIA Feline Infectious Anemia: aka Feline Hemotrophic Mycoplasma, Haemobartonella felis test FIV Feline Immunodeficiency Virus test Fluorescein Stain fluorescein stain uptake of cornea (corneal ulceration) fT4, fT4ed, freeT4ed thyroxine hormone unbound by protein measured by
equilibrium dialysis (thyroid function) GGT gamma - glutamyltranferase (liver disorders) Glob globulin (liver, immune system) Glu blood or urine glucose (diabetes mellitus) Gran granulocytes — subgroup of white blood cells Hb, Hgb hemoglobin — iron rich protein bound to red blood cells that carries oxygen (anemia, red cell mass) HCO3 - bicarbonate ion (blood pH) HCT, PCV, MHCT hematocrit, packed - cell volume, microhematocrit (hemoconcentration, dehydration, anemia) K + potassium ion — unbound potassium (kidney disorders, adrenal gland disorders) Lipa lipase enzyme — non specific (pancreatitis) LYME Borrelia spp. (tick - borne rickettsial disease) Lymph lymphocyte — type of white blood cell MCHC mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (anemia, iron deficiency) MCV mean corpuscular volume — average red cell size (anemia, iron deficiency) Mg +2 magnesium ion — unbound magnesium (diabetes, parathyroid function, malnutrition) MHCT, HCT, PCV microhematocrit, hematocrit, packed - cell volume (hemoconcentration, dehydration, anemia) MIC minimum inhibitory concentration — part of the C&S that determines antimicrobial selection Mono monocyte — type of white blood cell MRI magnetic resonance imaging (advanced tissue imaging) Na + sodium ion — unbound sodium (dehydration, adrenal gland disease) nRBC nucleated red blood cell — immature red blood cell (bone marrow damage, lead toxicity) PCV, HCT, MHCT packed - cell volume, hematocrit, microhematocrit (hemoconcentration, dehydration, anemia) PE physical examination pH urine pH (urinary tract infection, urolithiasis) Phos phosphorus (kidney disorders, ketoacidosis, parathyroid function) PLI pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity (pancreatitis) PLT platelet — cells involved
in clotting (bleeding disorders) PT prothrombin time (bleeding disorders) PTH parathyroid hormone, parathormone (parathyroid function) Radiograph x-ray image RBC red blood cell count (anemia) REL Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever / Ehrlichia / Lyme combination test Retic reticulocyte — immature red blood cell (regenerative vs. non-regenerative anemia) RMSF Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever SAP serum alkaline phosphatase (liver disorders) Schirmer Tear Test tear production test (keratoconjunctivitis sicca — dry eye,) Seg segmented neutrophil — type of white blood cell USG Urine specific gravity (urine concentration, kidney function) spec cPL specific canine pancreatic lipase (pancreatitis)-- replaces the PLI test spec fPL specific feline pancreatic lipase (pancreatitis)-- replaces the PLI test T4 thyroxine hormone — total (thyroid gland function) TLI trypsin - like immunoreactivity (exocrine pancreatic insufficiency) TP total protein (hydration, liver disorders) TPR
temperature / pulse / respirations (physical exam vital signs) Trig triglycerides (fat metabolism, liver disorders) TSH thyroid stimulating hormone (thyroid gland function) UA urinalysis (kidney function, urinary tract infection, diabetes) Urine Cortisol - Crea Ratio urine cortisol - creatine ratio (screening test for adrenal gland disease) Urine Protein - Crea Ratio urine protein - creatinine ratio (kidney disorders) VWF VonWillebrands factor (bleeding disorder) WBC white blood cell count (infection, inflammation, bone marrow suppression)
Given that it doesn't matter much which forcing is changing, sensitivity can be assessed from any particular period
in the past where the changes
in forcing are known and the corresponding
equilibrium temperature change can be estimated.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration
in the atmosphere, raising
temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists
in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average; decreasing the
temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing
in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme
temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
A few things are unequivocal, perhaps (doubling from the present concentration of CO2 will take 140 years [give or take]; the idea that the changes
in climate since 1880 have been
in the aggregate beneficial; it takes more energy to vaporize a kg of water than to raise its
temperature by 1K; ignoring the energy cost of water and latent heat transport [
in the hydrologic cycle] leads to
equilibrium calculations overestimating the climate sensitivity), but most are propositions that I think need more research, but can't be refuted on present evidence.
Consider a box willed with gas, under two conditions: (1) the first box is
in equilibrium, at high
temperature, and thus has a high energy content; (2) the second box has low energy content, but is out of
equilibrium: it is stirred by turbulent convection, produced by heating from below and cooling from above.
i) the
temperature is not
in equilibrium with the forcing (that takes time) and ii) CO2 is not the only forcing — you need to factor
in aerosols, other greenhouse gases etc. — gavin]
When you say «If the oceans are warming at all, or if the net ice melting is positive, we are not
in equilibrium» it suggests that you see
temperatures inexorably rising towards an
equilibrium.
(Even for a relatively simple example of a gray medium, calculating the
equilibrium temperature profile within a homogeneous slab involves a singular Fredholm integral equation of the second kind as described by M. N. Ozisik
in Radiative Transfer (1973).)
What happens at the «top of atmosphere» — the level where outgoing radiation leaves for space, not itself a very easy concept — is the restoration of
equilibrium, the increase
in temperature that, through Helmholtz - Boltzmann at the Earth's brightness
temperature 255K, restores the balance between incoming and outgoing energies.
In equilibrium there should be no permafrost underneath the ocean, because the ocean is unfrozen, and the sediment gets warmer with depth below that (the geothermal
temperature gradient).