Levels in some lakes represent a changing balance between inputs and outputs and, under one transient scenario, levels in Lake Victoria would initially fall as increases
in evaporation offset changes in precipitation, but subsequently rise as the effects of increased precipitation overtake the effects of higher evaporation (Tate et al., 2004).
Not exact matches
This additional precipitation is sustained by more energy leaving the surface by
evaporation — that is,
in the form of latent heat flux — and thereby
offsets much of the increase
in longwave flux to the surface.
(I think that an anomalously warm ocean surface heated from below would lead to more
evaporation, and the additional water vapor would give a positive greenhouse effect that would partially
offset the effect of a drop
in greenhouse gas concentrations.)
Even
in areas where precipitation does not decrease, these increases
in surface
evaporation and loss of water from plants lead to more rapid drying of soils if the effects of higher temperatures are not
offset by other changes (such as reduced wind speed or increased humidity).5 As soil dries out, a larger proportion of the incoming heat from the sun goes into heating the soil and adjacent air rather than evaporating its moisture, resulting
in hotter summers under drier climatic conditions.6
This increases absorbed IR by a factor of 5,
offset in the hind0 - casting by exaggerated cloud albedo, hence
evaporation and heating rate is artificially increased.
These effects are relatively well understood
in the lowest level of the atmosphere, the troposphere, where increased warming leads to greater
evaporation, causing more water vapour and so further warming, although this is
offset to some extent through the formation of clouds that reflect incoming sunlight back into space.
If the energy required for the extra
evaporation does all or mostly come from the water then as I have explained it has the potential to more than
offset the expected reduction
in energy flow that would otherwise be caused by a warmer topmost few microns according to Fourier's Law.