When governments engage
in financial repression, they tempt ppl to cut corners on safety 4 income $ $ Oct 31, 2012
it's all about investing
in financial repression - regulations, capital controls, loss of purchasing power..
Not exact matches
I would argue that all of these should really count as investment, and certainly the latter two will drop dramatically as investment, especially
in real estate, drops (and the former will probably drop as the
financial repression tax is eliminated).
In this case the «cost» of
financial repression to households was the gap between nominal GDP growth and nominal lending rates, plus an additional 1 - 1.5 % to account for the larger than normal gap between the lending rate and the deposit rate.
Financial repression has been the main explanation for the enormous misallocation of capital spending we have seen
in China during the past decade.
This was why
financial repression, although useful
in the early stages of China's growth period because it turbocharged investment, ultimately became one of the county's biggest problems once investment no longer needed turbocharging.
Financial repression helped foster tremendous growth
in economic activity as privileged borrowers took advantage to borrow and invest
in almost any project for which they could get approval.
Because low - risk investments return roughly 20 % on average
in a country with 20 % nominal GDP growth,
financial repression means that the benefits of growth are unfairly distributed between savers (who get just the deposit rate, say 3 %), banks, who get the spread between the lending and the deposit rate (say 3.5 %) and the borrower, who gets everything else (13.5 %
in this case, assuming he takes little risk — even more if he takes risk).
This is why understanding
financial repression is so important to understanding the way
in which China will adjust.
«Investors are still living
in a world of
financial repression,» Patrick Legland, the global head of research at Societe Generale, said
in a research note on Tuesday morning.
It can be reduced
in the form of implicit debt forgiveness through monetization or
financial repression.
China's debt problems,
in other words, can not be resolved administratively, by fixing the shadow banking system, by imposing discipline on borrowers, or indeed by eliminating
financial repression (much of which, by the way, has already been squeezed out of the system by lower nominal GDP growth).
China's huge portfolio of NPLs at the end of the 1990s (perhaps as much as 40 % of total loans) was resolved by a decade of severe
financial repression, so that lending rates of around 7 % —
in an economy
in which GDP grew nominally by 18 - 20 % and the GDP deflator usually exceed 8 % — implied substantial debt forgiveness.
In China's case these taxes have mostly been indirect and include low wage growth relative to productivity growth, an undervalued currency, environmental degradation, the rights of eminent domain, moral hazard and, most importantly,
financial repression.
Although it's true that
financial repression has traditionally been practiced using the stick of high mandatory reserve requirements, whereas the Fed has instead been employing carrots
in the shape of ON - RRP and IOER interest incentives, the ultimate result — more credit for the government, and less for everyone else — is the same.
Leland describes the Chinese reform as a reversal of
financial repression and this
repression in the context of the Chinese economy is the oppression of consumers and households by state organizations through its economic systems.
The
financial repression process begins at the monetary policy level as a response to some shock
In the economy.
Danielle emphasizes how she understands
financial repression «in her bones» because she worked in «The Financial Repression Factory», referring to the Federal
financial repression «in her bones» because she worked in «The Financial Repression Factory», referring to the Federa
repression «
in her bones» because she worked
in «The
Financial Repression Factory», referring to the Federal
Financial Repression Factory», referring to the Federa
Repression Factory», referring to the Federal Reserve.
FRA Co-Founder Gordon T. Long interviews Leland miller, the president of the china beige book international and discusses
financial repression in the context of the Chinese economy.
Financial repression has continued much longer than we thought possible, and this has,
in our opinion, encouraged investors to overpay for income
in every security type.
Here's an interesting Bloomberg piece on what bond guru Bill Gross is calling «
financial repression», but what you can just call «low interest rates» The big story is that the world is still crawling out of a near - depression, and there is not a central banker
in the developed world who would dare dream of pushing interest rates to anything above a number you could count out on the fingers of one hand (and seriously,
in most countries you could leave out the thumb and index finger as well).
James views
financial repression in light of what Ben Bernake said
in his November 12 op - ed
in the Washington post:
In other words,
financial repression is the inevitable result of a world with low growth and stubbornly high debt.»
Tags: BOC, Fed,
financial repression, Janet Yellen, Loonie, pension funds, RBA, yield curve Posted
in BCB, Currency, Debt Market, Fed, RBA 10 Comments»
While many Senators challenged the negative effects of the Fed's policy for savers —
financial repression in the words of Carmen Reinhart — Yellen noted that people were not just savers but also consumers.
We already knew that the Chinese
financial system was completely distorted from years of regulatory
repression and crony capitalism, as a whole new report on finance
in China by The Economist demonstrates (see the editorial here, and the report starting here).
You recently had a discussion with our co-founder, Gordon T. Long, and I'm just wondering if you can relate that
in terms of how
financial repression has caused the trade wars.
And so
in terms of
financial repression, perhaps the one key sector that we need to look at is student loan debt because so many millennials are carrying student loan debt, and you know a small student loan debt is like $ 25,000 - $ 30,000 if someone can escape with a bachelor's diploma and only have $ 30,000
in debt they're considered to have done quite well, but when you think about it that's a pretty large debt for somebody who doesn't even have a full - time job yet.
And I know your listeners you know
in the realm of the
Financial Repression Authority understand this.
So again, this is as you and I talked from a
financial repression perspective, this is a very empowering concept because it's putting control back
in the hands of individuals and really away from governments and big companies because they're not needed as the middleman.
Richard: Great insight as always, and last time we talked about the commercial real estate bubble and we thought today we'd do a special focus on the millennial generation and how
financial repression through repressed interest rates and quantitative easing has resulted
in asset bubbles that ultimately have affected the millennial generation
in terms of their values, how they look at the economy and life and the way they're conducting themselves
in the economy: what they're facing
in terms of the housing market and the job situation.
Last time we talked about the commercial real estate bubble and we thought today we'd do a special focus on the millennial generation and how
financial repression through repressed interest rates and quantitative easing has resulted
in asset bubbles that ultimately have affected the millennial generation
in terms of their values, how they look at the economy and life and the way they're conducting themselves
in the economy: what they're facing
in terms of the housing market and the job situation.
All these people really wanted was 10 % annual returns, which was achievable strictly with fixed income
in the high - inflation 1970s but has become impossible
in this modern era of
financial repression.
GMO's James Montier has a new paper, The 13th Labour of Hercules: Capital Preservation
in the Age of
Financial Repression
China steals from its consumers (
financial repression) to aid its producers, who
in turn give money to the Party, with whom the producers are
in league.
In real terms,
financial repression means interest rates are unlikely to move much higher over the medium term.
Financial repression was discussed
in the early»70s by Stanford economists.
Savers and investors face high risks and low rewards
in a world of
financial repression.
See his piece, «The 13th Labour of Hercules: Capital Preservation
in the Age of
Financial Repression» on the GMO research page here.
So, at the margin, an investor would probably be wise to give equities a little more benefit of the doubt, and hence a little more weight
in their portfolio than they would do, if the Fed weren't pursuing policies of
financial repression.
[5] Thus,
financial repression is most successful
in liquidating debts when accompanied by inflation and can be considered a form of taxation, [6] or alternatively a form of debasement.
Financial repression comprises «policies that result
in savers earning returns below the rate of inflation»
in order to allow banks to «provide cheap loans to companies and governments, reducing the burden of repayments».
[10][12] «One of the main goals of
financial repression is to keep nominal interest rates lower than they would be
in more competitive markets.
The Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) of the Fed and other central banks is a phenomenon known as «
Financial Repression,» which can be particularly frustrating for near - retirees and savers
in general, who get little or no real return on their savings.
Negative interest rate policy, or NIRP, is the most recently deployed weapon of central bankers
in their long campaign of
financial repression — a deliberate policy of depressing interest rates
in order to transfer wealth from savers (private citizens) to debtors (largely governments).
For the folks at home, this is the James Montier piece to which Jim refers: «The 13th Labour of Hercules: Capital Preservation
in the Age of
Financial Repression» on the GMO research page here.
The phenomenon of «
financial repression» has conspired to keep real (after inflation) interest rates close to zero, unless you're prepared to take on extra credit risk or lock
in to longer terms.
In the article James shows why we have financial repression (a policy that results in consistent negative real interest rates) and what you can do about i
In the article James shows why we have
financial repression (a policy that results
in consistent negative real interest rates) and what you can do about i
in consistent negative real interest rates) and what you can do about it.
On 29 November 2012 GMO published an article by James called The 13th Labour of Hercules: Capital Preservation
in the Age of
Financial Repression
The natives are increasingly restless and pontificators
in Washington who fantasize about job creation via government fiat will do well to temper their appetites
in expectation that today's
financial repression will be a decade - long proposition against the backdrop of less than inspiring demographic trends.