Nevertheless, detecting a significant rise
in global average temperature over the past 100 years would be strong evidence that the climate is indeed changing as the models predict it should.
Approximately 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases
in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5 °C.
10 °C
rises in global average temperatures have not only occurred during the last 600 million years, but they are the defining characteristic of the temperature record over that time.
For increases
in global average temperature of less than 1 to 3 °C above 1980 - 1999 levels, some impacts are projected to produce market benefits in some places and sectors while, at the same time, imposing costs in other places and sectors.
Published today in the journal Nature Geoscience, the paper concludes that limiting the increase
in global average temperatures above pre-industrial levels to 1.5 °C, the goal of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, is not yet geophysically impossible, but likely requires more ambitious emission reductions than those pledged so far.
The U.S. National Research Council (NRC) estimates that every degree Celsius of
warming in global average temperatures means a 5 to 15 percent drop in yield, particularly for corn, in North America.
(a) To hold the increase in the global average temperature [below 1.5 °C][or][well below 2 °C] above pre-industrial levels by ensuring deep reductions in global greenhouse gas [net] emissions;...
The 2009 Copenhagen Accord — the document that emerged from that year's UN Climate Change Conference — enshrined a two - degree rise
in global average temperature as the threshold of «dangerous» human interference in the climate system.
[Also, just to give an idea of the change we are talking about, 5 degrees Celsius might not sound like much, but that is the
difference in global average temperature between the coldest period of an ice age and the hottest period of a warm period or «interglacial» in the Earth's glacial history in the modern epoch.]
It includes an video interview with Kevin Trenberth who predicts a permanent 0.2 to 0.3 C rise
in global average temperatures from the event, assuming a subsequent flip in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from cool to warm phase.
The thick line in figure A shows the underlying trend
in global average temperatures obtained using such a «pattern - recognizing» statistical technique.2 It isn't a straight line, but it clearly indicates a warming trend.
For example, as long as the rise
in global average temperature stays below 3 degrees Celsius, some models predict that global food production could increase because of the longer growing season at mid - to high - latitudes, provided adequate water resources are available.
And more than just matching
wiggles in global average temperature, they showed how the variability in their model resembled the variability in the real temperature record — adding evidence to their case that this part of the Pacific is an important contributor to global temperature variability.
Positive forcing at seasonal to inter-annual scales leads to an average global surface temperature drop from La Nina influence but recharging of OHC (longer term gain), while reduced forcing allows El Nino conditions and temporary
peaks in global average temperature, and OHC reduction (longer term loss).
So, for the last 30 years, climate scientists have carefully explained that no particular climate event could be identified as the consequence of a rise
in global average temperatures driven by the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.
Phrases with «in global average temperature»