The recent jump
in global bond yields represents a reflationary reawakening just a year after deflation and recession...
U.S. protectionism (very real for Canada) and a renewed surge
in global bond yields (a less immediate concern).
Both are being supported by accommodative credit conditions, which have eased in recent weeks mainly owing to sharp declines
in global bond yields.
Following the Trump victory, there has been a rapid back - up
in global bond yields, partly reflecting market anticipation of fiscal expansion in a US economy that is near full capacity.
We see global reflation running further in 2017 and spurring a modest rise
in global bond yields.
The U.S. has often led moves
in global bond yields, such as during the «taper tantrum» of 2013 when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sparked a global bond market rout by signaling the beginning of the end of quantitative easing.
A rise in the US 10 - year yield to 2.998 % (4 - year high) was dollar supportive, and rise
in global bond yields also weighed on gold with the German Bund (0.603 % - 0.639 %), UK Gilt (1.49 % - 1.53 %) reaching 1 - month highs.
Furthermore, we would expect any rises
in global bond yields to be at least partly imported into Canada — with possible implications for the Canadian dollar — and with an uncertain net effect on our economy.
Following the election in the United States, there has been a rapid back - up
in global bond yields, partly reflecting market anticipation of fiscal expansion in a US economy that is near full capacity.
Not exact matches
A spike
in bond yields and a clear change of direction from central banks means there isn't a lot of value
in global bond markets, a fund manager told CNBC on Tuesday.
«A bear market
in bonds calls for more than a
global cyclical upswing, as not all forces that dragged
yields down over the past decades have suddenly vanished,» argued Peter van der Welle, a strategist at Robeco.
Dip
in share prices and
bond yields, along with the upcoming election has had an impact on the state of the
global economy, causing a setback
in business travel growth.
Lewis, fund's chief investment officer, spent nine years at Citigroup as a director of the bank's
global special situations group, a $ 5 billion prop - trading group that specialized
in distressed debt, high -
yield bonds, and value equity.
While many analysts were predicting
bond yields to rise this year as
global economies improve, the suddenness of the move was a large factor
in the recent stock market selloff.
A move up
in the US 10 - year
bond yield (2.965 % - 2.995 %) and mostly firmer
global equities were a headwind for gold.
Global bond yields have declined significantly
in recent months, but at a pace and uniformity that suggests either a climax
in yield - seeking or growing concerns about economic weakness.
We believe a step - up
in risk aversion has led to a structural rise
in precautionary savings, further dragging down
bond yields across the curve — a trend that won't quickly change, as we write
in our
Global macro outlook The safety premium driving low rates.
Since the
global financial crisis
in 2008 - 09, a combination of low inflation expectations and a
bond - buying program by the Federal Reserve have helped keep
bond yields low but they have climbed this year as inflation has picked up and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
«Every time the
bond market moves dramatically and unexpectedly higher
in yield, the consensus forecast plays catch - up,» says Matthew Hornbach,
Global Head of Interest Rate Strategy for Morgan Stanley Research.
In addition,
global bond yields are supporting U.S.
bonds, particularly Treasuries.
In the meantime, gold continues to find support from
global monetary policy and low to negative government
bond yields.
One of the biggest transformations
in global financial markets is the drop
in government
bond yields — not only to historic lows but into negative territory.
The dollar
bond market has turned cold for Indian firms after a record 2017, with rising
global interest rates, geopolitical concerns and market volatility prompting would - be financiers to demand either a higher
yield or invest only
in short - term paper maturing
in two years.
The main exception to this
global pattern has been Japan, where 10 - year
bond yields have remained remarkably stable, generally trading
in the range between 1.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent so far this year (Graph 8).
Global bond yields remain relatively low, reflecting expectations that global interest rates are still likely to remain low for some time, notwithstanding upward revisions to those expectations in the past couple of m
Global bond yields remain relatively low, reflecting expectations that
global interest rates are still likely to remain low for some time, notwithstanding upward revisions to those expectations in the past couple of m
global interest rates are still likely to remain low for some time, notwithstanding upward revisions to those expectations
in the past couple of months.
Bloomberg's
Global Investment Grade Corporate
Bond Index sank by 4 % last year to a trough
in early November, then stabilized as high -
yield cratered further.
The pound fell 1 % after the announcement while
yields on United Kingdom government
bonds declined, aided
in part by concerns expressed by the MPC that the uncertainty surrounding Brexit will continue to weigh on domestic activity, which has slowed even as
global growth has accelerated.
At the same time,
global economic expansion and monetary policy normalization point to a gradual rise
in bond yields over the next five years.
Central bank intervention
in global bond markets has «crowded out» many traditional fixed income investors, driving them to seek
yield and income from non-traditional and riskier asset classes such as high
yield, emerging markets debt, leveraged loans and private credit.
BlackRock's base case for 2017 is that U.S. - led
global reflation will accelerate, bond yields will gradually move higher and returns will remain low, as we write in our 2017 Global Investment Ou
global reflation will accelerate,
bond yields will gradually move higher and returns will remain low, as we write
in our 2017
Global Investment Ou
Global Investment Outlook.
From a
global policy perspective, we think the Fed's recent hikes are the first stage
in a cycle that will later this year see the European Central Bank (ECB) discuss a more normalized rate policy, and then lastly Japan's BoJ may at least expand its 10 - year Japanese government
bond (JGB)
yield target range.
A synchronized rise
in inflation expectations, reflected
in rising
bond yields, shows markets are growing more confident that
global inflation has finally hit bottom.
Meanwhile, emerging market
bonds that make up the J.P. Morgan EMBI
Global Core Index, currently offer similar yields and may benefit from global reflationary trends despite the potential challenge of higher valuations and a rising U.S dollar in the short
Global Core Index, currently offer similar
yields and may benefit from
global reflationary trends despite the potential challenge of higher valuations and a rising U.S dollar in the short
global reflationary trends despite the potential challenge of higher valuations and a rising U.S dollar
in the short term.
The dollar's weakness should continue
in at least the very short term, as
bond yields keep on descending
in the wake of QE2 and investors flock to non-dollar-denominated assets, says Marc Chandler,
global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, based
in New York.
Global bond yields have climbed to 1.58 percent from a record low 1.07 percent
in July, according to the Bloomberg Barclays
Global Aggregate Index.
Over time, MFS has been a leading innovator
in the asset management industry, including creating one of the first
in - house research departments
in the mutual fund industry
in 1932, launching the first high -
yield municipal
bond fund and the first
global balanced fund, and more recently creating «outcome - oriented» products, such as its line of target - risk, target - date, and other asset allocation strategies.
It may be a while before government
yields in the developed world rise enough to entice income seekers, but other areas of the broader
global bond market may be attractive.
If we look at the Bloomberg Barclays
Global Aggregate Financial Yield to Worst (below) we can see that in 2008 yields of global financials bonds spiked above 8 % and since then, they have gradually retreated to lower l
Global Aggregate Financial
Yield to Worst (below) we can see that
in 2008
yields of
global financials bonds spiked above 8 % and since then, they have gradually retreated to lower l
global financials
bonds spiked above 8 % and since then, they have gradually retreated to lower levels.
As
yields go out, it lowers the collateral value of the
bonds and as we were saying earlier before we began the show, Richard, the
global swaps marketplace is over $ 600 trillion and at least $ 400 trillion of that is
in bonds.
From early May to mid June, domestic
bond yields followed
global yields lower on concerns about potential deflationary pressures
in the US and related expectations of easier monetary policy abroad and
in Australia.
On that occasion Australian
bond yields rose significantly more than those
in the US, reflecting market concerns that Australia would not be able to maintain control over inflation
in an environment of strong
global expansion.
The
global bond market's primary benchmark, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury
yield, recently exceeded 3 % for the first time
in several years.
In his January 2016 paper entitled «Finding Yield in A 2 % World», Mebane Faber applies a simple value metric to global government bond
In his January 2016 paper entitled «Finding
Yield in A 2 % World», Mebane Faber applies a simple value metric to global government bond
in A 2 % World», Mebane Faber applies a simple value metric to
global government
bonds.
Naeimi: An ongoing softness
in Chinese growth, transition from mining to non-mining and rising
global bond yields.
Thanks to lackluster
global growth, and rock - bottom interest rates
in the United States — and even negative rates
in other parts of the world — investors face the choice of either accepting lower income or increasing risk
in their
bond portfolios
in the search for
yield.
The fund had major equivalent positions
in the Vanguard High Dividend
Yield ETF (VYM), PowerShares Dynamic Large Cap Value Portfolio (PWV), First Trust Large Cap Growth AlphaDEX ® Fund (FTC), SPDR ® Barclays High
Yield Bond ETF (JNK), SPDR ® S&P ® Homebuilders ETF (XHB), and iShares
Global Consumer Staples ETF (KXI).
Our view on short - term U.S. rates rise fits with our expectation for a moderate rise
in long - term rates — even with the greater uncertainty about the factors influencing
bond yields, including high
global savings.
John Hollyer,
global head of Vanguard Fixed Income Group, discusses the recent rise
in bond yields and what that's meant for Vanguard's
bond funds.
One of the biggest transformations
in global financial markets is the drop
in government
bond yields — not only to historic lows but into negative territory.
The US Fed indicated further moves would be dependent on
global factors and oil prices — a key detail signifying that future rate hikes seem likely to develop on a slower scale, causing a European government
bond market rally on Thursday, sending
yields lower
in the region.