Sentences with phrase «in global climate variability»
It also suggests that the AMV has served an important role in the global climate variability observed during the last century.
https://usclivar.org/ Not exact matches
Growing scarcity In addition to a growing scarcity of natural resources such as land, water and biodiversity «global agriculture will have to cope with the effects of climate change, notably higher temperatures, greater rainfall variability and more frequent extreme weather events such as floods and droughts,» Diouf warned.
However, solar variability alone can not explain the post-1970 global temperature trends, especially the global temperature rise in the last three decades of the 20th Century, which has been attributed by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.»
The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.
«In part Arctic amplification is linked to global warming, and part is natural climate variability, and the challenge for researchers is to separate out the two,» he said.
The new study published in the peer - reviewed journal Global Change Biology says such increased flow variability has the most negative effect on salmon populations of several climate factors considered.
They also influence whether CO2 is stored in the ocean or the atmosphere, which is very important for global climate variability.
It highlights the fact that on multi-year timescales we have to view climate variability in a global perspective, rather than through a basin - wide lens,» says Jing - Jia Luo, co-author of the study and climate scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia.
These analyses, whilst not disproving the anthropogenic global warming theory, do show that the climate we are in today is not unusual in recent history, and therefore the possibility of natural variability causing the warming can not be ruled out, as it seemingly has been by many «independent» scientists, and the IPCC.
His research interests include studying the interactions between El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoons of Asia; identifying possible effects on global climate of changing human factors, such as carbon dioxide, as well as natural factors, such as solar variability; and quantifying possible future changes of weather and climate extremes in a warmer climate.
Yeh, S. - W., and B.P. Kirtman, 2004: Decadal North Pacific sea surface temperature variability and the associated global climate anomalies in a coupled GCM.
Hall, A., and S. Manabe, 1999: The role of water vapour feedback in unperturbed climate variability and global warming.
This basic idea has been taken up by a section of the solar physics community, and a good recent summary of the evidence for the proposition that solar variability is an agent, if not the main agent, of the perceived recent climate change associated with global warming, is given in Hoyt & Schatten (1997).
His research concerns understanding global climate and its variations using observations and covers the quasi biennial oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation and the annular modes of the Arctic oscillation and the Antarctic oscillation, and the dominant spatial patterns in month - to - month and year - to - year climate variability, including the one through which El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific influences climate over North America.
Observed changes in ocean heat content have now been shown to be inconsistent with simulated natural climate variability, but consistent with a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences both on a global scale, and in individual ocean basins.
Natural climate variability of the Arctic atmosphere, the impact of Greenland and PBL stability changes K. Dethloff *, A. Rinke *, W. Dorn *, D. Handorf *, J. H. Christensen ** * AWI Potsdam, ** DMI Copenhagen Unforced and forced long - term model integrations from 500 to 1000 years with global coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea - ice models have been analysed in order to find out whether the different models are able to simulate the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) similar to the real atmosphere.
Despite the difficulties of calibration that makes an absolute radiative imbalance measurement impossible — the anomalies data contains essential information on climate variability that can be used to understand and close out the global energy budget — changes in which are largely OHC.
«There is high confidence that the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain the dominant mode of natural climate variability in the 21st century with global influences in the 21st century, and that regional rainfall variability it induces likely intensifies.
«Global ice» does have a long term decline, but because of the out of phase seasons in each hemisphere, and the large interannual variability — particularly in the south, it isn't a reliable guide to what is going on with the climate.
Brown, P. T., W. Li, L. Li, and Y. Ming (2014), Top - of - atmosphere radiative contribution to unforced decadal global temperature variability in climate models, Geophys.
If we have some time to prepare, the combination of lowering all the discussed emissions, utilizing current technology to implement alternative energy sources, and engineering new twists on said technology to both continue lowering emissions and adapting to global climate changes as well, we may be able to guide our response sets to outside, artificial selective pressures in conjunction with natural ones; natural, internal variability and external forcings / feedbacks.
In the next 50 years, even the lower limit of impending climate change — an additional global mean warming of 1 degree Celsius above the last decade — is far beyond the range of climate variability experienced during the past thousand years and poses global problems in planning for and adapting to iIn the next 50 years, even the lower limit of impending climate change — an additional global mean warming of 1 degree Celsius above the last decade — is far beyond the range of climate variability experienced during the past thousand years and poses global problems in planning for and adapting to iin planning for and adapting to it.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureClimate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
Brown, P. T., W. Li, and S. P. Xie (2015), Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models, J. Geophys.
The climate change literature offers a reasonable consensus that anthropogenic global climate change is increasing the variability of climate, including central Pacific El Niño events and temperature fluctuations in tropical and subtropical regions.
Given obviously irregular character of all historical data regarding climate, it is a tough sell to start with an assumption that everything is in a global equilibrium, and only spontaneous external events like eruptions or large meteors are the cause of that variability.
Thus, the title of the USF press release, «Frogs Getting Sick from Climate Change,» is accurate in suggesting that climate change caused increased frog infection and infection - induced mortality, whether one interprets «climate change» as referring to the short - term temperature shifts investigated by our experiments, or to increased temperature variability caused by global climate Climate Change,» is accurate in suggesting that climate change caused increased frog infection and infection - induced mortality, whether one interprets «climate change» as referring to the short - term temperature shifts investigated by our experiments, or to increased temperature variability caused by global climate climate change caused increased frog infection and infection - induced mortality, whether one interprets «climate change» as referring to the short - term temperature shifts investigated by our experiments, or to increased temperature variability caused by global climate climate change» as referring to the short - term temperature shifts investigated by our experiments, or to increased temperature variability caused by global climate climate change.
It's painfully easy to paint oneself logically into a corner by arguing that either (i) vigorous natural variability caused 20th century climate change, but the climate is insensitive to radiative forcing by greenhouse gases; or (ii) the climate is very sensitive to greenhouse gases, but we still are able to attribute details of inter-decadal wiggles in the global mean temperature to a specific forcing cause.
«Climate forcing results in an imbalance in the TOA radiation budget that has direct implications for global climate, but the large natural variability in the Earth's radiation budget due to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean dynamics complicates this picture.Climate forcing results in an imbalance in the TOA radiation budget that has direct implications for global climate, but the large natural variability in the Earth's radiation budget due to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean dynamics complicates this picture.climate, but the large natural variability in the Earth's radiation budget due to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean dynamics complicates this picture.»
What we find is that when interannual modes of variability in the climate system have what I'll refer to as an «episode,» shifts in the multi-decadal global mean temperature trend appear to occur.
The climate system appears to have had three distinct «episodes» during the 20th century (during the 1910's, 1940's, and 1970's), and all three marked shifts in the trend of the global mean temperature, along with changes in the qualitative character of ENSO variability.
«Because the global earth system is highly complicated, until a relationship between actual storm intensity and tropical climate change is clearly demonstrated, it would be premature to conclude that such a link exists or is significant (from the standpoints of either event or outcome risk) in the context of variability.»
Starting from an old equilbrium, a change in radiative forcing results in a radiative imbalance, which results in energy accumulation or depletion, which causes a temperature response that approahes equilibrium when the remaining imbalance approaches zero — thus the equilibrium climatic response, in the global - time average (for a time period long enough to characterize the climatic state, including externally imposed cycles (day, year) and internal variability), causes an opposite change in radiative fluxes (via Planck function)(plus convective fluxes, etc, where they occur) equal in magnitude to the sum of the (externally) imposed forcing plus any «forcings» caused by non-Planck feedbacks (in particular, climate - dependent changes in optical properties, + etc.).)
Global temperature has in recent years increased more slowly than before, but this is within the normal natural variability that always exists, and also within the range of predictions by climate models — even despite some cool forcing factors such as the deep solar minimum not included in the models.
There can / will be local and regional, latitudinal, diurnal and seasonal, and internal variability - related deviations to the pattern (in temperature and in optical properties (LW and SW) from components (water vapor, clouds, snow, etc.) that vary with weather and climate), but the global average effect is at least somewhat constrained by the global average vertical distribution of solar heating, which requires the equilibrium net convective + LW fluxes, in the global average, to be sizable and upward at all levels from the surface to TOA, thus tending to limit the extent and magnitude of inversions.)
Natural climate variability — including the periodic swings between El Nià ± o and La Nià ± a conditions in the Pacific — will sometimes overshadow global warming's influence on hurricanes, Trenberth said.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: «a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods&Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: «a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods&climate change as: «a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods&climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods&climate variability observed over comparable time periods».
«a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over considerable time periods.»
Ellsaesser on global warming: «Natural variability in the Earth's climate easily exceeds recent global temperature trends.»
There is also a natural variability of the climate system (about a zero reference point) that produces El Nino and La Nina effects arising from changes in ocean circulation patterns that can make the global temperature increase or decrease, over and above the global warming due to CO2.
Indeed, the very strong interannual variability of global hurricane ACE (energy) highly correlated to ENSO, suggests that the role of tropical cyclones in climate is modulated very strongly by the big movers and shakers in large - scale, global climate.
«Climate Change» refers to the general subject matter of changes in global or regional climates that persist overtime, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.»
The SPARC database that was used for many global model runs for the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) displays the least interannual variability and the most conservative trends in ozone of the available databases.
The global atmospheric circulation has a number of preferred patterns of variability, all of which have expressions in surface climate.
«Because the primary source of ions in the global troposphere is galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), their role in atmospheric nucleation is of considerable interest as a possible physical mechanism for climate variability caused by the Sun.»
In my earlier posting, I tried to make the distinction that global climate change (all that is changing in the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenIn my earlier posting, I tried to make the distinction that global climate change (all that is changing in the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenin the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenin greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trend.
«Anthropogenic Climate change» means a quantified change of climate which isattributed directly or indirectly to human activity and distinguished from natural causes that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate trends and variability observed over comparable time pClimate change» means a quantified change of climate which isattributed directly or indirectly to human activity and distinguished from natural causes that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate trends and variability observed over comparable time pclimate which isattributed directly or indirectly to human activity and distinguished from natural causes that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate trends and variability observed over comparable time pclimate trends and variability observed over comparable time periods.
First, Happer mentions statistical significance, but global surface temperature trends are rarely if ever statistically significant (at a 95 % confidence level) over periods as short as a decade, even in the presence of an underlying long - term warming trend, because of the natural variability and noise in the climate system.
Our ability to quantify the human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors.
Since the «pause», «hiatus», «slowdown», or «standstill», «global» climate models have had regional temperatures re calibrated (tuned) in order to try and simulate natural variability like ENSO, AMO etc..