The Earthshine project shows that the solar induced reduction
in global cloudiness did not reverse until about 2000 but we see that the highest level of ocean alkalinity was around 1988.
From 1988 to 1998 there would have been a complex interaction between the ENSO cycle and the amount of sunshine entering the oceans from changes
in global cloudiness.
Thus there is a back and forth
in global cloudiness as the Sun's activity level changes over the decades and centuries — such as during the period covering the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the current warm period — through latitudinal shifting of the jet stream tracks and permanent climate zones.
The changes in both satellite derived and measured surface insolation data are also in line with changes
in global cloudiness provided by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), which show an increase until the late 1980s and a decrease thereafter, on the order of 5 % from the late 1980s to 2002.
That allows latitudinal sliding of the jets and climate zones below the tropopause leading to changes
in global cloudiness and albedo with alters the amount of energy getting into the oceans.»
Not exact matches
In addition to
global evapotranspiration trends, they examined vegetation greenness and general climate data including temperature, precipitation and
cloudiness.
He said: «Tropical glaciers are the canaries
in the coalmine for our
global climate system, as they integrate and respond to most of the key climatological variables — temperature, precipitation,
cloudiness, humidity and radiation.»
Your earlier # 182 was equally disconcerting where you quoted Norris and Slingo (2009) saying «At present, it is not known whether changes
in cloudiness will exacerbate, mitigate, or have little effect on the increasing
global surface temperature caused by anthropogenic greenhouse radiative forcing.»
By analogy, a warmer world wouldn't be rainier (or cloudier); it's an imperfect analogy, because rain isn't absolutely correlated with
cloudiness, and lateral transport of energy by ocean, air, and latent heat currents
in and out of the E & W Pacific Ocean areas won't scale to
global warming
The figures showing a strong correlation between low
cloudiness and GCRs was also the high - point of a television climate - denier polemic shown last night on Channel 4 here
in the UK, entitled The Great
Global Warming Swindle.
The resulting reduction
in cloudiness, especially of low - altitude clouds, may be a significant factor
in the
global warming Earth has undergone during the last century.»
Thus it appears that, provided further satellite cloud data confirms the cosmic ray flux low cloud seeding hypothesis, and no other factors were involved over the past 150 years (e.g., variability of other cloud layers) then there is a potential for solar activity induced changes
in cloudiness and irradiance to account for a significant part of the
global warming experienced during the 20th century, with the possible exception of the last two decades.
They think that it's a change
in humidity or
cloudiness, but point out that even that could be part of the remote impact of a
global climate change signal.
Consequently, as they say slightly earlier
in the abstract: «At present, it is not known whether changes
in cloudiness will exacerbate, mitigate, or have little effect on the increasing
global surface temperature caused by anthropogenic greenhouse radiative forcing.»
I would therefore argue that for the
global mean the well - mixed GHGs and the counterbalancing reflecitve aerosol effects are «first - order» — without GHGs there is no appreciable warming signal, and without the aerosols, the warming from GHGs is excessive and important changes
in the diurnal cycle and
cloudiness are not captured.
«
Cloudiness as a
Global Climate Feedback Mechanism: The Effects of Radiation Balance and Surface Temperature of Variations
in Cloudiness.»
Basically an active sun reduces
global cloudiness to allow more solar energy into the oceans which skews ENSO
in favour of stronger El Ninos relative to La Ninas.
The physical effects are seen
in changes of rainfall,
cloudiness, wind - strength and temperature, which are customarily lumped together
in the misleading phrase «
global warming».
Murry Salby who is suggesting that ocean and soil moisture data shows that the observed rise
in atmospheric CO2 might well be entirely from natural causes and Roy Spencer who suggests that variations
in oceans and sun affecting
global cloudiness make it impossible to verify the sign of the climate system response to more CO2
in the air.
I assume that if there is a
global trend
in cloudiness that has come to R. Pielke's attention, it would consist of data rather than a general statement.
If the surface pressure distribution begins to shift to a more meridional / equatorward pattern as it did around 2000 then if previously it was
in a poleward / zonal mode it is clear that warming will have ceased and cooling has begun due to more
global cloudiness and less solar energy getting into the oceans.
An active sun gives more zonal jets and / or more poleward climate zones with less
global cloudiness and more energy into the oceans for gradually strengthening El Ninos as compared to La Ninas and a gradual rise
in global tropospheric temperatures.
Could you contrast and compare the recent
global trends
in absolute humidity, precipitation and
cloudiness in order to support or reject your implied position that there is no water vapor feedback.
Less strong El Ninos since 1998 have helped to flatten the decline
in alkalinity but we can see that the decline remains
in progress due to increased
global cloudiness at a time of a less active sun and less sunshine into the oceans.
It is a given that the existing models do not fully incorporate data or mechanisms involving
cloudiness or
global albedo (reflectivity) variations or variations
in the speed of the hydrological cycle and that the variability
in the temperatures of the ocean surfaces and the overall ocean energy content are barely understood and wholly inadequately quantified
in the infant attempts at coupled ocean / atmosphere models.
Lastly, there is a latitudinal variation
in the cloud cover, such that around 20 ° N there are regions with 0.10 less
cloudiness than the
global mean.
He said: «Tropical glaciers are the canaries
in the coalmine for our
global climate system, as they integrate and respond to most of the key climatological variables — temperature, precipitation,
cloudiness, humidity and radiation.»
Mike, I have long felt that a decrease
in cloudiness better explains such things as glacier retreat than the small increase
in global average temperature.