There is not supposed to be an increase in snow covering a larger area of the earth (as he pointed out in a previous post)
in global warming predictions.
When people wonder about the degree of certainty
in global warming predictions versus next week's weather report, they are confusing climate and weather.
A: When people wonder about the degree of certainty
in global warming predictions versus next week's weather report, they are confusing climate and weather.
These observations should be considered in the testing of cloud parameterizations in climate models, which remain sources of substantial uncertainty
in global warming prediction.»
Studies of the Arctic and Antarctic play an important role
in global warming prediction.
Not exact matches
... A number of scientific studies indicate that most
global warming in recent decades is due to the great concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and others) released mainly as a result of human activity... Doomsday
predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain.
Dr Svetlana Jevrejeva from the NOC, who is the lead author on this paper, said «Coastal cities and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have very little time to adapt to the fast sea level rise these
predictions show,
in scenarios with
global warming above two degree.
He does point out that
predictions of the impact of
global warming made back
in the 1970s named the Wordie and James Ross shelves as the first to go.
If carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere doubled from its pre-industrial level, the graph suggested,
global warming would rise far above the widely accepted
prediction of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C.
People who claim we can stop worrying about
global warming on the basis of a cooler year or a cooler decade — or just on questionable
predictions of cooling — are as naive as a child mistaking a falling tide, or a spring low tide, for a real long - term fall
in sea level.
These changes have been compounded by stronger waves
in the North Sea
in recent decades, and could be further exacerbated if
predictions that storminess will increase with
global warming prove accurate.
Global warming is expected
in the future, but precipitation
predictions are more variable.
In fact, if anything, I would say that the IPCC
predictions underestimated the speed at which
global warming is now progressing.
Now the question is, can the real climate scientists come forward and present the truth about
global warming, or are we
in for more ridiculous
predictions about an ice free arctic by 2013 and the extinction of polar bears?
Climatologist Jack Hall (Dennis Quaid) finds his dire
predictions about
global warming and the future of the world falling on deaf ears — until the forecasted weather changes begin happening
in a matter of hours instead of the anticipated years or decades.
The fact that the hindcasts with their method perform worse than a standard IPCC scenario, the number of failed previous cooling
predictions, the negative skill
in the Gulf Stream and deep - water formation regions... should these not have cautioned them against going to the media to forecast a pause
in global warming?
[Response: For the record, I think any reasonably educated person, whether with a technical degree or not, should be able to understand and critically evaluate the basic arguments involved
in predictions of
global warming.
But
in no case should a reporter who wishes to portray with accuracy the debates about
global warming, present a minority view unbacked by science and promoted by businesses with a small, old dog
in a very tough dog fight, as equivalent to hard science from unbiased scientists with no economic interest
in anything but getting the facts and
predictions right.
The IPCC
predictions of
global warming imply that, at the very least, millions of people will die as a result of climate change, much like the casualty numbers
in World Wars I and II.
When I look at reports
in the media, and public perception
in general, however, any evidence that
global warming is real and is already making extreme weather and, hence, terrible suffering more likely today is far, far more powerful than the most terrifying
prediction for 2100.
Three IPCC climate models, recent NASA Aqua satellite data, and a simple 3 - layer climate model are used together to demonstrate that the IPCC climate models are far too sensitive, resulting
in their
prediction of too much
global warming in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Every now and again, the myth that «we shouldn't believe
global warming predictions now, because
in the 1970's they were predicting an ice age and / or cooling» surfaces.
In fact, if anything, I would say that the IPCC
predictions underestimated the speed at which
global warming is now progressing.
However, I don't agree that Al Gore is sensationalizing hurricanes — what Gore is saying is certainly
in the realm of possibilities, and although Gore's general message is dead on (and I do think is being confirmed by events such as rapid arctic melting), I don't expect 100 % certainty
in his
predictions (especially since it seems that the lessening of snow on Mt. Kilimanjaro isn't due to
global warming.
I have yet to find where any of our perfect extremist Republicans and Christians bothered to make any
predictions concerning Dolly to prove any expertise
in natural cycles, counting with fingers and toes, passing urine tests, use of a calendar, meteorology, climatology, ecology, or a million other loose ends within
global warming.
if it's any consolation, the recent
predictions discussed on this blog of a «pause»
in northern hemisphere
global warming — and, indeed, cooling
in the u.s. — may signal the end of the line for the california wine growers.
Yet we know well that our current flooding
predictions will be entirely obsolete
in less than two decades, as thousands of miles of coastlines are slowly claimed by rising seas, due both to coastal subsidence and
global warming.
This is
in sharp contrast to the standard
global warming predictions of events 80 + years from now.
In 2008, there was substantial coverage — including by me (print, blog)-- of a provocative paper in Nature attempting a short - term prediction that global warming would stop for awhile, driven mainly by cooling around the North Atlanti
In 2008, there was substantial coverage — including by me (print, blog)-- of a provocative paper
in Nature attempting a short - term prediction that global warming would stop for awhile, driven mainly by cooling around the North Atlanti
in Nature attempting a short - term
prediction that
global warming would stop for awhile, driven mainly by cooling around the North Atlantic.
In fact, I have yet to see a serious cause of
global warming mentioned where this doesn't manage to fit the
prediction.
Glad to see you admit that the
global warming predictions of Svante Arrhenius made
in 1896 have been confirmed.
* «Princeton physicist Will Happer's WSJ op - ed: «
Global warming models are wrong again»: The former federal official calls climate's «observed response» to more CO2 «not
in good agreement with model
predictions.»»
We won't ever by able to effectively change anything with scary doomsday
predictions, politically driven actions or half baked solutions... If we could just for a moment pull all of our hands out of proverbial the cookie jar stop with the politics and the anti-industry,
global warming and end - of - the - world speak, and realize that our need is to focus on the things we ourselves can do to change our own shade of green, we would be taking one small step
in the right direction.
And you might recall that his March 27 Wall Street Journal op - ed «
Global warming models are wrong again» called the climate's «observed response» to more CO2 «not
in good agreement with model
predictions.»
'' -LSB-...][T] here is no substantive basis for
predictions of sizeable
global warming due to observed increases
in minor greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons,» Lindzen told a gathering at the Heartland Institute's International Conference on Climate Change.
It is the reversal of the
global warming trend that would appear to be being called for within the 10 - year window, the «
prediction'that «entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels» (and note the «could»
in there) isn't within that timespan.
Even if human - caused
global warming could be proven, such dire
predictions ignore the marvelous historic adaptability of humans, who have thrived
in climates ranging from the Arctic to the Sahara.
In light of this prediction and global climate model forecasts for continued high - latitude warming, the ice sheet mass budget deficit is likely to continue to grow in the coming decade
In light of this
prediction and
global climate model forecasts for continued high - latitude
warming, the ice sheet mass budget deficit is likely to continue to grow
in the coming decade
in the coming decades.
In reality, when we compare apples to apples — El Niño years to El Niño years — we've seen more than 0.3 °C global surface warming over the past 18 years, which is in line with climate model prediction
In reality, when we compare apples to apples — El Niño years to El Niño years — we've seen more than 0.3 °C
global surface
warming over the past 18 years, which is
in line with climate model prediction
in line with climate model
predictions.
They start from the premise that
global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, and from the
prediction that for every 1 °C of climate
warming, humans should expect an eventual 2.3 metre rise
in sea levels.
After 25 years of close to a trillion dollars of treasure being expended, thousands of avoidable deaths from hypothermia related health problems amongst the elderly, the destruction of entire industries and large parts of some national economies, science, very expensive science at that has been sent down an innumerable number of dead end paths and rabbit holes
in pursuit of the unpredictable non existent
global warming and it's totally failed
predictions of catastrophes always still to come but which never do.
After all, nobody had
in fact published a firm
prediction of an imminent ice age or runaway
global warming in a peer - reviewed scientific journal.
If you think
global warming is outside
predictions, perhaps you would note that we have had a long string of La Nina / neutral phase
in ENSO.
The
Global Warming Speedometer for January 2001 to June 2016 shows observed warming on the HadCRUT4 and NCEI surface temperature datasets as below IPCC's least prediction in 1990 and somewhat on the low side of its 1995 and 2001 predictions, while the satellite datasets show less warming than all IPCC predictions from 1990 t
Warming Speedometer for January 2001 to June 2016 shows observed
warming on the HadCRUT4 and NCEI surface temperature datasets as below IPCC's least prediction in 1990 and somewhat on the low side of its 1995 and 2001 predictions, while the satellite datasets show less warming than all IPCC predictions from 1990 t
warming on the HadCRUT4 and NCEI surface temperature datasets as below IPCC's least
prediction in 1990 and somewhat on the low side of its 1995 and 2001
predictions, while the satellite datasets show less
warming than all IPCC predictions from 1990 t
warming than all IPCC
predictions from 1990 to 2001.
I note that Hansen's 1988
predictions are a true test of the most important question
in the
global warming question — that of what is the climate / temperature sensitivity to increases / doubling of CO2 and other GHGs.
They also need to take an aggressive role
in calling out other scientists who make dire
predictions but don't really understand the science of
global warming or the uncertainties.
Writing up their findings
in the Journal of Climate, the scientists have noted that the «greatest weakness» of most climate
prediction models, namely their comprehension of the significance of clouds, may be
in «the one aspect that is most crucial for predicting the magnitude of
global warming».
If you were a nerdy scientist and could a great salary for playing computer games
in an air - conditioned office, get
in the media by making a scary climate
prediction, and possibly become famous — maybe even getting to fly to an overseas
global warming conference
in Al Gore's private jet, and while doing all of this you can tell everyone you are working» hard» (9 am to 5 pm heh heh) «to save the Earth»....
The East Coast elites, aging yuppies and metrosexual deadenders who bitterly cling to the CO2 - caused «
global warming» religion are having a tough time... over the last 20 years, winters
in the Northeast region of the U.S. have become more harsh and severe... that's opposite of their climate - doomsday cult leaders»
predictions... instead of getting climate news from the likes of Al Gore and Brian Williams, Northeast denizens of elite enclaves might want to finally introduce themselves to what is called empirical evidence...
Just as a hypothetical example: If climate scientist will tell me that recent pause
in global warming is due to the effect of an inactive sun (which is the reality as reported by following) http://www.spaceweather.com and that they will go back and improve their models to account for this, then I would be more inclined to believe their other claims... Instead the IPCC doubles down on their
predictions and claim the future effects will be worst than they originally thought?