That implies a reengineering of industrial and agricultural processes, a transformation of land - use practices, and a shift
in household consumption.
Rising consumer confidence and low interest rates have contributed to strong growth
in household consumption.
Growth
in household consumption was subdued with business investment and net trade contributing to the annual GDP numbers, in line with the MPC's November Inflation Report.
First, substantial direct or indirect wealth transfers from the state sector to Chinese households will unleash a surge
in household consumption as household income rises (and because the interest on bank deposits is an important source of income for most middle and lower middle class households, if the authorities reduce interest rates, as struggling borrowers are demanding, China actually moves in the wrong direction).
Not exact matches
The value of total
household consumption through the first nine months of 2015 is little changed compared with the same period
in 2014, according to StatsCan data.
«If impending old age is the issue, it can be very difficult to convince
households via lower rates to shift desired
consumption from the future into the present,» Steven Englander, global head of G - 10 foreign - exchange strategy at Citigroup, said
in a note Tuesday.
Moderate
household consumption will be mostly offset by a decline
in business investment.
A more detailed breakdown of the loan data on Monday showed sharp pick - ups
in demand for credit from both
households and companies, auguring well for
consumption and investment.
And the consumer was a bright spot:
household final
consumption expenditure had a positive contribution to GDP growth
in the euro area and the EU28.
That period of reflection appears to have emboldened Poloz's conviction
in the story he's been telling from the start: that international sales of manufactured goods and services would lead a rotation away from the economy's reliance on high commodity prices and
consumption by heavily indebted
households.
«There was still a risk that growth
in consumption might turn out to be weaker than forecast if
household income growth were to increase by less than expected.»
In particular, I looked at the effect of improved health insurance on precautionary savings and
household consumption.
But the driving force behind growth has been mainly rising
household consumption, Zhou said
in remarks published on the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) website on Monday.
$ 185 million revenue change for each percentage point change
in nominal
household consumption growth.
While it is not directly related to replacement rates per se, the authors use pairs of cross sectional data from the GSS and from Statistics Canada's 1992 Family Expenditure Surveys and the 1998 Survey of
Household Spending to illustrate that both real family income and real family
consumption adjusted for
household size tend to be hump - shaped with respect to age and peak
in the 50s, while general satisfaction with life tends to stay relatively constant through different ages.
First, there are several categories of spending by
households that are lumped into the personal
consumption expenditures category
in our official GDP statistics that can fairly be counted as investment.
Having increased their borrowing,
households are less inclined to let
consumption growth run ahead of growth
in incomes for too long.
It also raises the real value of disposable
household income and
in so doing may increase
household consumption.
This reflects changes
in the prices of all goods and services purchased for
consumption by urban
households.
Lastly, the elimination of the one - child policy has the potential to boost
household consumption in the short term and to slow China's worsening demographic picture over the longer run.
Rising income and rising uncertainty both suggest that we should expect higher, not lower,
household savings rates, which
in turn imply that
household income must grow faster, not slower, than
household consumption.
If investment growth falls sharply, especially investment
in the real estate sector, it should cause unemployment to surge, which of course puts downward pressure on
household income growth as well as on
consumption growth, potentially pushing China into a self - reinforcing downward spiral.
First, because they represented a transfer from net savers to net borrowers, they helped to exacerbate the split between the growth
in household income (
households are net savers) and the growth
in GDP (which is generated by net borrowers), and so led directly to the extraordinary imbalance
in the Chinese economy
in which
consumption, as a share of GDP, has declined to perhaps the lowest level ever recorded
in history.
In either case, such
households are well placed to accommodate the extra required payments without needing to adjust their
consumption very much, if at all.
With total payments little changed, the rise
in scheduled payments has had no obvious implications for
household consumption.
If the global economy were to recover much more quickly than most of us expect, and, much more importantly, if Beijing were to initiate a far more aggressive program of privatization and wealth transfer than I think politically possible, perhaps transferring
in the first few years the equivalent of as much as 2 - 5 % of GDP, the surge
in household income could unleash much stronger
consumption growth than we have seen
in the past.
Over time this means that
households will retain a growing share of China's total production of goods and services (at the expense of the elite, of course, who benefitted from subsidized borrowing costs) and so not only will they not be hurt by a sharp fall
in GDP growth, but their
consumption will increasingly drive growth and innovation
in China.
I'll focus my attention on the potential size of the change
in households» cash flows as well as the effect on the
household sector's
consumption.
Something similar happens
in China, where the
household income share of GDP is a much greater constraint on
consumption that
household psychology.
This, combined with widespread moral hazard, had inevitably to result
in both tremendous misuse of capital and a sharp decline
in the
consumption share of GDP (as the
household income share declined)-- both of which of course happened to a remarkable degree
in China.
Moreover, the growth of
household consumption has been sustained; indeed it picked up a touch
in year ended - terms over 2017.
But closing down unnecessary capacity can pay for itself, even if unemployed workers are temporarily put on the government payroll (causing debt to rise, but usually by less than it had before), but only temporarily as Beijing takes other measures to boost
household income through wealth transfers from the state and so to boost
consumption, a form of demand which is likely to be more labor intensive than the demand created
in the process of over-capacity.
The only certain and politically feasible source of debt - free demand is domestic
household consumption, but Chinese
households suffer from the same problem Marriner Eccles identified
in the US
in the 1930s: those who want to spend do not have the resources, and those who have the resources do not want to spend — or
in this case are not able to spend productively.
In the case of the
household sector, both Mr. Flaherty and the Governor of the Bank of Canada are warning Canadians about their high debt levels and urging them to curtail their
consumption and to reduce their debt.
Historically,
household consumption has increased by roughly 0.2 percent for every one percentage point increase
in household debt.
While
household consumption was strong
in the fourth quarter of 2014, it is off to a weak start
in 2015.
Using PSID data from 1976 through 2003, we find that
households that experience an involuntary job loss reduce their
consumption more if they live
in states with higher bankruptcy exemptions.
The revisions showed that
in the first half of 2017,
household consumption and residential investment combined totalled 64.3 per cent as the share of the total economy, a record.
In the case of China, for example, whatever GDP growth turns out to be, and again this is just arithmetic, Chinese
household income growth will be higher and investment growth lower — after nearly thirty years of the reverse relationship — so that the impact of slower growth will be disproportionately smaller on
consumption growth and larger on investment growth.
German investment rates did not rise to match the increase
in savings (
in fact I think investment actually declined), nor did
consumption among ordinary German
households surge.
As savings were force up structurally, whether because of rising income inequality or a declining
household share of GDP, the system responded
in ways that were sustainable (increases
in productive investment) and
in ways that were unsustainable (rising inventory
in China, increases
in speculative investment
in the US, China, and Europe, and increases
in credit - financed
consumption in the US and southern Europe).
The speed with which China's GDP growth slows
in 2013 will tell us a lot about how determined Beijing is to rebalance the economy
in such a way that growth is driven more by higher
household income and
consumption and less by investment funded by rising government and government - related debt.
Spain's
household savings rate fell to its lowest level on record
in the third quarter of last year as high unemployment and wage deflation
in the latest recession obliged them to devote more of their disposable income to
consumption, according to figures released Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).
No matter how I work the numbers it just seems to me very obvious that unless it sharply speeds up the process of transferring wealth to the
household sector so that
consumption can grow much more quickly, China simply does not have ten years
in which to manage a non-disruptive adjustment unless we are willing to make assumptions so heroic that even El Cid would blanche.
Until we understand this do not expect the global crisis to end anytime soon, except perhaps temporarily with a new surge
in credit - fueled
consumption in the US (which will cause the trade deficit to worsen) and more wasted investment
in China (which, because it is financed with cheap debt, which comes at the expense of the
household sector, may simply increase investment at the expense of
consumption).
In the euro area, the household saving rate increased due to a larger fall in real final consumption expenditure -LRB--0.7 %) than in real gross disposable income -LRB--0.4 %
In the euro area, the
household saving rate increased due to a larger fall
in real final consumption expenditure -LRB--0.7 %) than in real gross disposable income -LRB--0.4 %
in real final
consumption expenditure -LRB--0.7 %) than
in real gross disposable income -LRB--0.4 %
in real gross disposable income -LRB--0.4 %).
However, this is changing, and the increase
in the level of
household debt over the past decade is a major shift, with significant knock - on implications for
consumption.
The pick - up
in consumption in the March quarter appears to be continuing and is being supported by further increases
in consumer confidence;
household spending increased by 2 1/2 per cent
in the June quarter and consumer confidence is now at its highest level
in 4 years (Graph 3).
In the September quarter, household consumption rose by 1.1 per cent, a slight increase from the pace in the June quarter, but less than might have been expected given the boost to incomes from the budget measure
In the September quarter,
household consumption rose by 1.1 per cent, a slight increase from the pace
in the June quarter, but less than might have been expected given the boost to incomes from the budget measure
in the June quarter, but less than might have been expected given the boost to incomes from the budget measures.
An additional factor explaining the continued strength of
consumption over the past couple of years has been the strong increase
in household wealth.