Sentences with phrase «in hurricane activity»

It looks like there was a dramatic increase in hurricane activity in the 1996 - 2005 period (and to a lesser extent in the preceding 1986 - 1995 period).

Some have even gone so far as to state that this study proves that recent trends in hurricane activity are part of a natural cycle.

There is evidence suggesting a human contribution to recent changes in hurricane activity as well as in storms outside the tropics, though a confident assessment will require further study.

That study also showed the recent increase in hurricane activity is nothing new.

However, this notion has been challenged on the basis that the instrumental record is too short and unreliable to reveal long - term trends in hurricane activity.

It is used to investigate regional climate change, as well as past and future changes in hurricane activity and other extreme weather events.

So clearly, the argument that the thermohaline circulation is driving the observed increase in Hurricane activity in recent decades has to go out the window if Bryden's claim that the THC has actually slowed over this time frame, is correct.

Researchers disagree over whether the rise in hurricane activity in the gulf over the past few years is driven by human - induced global warming or is only a natural variation.

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University and the study's lead author, says the historical peak in hurricane activity coincided with periods of high sea surface temperatures.

It has been asserted (for example, by the NOAA National Hurricane Center) that the recent upturn in hurricane activity is due to a natural cycle, e.g. the so - called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation («AMO»).

Still, «by putting together this team of people and tackling the problem from different angles using different techniques and looking at different time scales we will have a better understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in hurricane activity across the entire Caribbean Basin.»

However, the AMO did contribute to the lull in hurricane activity from about 1970 to 1990 in the Atlantic.

The first spike in hurricane activity whose existence was forensically gleaned from the Massachusetts mud lasted for a full millenium — from the second century, back when the Roman Empire was still being established, through to 1150.

Scientists thought a prolonged drop in hurricane activity helped push the region into drought from 800 to 950 A.D., when the Mayan civilization collapsed, but recent research shows that might not be the case.

A shift in hurricane activity in the North Atlantic occurred around 1400 when activity picked up from the Bahamas to New England until about 1675.

High hurricane activity continued in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico until 1400, although there was a lull in hurricane activity during this time in New England, according to the new study.

«The global warming influence provides a new background level that increases the risk of future enhancements in hurricane activity,» Trenberth says.

The scientists found that a marked decrease in hurricane activity in the western Caribbean coincided with the late - 19th - century industrial boom linked to growing emissions of carbon dioxide and sulphate aerosols: both exhausts from coal and oil fires.

However, a confident assessment of human influence on hurricanes will require further studies using models and observations, with emphasis on distinguishing natural from human - induced changes in hurricane activity through their influence on factors such as historical sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric vertical stability.

Additionally, Crichton correctly points out that there has been no rise in hurricane activity in the Atlantic over the past few decades (a point unchanged by the record four hurricanes that struck Florida in 2004).

«Our findings,» write the authors, «suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought.»

As noted in our piece, Gray and others advocating such a connection, argue that a recent increase in the intensity of the THC is responsible for the upturn in Hurricane activity.

Thus it is plausible that decadal variations in dustiness could contribute to decadal variations in hurricane activity, but how big might such an effect be?

A couple of commentators (Pat Michaels, Roy Spencer) recently raised an issue about the standard scenarios used to compare climate models, in this case related to a study on the potential increase in hurricane activity.

Roughly a year ago, we summarized the state of play in the ongoing scientific debate over the role of anthropogenic climate change in the observed trends in hurricane activity.

The big problem with much of the discussions about trends in hurricane activity is that the databases that everyone is working from are known to have significant inhomogeneities due to changes in observing practice and technology over the years.

«There is consensus among NOAA hurricane researchers and forecasters that recent increases in hurricane activity are primarily the result of natural fluctuations in the tropical climate system known as the tropical multi-decadal signal.»

The ability to assess longer - term trends in hurricane activity is limited by the quality of available data.

Adding in potential changes in hurricane activity, the likely increase in average annual losses grows up to $ 7.3 billion... If we continue on our current path, by 2050 between $ 66 billion and $ 106 billion worth of existing coastal property will likely be below sea level nationwide... I may or may not live until 2050.

Hurricane climatology also includes the role global warming may have in hurricane activity.»

Adding in potential changes in hurricane activity, the likely increase in average annual losses grows to up to $ 7.3 billion, bringing the total annual price tag for hurricanes and other coastal storms to $ 35 billion.

GFDL's global models are used to study the causes of annual variability and recent trends in hurricane activity, as well as the predictability of the Atlantic hurricane season.

What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from IPCC models?

Through research, GFDL scientists have concluded that it is premature to attribute past changes in hurricane activity to greenhouse warming, although simulated hurricanes tend to be more intense in a warmer climate.

If greenhouse warming causes a substantial increase in hurricane activity, then the century scale increase in global and tropical Atlantic SSTs since the late 1800s should have been accompanied by a long - term rising trend in measures of Atlantic hurricanes activity.