Chan and Au - Yeung say that their research shows the importance of including land - surface variation
in hurricane forecasting in the future.
Even Bill Gray uses SST
in his hurricane forecasts... - gavin]
The physical link between SST and precipitation for any individual hurricane is not controversial, it is routinely exploited
in the hurricane forecast models used by the national hurricane center.
Not exact matches
American Airlines lowers its revenue
forecast in the wake of
Hurricane Irma, which hit its hub
in Miami.
For instance, before the 2005
hurricane season, a Bermuda cat - bond hedge fund called Nephila found a team of oceanographers
in Rhode Island called Accurate Environmental
Forecasting, whose
forecasts of
hurricane seasons had been surprisingly good.
«Some strengthening is
forecast during the next day or two, and Maria could regain major
hurricane status by Thursday,» said the NHC
in its latest advisory, which also called for «catastrophic flash flooding»
in parts of Puerto Rico.
Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is
forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the «highest windspeed
forecasts I've ever seen
in my 10 yrs of Atlantic
hurricane forecasting.»
These are the highest windspeed
forecasts I've ever seen
in my 10 yrs of Atlantic
hurricane forecasting.
When
hurricanes are
forecast in the future, the hospitals will host platelet drives with local blood banks as the storms approach, Philpott said.
The National
Hurricane Center
in Miami has generated a
forecast track for
Hurricane Joaquin that closely follows the path Superstorm Sandy took, raising a New York City strike higher on the list of possibilities.
Six to 10 of those storms are likely to reach
hurricane strength, the agency said
in its initial
forecast for the 2011 storm season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 1.
But she also warned that spending cuts enacted by Congress threaten NOAA's ability to produce detailed
hurricane forecasts and track storms
in the future.
Over the past two decades, forecasters have improved their ability to predict where
hurricanes will go, but improvements
in forecasting a
hurricane's intensity have proved elusive.
Scientists working to improve storm intensity
forecasting have identified a more accurate means of predicting a
hurricane's strength as it approaches landfall, using sea temperature readings that they say will help forecasters better prepare communities for storm impacts
in the face of sea - level rise caused by rising global temperatures.
And that means more numerous and stronger
hurricanes in the foreseeable future, whether the
forecast is from a computer model or a meteorologist's instincts.
But
in the big picture,
hurricane models adeptly
forecasted Irma's ultimate path to the Florida Keys nearly a week before it arrived there, says Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany
in New York.
Others, such as a new microsatellite system aiming to improve measurements of
hurricane intensity and a highly anticipated new computer simulation that
forecasts hurricane paths and intensities, are still
in the calibration phase.
Powerful
hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma and Maria are also providing a testing ground for new tools that scientists hope will save lives by improving
forecasts in various ways, from narrowing a storm's future path to capturing swift changes
in the intensity of storm winds.
Researchers still don't fully understand the small but important shifts
in storm dynamics that trigger a tornado or
hurricane, for instance, and they can't
forecast a
hurricane's intensity.
The advent of Doppler radar
in the 1950s gave meteorologists new powers to «read» the air and transformed how they
forecast tornadoes and
hurricanes.
He's now one of the leading experts
in forecasting the Atlantic
hurricane season.
«We believe this first study of rogue waves occurring over space and time during
hurricanes will help improve real - time
forecasting for shipping companies and other organizations that need to understand the risk of extreme events
in the oceans.»
Their data will be used
in computer models to improve weather
forecasts, including
hurricane tracks and intensities, severe thunderstorms and floods.
Tools for
forecasting extreme weather have advanced
in recent decades, but researchers and engineers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are working to enhance radars, satellites and supercomputers to further lengthen warning times for tornadoes and thunderstorms and to better determine
hurricane intensity and
forecast floods.
Artist's rendering of NASA's ISS - RapidScat instrument (inset), which will launch to the International Space Station
in 2014 to measure ocean surface wind speed and direction and help improve weather
forecasts, including
hurricane monitoring.
That program was established by NOAA
in 2009,
in part as a response to the pummeling the U.S. received from a number of
hurricanes during the early years of that decade and the relative lack of progress made
in improving
forecasts up to that point.
In the 25 years since
Hurricane Andrew devastated southeastern Florida, the 3 - day track
forecast for
hurricanes has improved by 65 percent, she said.
NOAA evaluates the accuracy of its seasonal
forecasts each year, with the aim of seeing the number of storms fall
in the given ranges at least 70 percent of the time, which they do consistently, Gerry Bell, lead seasonal
hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said.
NOAA will update its
forecast in early August, just before the typical peak of the
hurricane season.
El Niño is a key factor
in making
hurricane seasonal
forecasts because the changes
in atmospheric patterns over the tropical Pacific that it ushers
in have a domino effect on patterns over the Atlantic, tending to suppress
hurricane formation.
So he sexes up his narrative by presenting it as a battle between the «short, professorial looking» Emanuel, a «nuanced and sophisticated» man who talks
in complete sentences, and the obdurate William Gray of Colorado State University, «a towering figure of American
hurricane science,» who has for many years produced remarkably accurate
forecasts of the upcoming Atlantic
hurricane season and who repeatedly and loudly denies —
in congressional hearings and everywhere else — that humans have any role
in climate change.
Long - range
hurricane forecasts are eagerly awaited
in U.S. financial and energy markets, which quiver every time a storm bears down on the U.S. oil and gas - producing region of the Gulf of Mexico.
NOAA's latest
forecasts warn of the potential for
hurricane - force winds from the northern Delmarva Peninsula to Cape Cod, Mass., and well inland, with rainfall totals topping 12 inches
in some areas.
There has been virtually no progress
in hurricane intensity
forecasting during the last quarter century.
More than 13 years
in the making, the center is designed to be the U.S. government's nerve center for a range of activities, including predicting
hurricane tracks and
forecasting ocean currents.
The
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which began in 2009, is an effort to improve the service's ability to forecast hurricane tracks and intensity further in
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which began
in 2009, is an effort to improve the service's ability to
forecast hurricane tracks and intensity further in
hurricane tracks and intensity further
in advance.
Bell said that he and his office, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, have been fielding questions about the August lull
in Atlantic
hurricanes and whether it would cause his
forecast team to soften its May and August outlooks, which concluded that the 2013 season had a 70 percent chance of being more active than normal.
In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
forecast six to 11 named storms, including three to six
hurricanes.
NOAA has issued its annual
forecast for the
hurricane season, along with its now - standard explanation that there is a natural cycle of multidecadal (40 - 60 year) length
in the North Atlantic circulation (often referred to as the «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» — see Figure), that is varying the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones, and that the present high level of activity is due to a concurrent positive peak
in this oscillation.
Those unexpectedly warm waters were what caused some of the seasonal
forecasts to slightly underestimate the amount of storm activity
in the Atlantic, Philip Klotzbach, a
hurricane researcher and seasonal forecaster at Colorado State University, wrote at the Capital Weather Gang blog.
Having holidayed
in Ricky's homeland of The Weather Channel and provide a national and local weather
forecast for cities, as well as weather radar, report and
hurricane coverage
A meteorologist with nearly 20 years of
forecasting under her belt, she has been on a tornado chase
in Oklahoma, on a flight into
Hurricane Isabel, and to the 6,288 - foot summit of New Hampshire's Mount Washington
in mid-winter.
The mass of cumulus clouds had increased
in bulk more rapidly than any spawning storm she could remember
in her eighteen years monitoring and
forecasting tropical
hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean with the National Underwater and Marine Agency
Hurricane Center.
Be prepared for one category higher than the one being
forecast, because
hurricanes often increase
in strength just before making landfall.
We have all heard of the yearly
hurricane forecasts made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, now the Companion Animal Parasite Council is predicting that
in 2016 the spread of vector - borne disease agents transmitted by ticks and mosquitoes will continue to promulgate and create a year - round menace to both pets and pet owners.
Hurricane Ophelia, the latest storm to form
in a record 10 consecutive
hurricanes this season, is
forecast to hit Ireland
in what could be the country's... Read More
If a
hurricane is active nearby conditions worsen and can be dangerous, so be sure to check the weather
forecast before you book a last - minute holiday to the Riviera Maya
in the wet season.
In fact, with a very uncertain
forecast for
Hurricane Hermine we cancelled all of our Labor Day weekend surf lessons.
And
hurricane forecasting is very good
in the region and the fall off
in tourist traffic has been minimal,» he reiterated.
Using «weather» (
hurricane season
forecasts, for example) to demonstrate «climate change» can backfire, and I believe it has
in this specific instance.