In their latest Science paper submittal Jim Hansen, et al. argue that we must reduce atmospheric CO2 to below 350 ppm because so - called «slow feedbacks» such as changes
in ice sheet albedo are occurring much faster than expected.
Not exact matches
What G&T are missing is the linear effect of water vapour accelerating the
ice albedo effect of change
in size of the sea
ice sheets.
This mitigates the
albedo feedback, as does the lowering
in sea level that accompanies the formation of
ice sheets.
The importance of orbital variations, of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O, of the
albedo of land
ice sheets, annual mean snow cover, sea
ice area and vegetation, and of the radiative perturbation of mineral dust
in the atmosphere are investigated.
On the studies of sensitivity based on the last glacial maximum, what reduction
in solar forcing is used based on the increased
Albedo of the
ice -
sheets, snow and desert.
26 Paul W asked, «On the studies of sensitivity based on the last glacial maximum, what reduction
in solar forcing is used based on the increased
Albedo of the
ice -
sheets, snow and desert.
How the
albedo of the Greenland
ice sheet in July 2017 compared to the average for July from 2000 - 2009.
Other factors would include: —
albedo shifts (both from
ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming to the surface...); — direct effect of CO2 on
ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly warm, rain fall on
ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting of sea
ice shelf increasing mobility of glaciers; — sea water getting under parts of the
ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the
ice sheet base; — changes
in ocean currents -LRB-?)
Hence when the Mak cycle leads to reduce energy
in the North
ice sheets form, this increases
albedo which reduces overall energy being absorbed by the plant and we have an
ices.
What G&T are missing is the linear effect of water vapour accelerating the
ice albedo effect of change
in size of the sea
ice sheets.
For example, the
ice age — interglacial cycles that we have been locked
in for the past few million years seem to be triggered by subtle changes
in the earth's orbit around the sun and
in its axis of rotation (the Milankovitch cycles) that then cause
ice sheets to slowly build up (or melt away)... which changes the
albedo (reflectance) of the earth amplifying this effect.
This was a relatively stable climate (for several thousand years, 20,000 years ago), and a period where we have reasonable estimates of the radiative forcing (
albedo changes from
ice sheets and vegetation changes, greenhouse gas concentrations (derived from
ice cores) and an increase
in the atmospheric dust load) and temperature changes.
As for irreversible, if an
ice sheet starts flowing, or if an
albedo change from sea
ice gets locked
in, I could imagine a climate change being essentially irreversible even if CO2 was brought back down, but it's just speculation, nothing more.
On the studies of sensitivity based on the last glacial maximum, what reduction
in solar forcing is used based on the increased
Albedo of the
ice -
sheets, snow and desert.
In LGM simulations land albedo changes are prescribed (at least in regards to ice sheets and altered topography due to sea level; there are feedback land albedo changes) so are a forcing, whereas sea ice is determined interactively by the model climate, so is a feedback in this framewor
In LGM simulations land
albedo changes are prescribed (at least
in regards to ice sheets and altered topography due to sea level; there are feedback land albedo changes) so are a forcing, whereas sea ice is determined interactively by the model climate, so is a feedback in this framewor
in regards to
ice sheets and altered topography due to sea level; there are feedback land
albedo changes) so are a forcing, whereas sea
ice is determined interactively by the model climate, so is a feedback
in this framewor
in this framework.
As I explained, you * can * get at climate sensitivity with the
ice core record, but only by taking into account all the forcing (including,
in particular, the
ice sheet albedo).
(Orbital forcing doesn't have much of a global annual average forcing, and it's even concievable that the sensitivity to orbital forcing as measured
in terms of global averages and the long - term response (temporal scale of
ice sheet response) might be approaching infinity or even be negative (if more sunlight is directed onto an
ice sheet, the global average
albedo might increase, but the
ice sheet would be more likely to decay, with a global average
albedo feedback that causes warming).
So
albedo change (owing to changes
in orbital forcing, which is what melts the
ice sheets) was comparable to, and probably larger than, the CO2 change.
Arctic sea
ice extent reconstruction - Kinnard et al. 2011 Sea
ice albedo feedback - NASA Polar jet stream - NC State University Greenland
ice sheet surface melt - NASA Permafrost distribution
in the Arctic - GRID - Arendal Atmospheric methane concentration - NOAA ESRL Russia plants flag at North Pole - Reuters
Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity
in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes
in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea
ice, slower surface
albedo feedbacks from changes
in continental
ice sheets and vegetation, and climate — GHG feedbacks from changes
in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks.
These large CO2 deserts cover the northern
ice sheets with dust, as is recorded
in the
ice core data, and the
ice sheet albedo is lowered sufficiently so that the next insolation maxima can melt the
ice sheets.
Human - caused global warming contributes to the summer Greenland warming (Figure 3), which causes snow to melt earlier, which causes decreased local
albedo, which contributes to record Greeland
ice sheet decline, which further decreases local
albedo, which
in turn contributes to the Arctic sea
ice decline.
«The positive
ice -
albedo feedback acts to amplify the climate change as a consequence of the melting of sea
ice and
ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere.
+ summer wildfire smoke
in Canada (2004, 2005, 2009, 2014, 2017) and Russia (2006, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016) +
albedo reductions (reduction
in brightness) over the Greenland
Ice Sheet in 2010 and 2012 related to strong melt years.
A CO2 pulse
in the atmosphere will take centuries to finally return to original levels, and that is completely ignoring any potential feedbacks from other parts of the system (ie temperatures raised for centuries could result
in massve methane releases and loss of signficant low
albedo ice sheets etc.) The experiments I am aware of that show improved plant growth
in elevated CO2 levels require that all additional biological needs are amply provided for.
With the
albedo - flip kicking
in, the energy poured into killing off millennia - old MY
ice will then go into the warming of the Arctic Ocean itself, with the result of longer and longer melt seasons each year & a corresponding ramp - up of ice loss from both the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice She
ice will then go into the warming of the Arctic Ocean itself, with the result of longer and longer melt seasons each year & a corresponding ramp - up of
ice loss from both the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice She
ice loss from both the Greenland
Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice She
Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic
Ice She
Ice Sheet.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83672 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/science/earth/collapse-of-parts-of-west-antarctica-
ice-
sheet-has-begun-scientists-say.html It will add about 10 feet according to an interview with one of the scientists involved; but over a long time and fairly vague time frame, unless reinforcing processes (carbon release from melting permafrost, shallow ocean bottom warmingn
in the form of methane from clathrates), a major reduction
in earth's
albedo from permafrost, net
ice sheet, and total sea
ice, continue to increasingly accelerate the process.
The melting of the
ice sheets and the change
in albedo and the change
in the sea levels were all feedbacks as a result of the insolation change.
If these plumes of warm air operated
in the same way during the last glaciation as they do know then they would make short work of
ice sheets that were hanging around because of the
albedo effect, this is possible because not all the northern hemisphere mid latitude land surface was covered with
ice throughout the period of glaciation and might explain why glaciations terminate quickly
Comparisons of the impacts of shortwave and longwave radiative forcing appropriate over the
ice sheets are not straightforward, but taking summer half - year insolation variations
in shortwave (Figure 3), and assuming an
albedo of 0.5 for melting
ice, variations
in summertime shortwave forcing exceed the direct CO2 radiative forcing by about a factor of five.
The remaining slow drift to lower GMT and pCO2 over glacial time, punctuated by higher - frequency variability and the dust − climate feedbacks, may reflect the consequences of the growth of continental
ice sheets via
albedo increases (also from vegetation changes) and increased CO2 dissolution
in the ocean from cooling.
Albedo change due to LGM — Holocene vegetation change, much of which is inherent with ice sheet area change, and albedo change due to coastline movement are lumped together with ice sheet area change in calculating the surface albedo climate fo
Albedo change due to LGM — Holocene vegetation change, much of which is inherent with
ice sheet area change, and
albedo change due to coastline movement are lumped together with ice sheet area change in calculating the surface albedo climate fo
albedo change due to coastline movement are lumped together with
ice sheet area change
in calculating the surface
albedo climate fo
albedo climate forcing.
To avoid long response times
in extreme climates, today's
ice sheets are assigned surface properties of the tundra, thus allowing them to have a high
albedo snow cover
in cold climates but darker vegetation
in warm climates.
These include intrinsic limitations
in current observational capabilities (e.g., spatial and radiometric resolution of currently available spaceborne sensors) and limitations on how accurately surface energy balance models handle
ice sheet albedo.
A fall of just a couple of degrees and you have increasing
Ice sheets, Increasing
Albedo, growing Glaciers,
in short..