The retreat of Greenland's glaciers has been largely due to intruding warm waters driven by changes
in natural ocean oscillations.
Not exact matches
Looking at shifts
in Manley's winter temperatures from year to year, he says, gives a good reading of important
natural cycles that influence climate, such as changes
in ocean circulation like the North Atlantic
Oscillation.
Both real - world observations and the team's simulations reveal that the abnormally strong winds — driven by
natural variation
in a long - term climate cycle called the Interdecadal Pacific
Oscillation — have, for the time being, carried the «missing» heat to intermediate depths of the western Pacific
Ocean.
He believes that changes
in ocean circulation have warmed the Atlantic and increased hurricane activity
in the past decade and that this is simply the result of normal
oscillation in natural climate cycles.
The El Niño Southern
Oscillation is a
natural fluctuation of
ocean temperatures
in the equatorial Pacific that can give rise to El Niño and La Niña, which drive droughts and floods from South East Asia and Australia to the Americas.
The goal is to capture
natural variations
in the climate, like changes
in ocean circulation or features like the El Niño Southern
Oscillation, that are swamped by the signal of human - caused warming when looking out to the end of the century.
The first collection of papers establishes that (a) decadal and multi-decadal
ocean circulation patterns (AMO, PDO, NAO, ENSO) have significantly modulated precipitation and temperature changes
in recent decades, and the second collection of papers confirm that (b)
natural ocean oscillations are,
in turn, modulated by solar activity.
The Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes
in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these
natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes
in solar activity.
Natural climate variability of the Arctic atmosphere, the impact of Greenland and PBL stability changes K. Dethloff *, A. Rinke *, W. Dorn *, D. Handorf *, J. H. Christensen ** * AWI Potsdam, ** DMI Copenhagen Unforced and forced long - term model integrations from 500 to 1000 years with global coupled atmosphere -
ocean - sea - ice models have been analysed
in order to find out whether the different models are able to simulate the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) similar to the real atmosphere.
«The current evidence strongly suggests that: (a) hurricanes tend to become more destructive as
ocean temperatures rise, and (b) an unchecked rise
in greenhouse gas concentrations will very likely increase
ocean temperatures further, ultimately overwhelming any
natural oscillations.»
The
ocean oscillations cited
in these stories have been raised by the global warming skeptics for the last ten years to explain what we saw between the mid» 70's and 2000 was nothing more than a
natural cycle.
But efforts to tease out the impact of human - driven global warming
in the region are complicated by the big influence around the Bering Sea of
natural variations
in ocean conditions, including the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation.
This cooling is the result of
natural long - term swings
in ocean surface temperatures, particularly swings
in the Interdecadal Pacific
Oscillation or mega-El Niño - Southern
Oscillation, which has lately been
in a mega-La Niña or cool phase.
Our main conclusion was that a), we had,
in fact, gone back to a busy period
in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean, and b), it was caused by a
natural fluctuation
in the Atlantic
Ocean and the atmosphere, called the Atlantic multi-decadal
oscillation.
Most scientists attribute this «pause»
in warming to
natural climate cycles that have a cooling effect on the planet, especially
ocean oscillation cycles.
The Earth's climate can certainly fluctuate from year to year due to
natural forces (including
oscillations in the Pacific
Ocean, such as El Niño).
The Earth's climate can certainly fluctuate from year to year due to
natural forces (including
oscillations in the Pacific
Ocean, such as
Although global warming appears to have taken a breather over the past decade and a half, the leveling off of average global temperatures is likely just a temporary phenomenon that is due to other climate influences from the sun's radiance level to
natural temperature
oscillations in the Pacific
ocean.
Previous large
natural oscillations are important to examine: however, 1) our data isn't as good with regards to external forcings or to historical temperatures, making attribution more difficult, 2) to the extent that we have solar and volcanic data, and paleoclimate temperature records, they are indeed fairly consistent with each other within their respective uncertainties, and 3) most mechanisms of internal variability would have different fingerprints: eg, shifting of warmth from the
oceans to the atmosphere (but we see warming
in both), or simultaneous warming of the troposphere and stratosphere, or shifts
in global temperature associated with major
ocean current shifts which for the most part haven't been seen.
Despite this increasing greenhouse gas - induced warming of the
oceans, the
ocean doesn't warm
in a linear manner due to a number of factors, one of these being a
natural decadal - scale variation
in the way heat is mixed into the
oceans by winds - the Interdecadal Pacific
Oscillation (IPO).
One of the prime suspects for this has been an increase
in trade winds which help to mix heat into the subsurface
ocean - part of a
natural oscillation known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscilla
oscillation known as the Interdecadal Pacific
OscillationOscillation (IPO).
A new article co-authored by the other of us (Michael Mann), shows that
natural ocean oscillations have recently acted to temporarily slow the warming of the Earth's surface temperatures,
in combination with a relatively quiet sun, and active volcanoes.
With the recent decline
in solar flux and the shift to cool phases of
ocean oscillations,
natural climate change suggests that although glacier retreat and sea level rise will likely continue over the next few decades, the rates of sea level rise and glacier retreats will slow down.The next decade will provide the
natural experiment to test the validity of competing hypotheses.
They can see the 60 year cycle
in temperatures, most likely caused by the AMO and / or north Altantic deep
ocean heat content
oscillations, but they refuse to «build -
in» the AMO as a
natural climate variable.
Before the industrial period, the
natural variations
in the total amount of effective solar radiative forcing reinforce the thermal contrasts both between the
ocean and continent and between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres resulting
in the millennium - scale variation and the quasi-bicentennial
oscillation in the GM index.
The near - linear rate of anthropogenic warming (predominantly from anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is shown
in sources such as: «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global warming hiatus — a
natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal
oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of
ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling
in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to
ocean mixing»
Natural variations
in climate such as fluctuations
in solar activity, volcanic activity, or
ocean oscillations like El Niño have all contributed to global warming and global cooling.
But
natural ocean oscillations have also raised temperatures, and regards to understanding both 20th century warming events
in the Arctic,
ocean oscillations offer the superior explanation.
I say my conclusion was «not unreasonable» because Dr. Scafetta,
in a posting at WattsUpWithThat today, has also concluded that, once the
natural 60 - year cycles of the great
ocean oscillations are accounted for (and it may be these cycles that express themselves
in changes
in cloud cover such as that which Dr. Pinker had identified), the anthropogenic component
in global warming is considerably less than the IPCC imagines.
«You force it at the same frequency as the
natural oscillation, and the same thing happens
in the
ocean,» he said.
Regional circulation patterns have significantly changed
in recent years.2 For example, changes
in the Arctic
Oscillation can not be explained by
natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human - induced climate change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified
in recent changes
in the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation, a pattern of variability
in sea surface temperatures
in the northern Pacific
Ocean.4
The El Nino Southern
Oscillation is a
natural — as opposed to man - made - future of the Pacific
Ocean, as areas of the Pacific periodically warm then cool every few years, causing significant sea level rises and falls every few years in step with the co-oscillations of the ocean and atmosp
Ocean, as areas of the Pacific periodically warm then cool every few years, causing significant sea level rises and falls every few years
in step with the co-oscillations of the
ocean and atmosp
ocean and atmosphere.
Anyone who has studied climate for even a short while should know that there are
natural fluctuations
in global temperature which have little or no bearing on long - term trends — mainly the solar cycle and
ocean oscillations.
We think that the bump
in temperatures
in 1935 - 45 (common
in both the
ocean AND the land) is evidence of an
natural oscillation or a response to unknown forcing, clearly not AGHGs.
One of these — stretching from Cape Hatteras to Miami — was driven by the overlapping effects of El Niño, that periodic blister of heat most obvious
in the eastern Pacific, and the North Atlantic
Oscillation, another entirely
natural periodic shift
in atmosphere and current that can pile up the
ocean waters.