Here is the equation for the total percentage increase
in nominal dividends at Year 10.
This is because the growth rate
in the nominal dividend amount is usually steady, but inflation jumps around considerably.
Not exact matches
«If net income continued growing at this more modest pace,
in lockstep with
nominal GDP, corporations would not be able to continue growing
dividends at current rates while keeping payout ratios constant.»
I should note that
in each of these models, we're assuming a long - term growth rate for cyclically - adjusted earnings, revenues,
dividends,
nominal GDP and so forth of about 6.3 % annually.
In trying to characterize
dividend approaches, I found that the
nominal dividend of the S&P 500 index has grown consistently at 5.5 %.
Practicing for Retirement
In this analysis, I assumed that the DVY
dividend grows only as fast as that of the S&P 500, which is 5.5 % per year (
nominal; without adjusting for inflation).
The formula for the real income of an investment at year N is: Inflation adjusted
dividend income = (initial
dividend amount) * -LCB-[1 + (
nominal dividend growth rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- / -LCB-[1 + (inflation rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- Typically, you would use a
nominal dividend growth rate of 5.5 % per year
in the absence of other information and 3 % per year inflation.
Dividends increase steadily
in NOMINAL dollars over time.
Dividend amounts rise steadily
in terms of
NOMINAL (without adjustments for inflation) dollars.
Keep
in mind that these are growth rates of the
NOMINAL dividend amount.
If the stock pays no
dividend, and does not change price over 40 years, you still have an asset worth $ 100 and have lost no money (
in Nominal terms - you lose buying power due to inflation, but that's a different point).
In turn, this implies that corporate earnings, from which
dividends are paid out, will likely grow more slowly than
nominal GDP.
And,
dividends may also provide a modest potential hedge against changes
in nominal GDP growth, should the economy decelerate unexpectedly.