Lisiecki et al. (2008) analysed orbital responses in proxy indicators of oceanic overturning and found that the AMOC is sensitive to maxima
in the obliquity and precession components of the Earth's orbit around the Sun.
«Yes,» Monckton agreed imperturbably, «the precession of the equinoxes, and variations in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit and
in the obliquity of its axis with respect to the plane of the ecliptic.
Changes
in obliquity modulate seasonal contrasts as well as annual mean insolation changes with opposite effects at low vs. high latitudes (and therefore no effect on global average insolation)-LCB- 6.4 -RCB-.
Raypierre also mentions an interesting idea (p. 467 of his textbook) about variations in precession and eccentricity largely cancelling due to Kepler's law, leaving variations
in obliquity (~ 40kyr) as the largest effective forcing, with some nonlinearity (CO2?)
They were all in cycles of 1000's of years and consisted of wobble around the axis, change
in obliquity to the orbit and precession effect.
CO2 provides only a minor effect
in the obliquity and precession timescale band, but over 30 % of the forcing in the 100 kyr band, so it is a key forcing agent that allows us to explain the magnitude of glacial - interglacial temperature variations.
# 61 David Benson, it is generally agreed that the system is highly sensitive to changes
in obliquity.
«What we found at 23 million years ago is a rare congruence of a low point in Earth's eccentricity and a period of minimal variation
in obliquity,» James Zachos, a professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz and lead author of the paper, explains.
Not exact matches
In our solar system, the Earth's orbital plane is known as the ecliptic, and so the Earth's axial tilt is officially called the
obliquity of the ecliptic.
The acceleration caused by the jets is so small — about a millionth of a metre per second squared — that the star would have to move
in the same direction for a million years to create
obliquity.
Huybers (Quaternary Science Reviews, 26, 37) has proposed a simple model
in which deglaciation is triggered when the
obliquity cycle is high, and when ice mass is sufficiently high.
This is surely due to the changes of earth's
obliquity, since changes
in the amplitude of the climate signal correspond to changes
in the amplitude of the
obliquity cycle (Lisiecki & Raymo 2007, Quaternary Science Reviews, 26, 56).
We find that this standard ansatz provides a reasonable lower bound on the outer boundary of the habitable zone, but the influence of
obliquity and ocean fraction can be profound
in the context of planets on eccentric orbits.
«We found that the
obliquities of the planets
in multihabitable systems were not really affected by their close orbits,» said Li.
For one, the seasons on the Earth, and the Earth's climate
in general, depend upon its «
obliquity,» or the 23.5 - degree tilt of the Earth's axis relative to its orbit.
It is believed that the PETM was likely initiated by changes of the orbital parameters of the Earth (eccentricity,
obliquity and precession of axis) causing an increase
in the intensity and distribution of solar radiation reaching the earth (Sexton et al, 2011).
Lower
obliquity should result
in more water vapour
in the tropics if the water vapour feedback holds true.
On December 1, 2009, two astronomers submitted a pre-print suggesting that the planet's extreme axial tilt (an
obliquity of 97 degrees) may have resulted from the presence of a large moon that has since been ejected from orbit around the ice giant by the pull of another planet during the orbital migration of the giant planets early
in the formation of the Solar System.
Stark and powerful for all their
obliquity, they seem oddly confident
in their reduction of the Abstract Expressionist gesture to nearly zero.
For one, the relative roles of eccentricity,
obliquity, and precession
in controlling glacial onsets / terminations are still debated.
But eccentricity modulates the effect of precession (the alignment of perihelion and aphelion with solstices or equinoxes)(actually,
obliquity does modulate this too, but while
obliquity variations have significant effect by themselves, they are relatively small
in proportion to the difference with zero
obliquity, whereas Earth's eccentricity variations include getting near zero, where aphelion and perihelion would have no effect as they wouldn't exist.
Vetoretti and Peltier (2004) found that glacial inceptions can be caused either by a strong
obliquity forcing or by a combination of eccentricity - precession forcing and low CO2 values, which is
in line with results from Berger and Loutre (2001) who found that CO2 is important during times like the MIS - 11, when the insolation variations are too small to drive glacial - interglacial cycles.
However, Kubatzki (2005) found that a simultaneous changes
in the perihelion and
obliquity forcing is necessary to initiate a full glaciation, while
obliquity forcing alone or
in combination with eccentricity forcing is not able to cause a glaciation.»
Climate
in the early Pleistocene1 varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations
in Earth's
obliquity.
«T» denotes changes
in the tilt (or
obliquity) of the Earth's axis, «E» denotes changes
in the eccentricity of the orbit (due to variations
in the minor axis of the ellipse), and «P» denotes precession, that is, changes
in the direction of the axis tilt at a given point of the orbit.
However, changes
in eccentricity interact with seasonal effects induced by
obliquity and precession of the equinoxes.
«T» denotes changes
in the tilt (or
obliquity) of the Earth's axis, «E» denotes changes
in the eccentricity of the orbit and «P» denotes precession, that is, changes
in the direction of the axis tilt at a given point of the orbit.
That would account for the relative strengths of the
obliquity and precessional signals
in the data.
This procedure is sometimes derided as «wiggle matching,» and I have literally seen it done
in a way that the
obliquity cycle is overlain with delta -18-O and peaks are moved to match the
obliquity peaks.
But mainly,
obliquity is * not * the major contributor to variation
in Jun21 insolation.
Here, for example, is normalized amplitude of the 41kyr
obliquity changes compared to normalized amplitude of the 41kyr response
in the LR04 stack (time goes from left to right, with the present at the far right):
MILANKOVITCH CYCLES overall favor N.H. cooling and an increase
in snow cover over N.H high latitudes during the N.H summers due to the fact that perihelion occurs during the N.H. winter (highly favorable for increase summer snow cover),
obliquity is 23.44 degrees which is at least neutral for an increase summer N.H. snow cover, while eccentricity of the earth's orbit is currently at 0.0167 which is still circular enough to favor reduced summertime solar insolation
in the N.H. and thus promote more snow cover.
Precession, which decides whether the Earth is closer to the sun
in July or
in January, is on a 23,000 - year cycle;
obliquity, which decides how tilted the axis of the Earth is and therefore how warm the summer is, is on a 41,000 - year cycle; and eccentricity, which decides how rounded or elongated the Earth's orbit is and therefore how close to the sun the planet gets, is on a 100,000 - year cycle.
This theory stipulates that changes
in Earth's elliptical orbit around the sun (eccentricity), changes
in the direction
in which our axis points (precession) and changes
in the tilt of the earth itself (
obliquity)-- known as Milankovitch Cycles — should contribute to changes
in climate because of the different amounts of solar insolation received during these changes.
I have claimed the Holocene ended
in 1300ad, the start of the LIA sequence, when
obliquity fell past 23.5 deg.
Bob, the 1973/74/75 / 76 & 1995/96 events correspond with decadal - timescale peaks
in the rate of change of terrestrial angular velocity — i.e. - LOD» — the red curve here...... and with minima
in terrestrial nutation
obliquity...... and also with negative surges
in terrestrial nutation longitude.
According to this theory, changes
in the shape of Earth's orbit around the sun (eccentricity), variations
in Earth's axial tilt (
obliquity), and the tendency for Earth to «wobble» with respect to the direction of its rotational axis (precession) affect climate.
In December 1976 they published a landmark climate paper in Science, showing that climate records contained the same cycles as the three parameters that vary the Earth's orbit: eccentricity, obliquity and precession (shown in Figure 1
In December 1976 they published a landmark climate paper
in Science, showing that climate records contained the same cycles as the three parameters that vary the Earth's orbit: eccentricity, obliquity and precession (shown in Figure 1
in Science, showing that climate records contained the same cycles as the three parameters that vary the Earth's orbit: eccentricity,
obliquity and precession (shown
in Figure 1
in Figure 1).
In a recent paper, paleoclimatic data shows that the tropical monsoon cycle responds very reliably to the ups and downs of Milankovitch insolation forcing on one of the shorter time scales (either 23kyr 65N forcing swings or the 41kyr
obliquity cycle, I forget which), but the ice sheets and sea level and global temperature do not respond directly to those insolation forcings.
He doesn't understand glaciations, as he uses 65 ° N summer insolation, when glaciations clearly respond to
obliquity, as we saw
in the first article of the series.
In hip nomenclature, I would be a near perfect «flat - earther» in the blatant perfect pretzel logic that would make such an assignation applicable to one that comprehends the pacing of our climate by the 3 orbital variables of precession, obliquity and eccentricit
In hip nomenclature, I would be a near perfect «flat - earther»
in the blatant perfect pretzel logic that would make such an assignation applicable to one that comprehends the pacing of our climate by the 3 orbital variables of precession, obliquity and eccentricit
in the blatant perfect pretzel logic that would make such an assignation applicable to one that comprehends the pacing of our climate by the 3 orbital variables of precession,
obliquity and eccentricity.
Precession /
obliquity — Precession very favorable while
obliquity is lessening and becoming more favorable as compared to the Holocene Optimum period of time and this is why I think the global temperatures
in general have been on a decline overall since the Holocene optimum however with fits and starts due to solar activity changes / volcanic activity and enso superimposed upon this general trend.
We already observed that problem when reviewing the Dansgaard - Oeschger cycle, where the oscillations depend on a set of conditions
in sea - level, temperatures, and
obliquity, to become perceptible.
This gave rise to the appearance that the 100,000 year eccentricity cycle was driving the cycle, while
in reality it was — and is — still
obliquity, modulated by the other two.
Now the glacial cold lurking
in the deep ocean, held
in check by
obliquity for 10,000 years, has been set free, ending the Holocene Interglacial.
With the influence of increasing
obliquity, the earth's pole
in the sun for 6 months melts more ice.
The eccentricity,
obliquity and precession variations
in Milankovitch's model are said to have accounted for, respectively, 50 %, 25 % and 10 % of temperature change.
Huybers (Quaternary Science Reviews, 26, 37) has proposed a simple model
in which deglaciation is triggered when the
obliquity cycle is high, and when ice mass is sufficiently high.
In a linear version of the Milankovitch theory, the two shorter cycles can be explained as responses to insolation cycles driven by precession and
obliquity.
For example,
in the Upper Carboniferous (~ 300 million years ago), the ~ 41,000 yr
obliquity cycle would have taken about 33,000 years (see e.g., here)