Thorne et al. (2007) suggested that the absence of the mid-tropospheric warming might be attributable to uncertainties in the observed record: however, Douglass et al. (2007) responded with a detailed statistical analysis demonstrating that the absence of the projected degree of warming is significant
in all observational datasets.
Po Chedley say: «The apparent model - observational difference for tropical upper tropospheric warming represents an important problem, but it is not clear whether the difference is a result of common biases in GCMs, biases
in observational datasets, or both.»
9.4.1.3.2 Upper tropospheric temperature trends Most climate model simulations show a larger warming in the tropical troposphere than is found
in observational datasets (e.g., (McKitrick et al., 2010)(Santer et al., 2012)-RRB-.
The experts you selectively quote say» it is not clear whether the difference is a result of common biases in GCMs, biases
in observational datasets, or both», whereas you make your own conclusion and suggest that the radiosonde are correct and everything else is wrong.
So what we are really interested in is the waiting time to the next unambiguous record i.e. a record that is at least 0.1 ºC warmer than the previous one (so that it would be clear
in all observational datasets).
Not exact matches
«We overcame this challenge by trying to push the
observational science to the highest resolutions, allowing us to more readily compare observations across
datasets,» said Nicholas Schmerr, the study's co-author and an assistant research scientist
in geology at the University of Maryland.
... Even
in the satellite era — the best observed period
in Earth's climate history — there are significant uncertainties
in key
observational datasets.
Thus my plea to the modelers: please mention the name of the
observational dataset in your legend.
In short, irrespective of what observational dataset was used — it's likely that an estimate of forced response made in 2014 would be biased cold, which on its own would translate to an overestimate of the available budget of about 40Gt
In short, irrespective of what
observational dataset was used — it's likely that an estimate of forced response made
in 2014 would be biased cold, which on its own would translate to an overestimate of the available budget of about 40Gt
in 2014 would be biased cold, which on its own would translate to an overestimate of the available budget of about 40GtC.
There are very good scientific reasons for using
observational datasets that fill
in data sparse regions
in many analyses — I will continue using them — but we should be aware of not only their strengths but also of their weaknesses.
We also checked that using different
observational datasets (NOAA, Berkeley, GISTEMP) gave similar results (results shown
in Extended Data).
Part of the story here is that it is this very sort of very careful work done by John Kennedy and Phil Jones and other colleagues working on these
datasets that has allowed us to start challenging the models and our understanding
in such a detailed way —
in some ways it is quite remarkable that the
observational data is now good enough to identify this level of detail
in how the climate varies and changes.
Using the SFZ 2008 tar file archive data
in combination with the deep - ocean diagnostic model and control - run data used
in SFZ 2008, and a deep - ocean diagnostic
observational trend calculated from the Levitus et al 2005
dataset, I can produce broadly similar climate parameter PDFs to those
in the Forest 2006 main results (Figure 2: GSOLSV, κsfc = 16, uniform prior), with a peak climate sensitivity around S = 3.
The surface and upper air temperature
observational datasets are continually revised and then made obsolete, so obtaining the data used
in a study carried out using 10 year old data is not very practicable.
In summary, I have copies of datasets used in two studies related to Forest 2006, both of which should contain the same temperature data as used in Forest 2006 (save for the deep - ocean observational data
In summary, I have copies of
datasets used
in two studies related to Forest 2006, both of which should contain the same temperature data as used in Forest 2006 (save for the deep - ocean observational data
in two studies related to Forest 2006, both of which should contain the same temperature data as used
in Forest 2006 (save for the deep - ocean observational data
in Forest 2006 (save for the deep - ocean
observational data).
Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones, 2012: Quantifying uncertainties
in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of
observational estimates: The HadCRUT4
dataset.
Observational analyses do suggest a link between heavy precipitation and storm surge, but the available
dataset was too short to explore the statistical relationships
in a relevant part of the frequency distribution.
Monitoring changes
in Australia's climate requires
observational datasets that are not only good quality, but also homogeneous through time.
... Even
in the satellite era — the best observed period
in Earth's climate history — there are significant uncertainties
in key
observational datasets.
I note that both the gridded model and
observational datasets used
in our IJoC paper are freely available to researchers.
You should have no problem
in accessing exactly the same model and
observational datasets that we employed.
For the thirty - year period 1979 to 2009 the
observational datasets find
in the tropical lower troposphere (LT) a warming trend of 0.07 °C to 0.15 °C per decade.
For the thirty - year period 1979 to 2009 (sometimes updated through 2010 or 2011), the various
observational datasets find,
in the tropical lower troposphere (LT, see Chapter 2 for definition), an average warming trend ranging from 0.07 °C to 0.15 °C per decade.
Because the differences between the various
observational estimates are largely systematic and structural (Chapter 2; Mears et al., 2011), the uncertainty
in the observed trends can not be reduced by averaging the observations as if the differences between the
datasets were purely random.
Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones (2012), Quantifying uncertainties
in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of
observational estimates: The HadCRUT4
dataset, J. Geophys.
This study addresses the challenge by undertaking a formal detection and attribution analysis of SCE changes based on several
observational datasets with different structural characteristics,
in order to account for the substantial
observational uncertainty.
Non-stationarity
in the
observational / reanalysis
datasets complicated the evaluation of downscaling performance.
Which is pretty much exactly what I wrote
in my original response with a few additional details about reconciling the differences between
observational datasets.
«Evidence for climate change
in the satellite cloud record» «Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation
in global climate models» «A net decrease
in the Earth's cloud, aerosol, and surface 340 nm reflectivity during the past 33 yr (1979 — 2011)» «New
observational evidence for a positive cloud feedback that amplifies the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» «Impact of
dataset choice on calculations of the short - term cloud feedback»
While such models lack adequate
observational datasets of subsurface soil properties and / or geology, it is clear that the time scale for deep permafrost thaw is measured
in centuries, not years.
They are perhaps the largest uncertainty
in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and
observational datasets over what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur
in response to global warming2, 3.
«Using state - of - the - art
observational datasets and results from a large archive of computer mode simulations, a consortium of scientists from 12 different institutions has resolved a long - standing conundrum
in climate science»
, which are
in fact the excess of AFari + aci over RFari, need adjusting (scaling down by (0.73 − 0.4) / (0.9 − 0.4), all years) to obtain a forcing
dataset based on a purely
observational estimate of aerosol AF rather than the IPCC's composite estimate.
The greater rate of warming
in the tropical mid-troposphere that is projected by general - circulation models is absent
in this and all other
observational datasets, whether satellite or radiosonde.
The first panel shows the raw «spaghetti» projections, with different
observational datasets in black and the different emission scenarios (RCPs) shown
in colours.
The basic
observational result seems to be similar to what we can produce but use of slightly different
datasets, such as the EBAF CERES
dataset, changes the results to be somewhat less
in magnitude.