As shown in the above linked essay, there is nothing
in the ocean heat content data or satellite - era sea surface temperature data to indicate that manmade greenhouse gases have had any impact on the warming of the global oceans.
It's a long post, I'll grant you that, but if you're interested
in ocean heat content data, it's worth a read.
The heating is also quite spatially variable as shown
in the ocean heat content data with a significant fraction going into the Southern Oceans.
Even if ultimately there is real confidence
in ocean heat content data — i.e. the trends exceed the differences in data handling — without understanding changes in reflected SW and emitted IR it remains impossible to understand the global energy dynamic.
Not exact matches
Figure 3 is the comparison of the upper level (top 700m)
ocean heat content (OHC) changes
in the models compared to the latest
data from NODC and PMEL (Lyman et al (2010), doi).
In order to compare these satellite - based observations with
ocean heat content it is necessary to anchor the
data to an absolute scale.
Also notable is the substantial variation
in ocean heating rates between the three different
ocean heat content data sets.
However, the large - scale nature of
heat content variability, the similarity of the Levitus et al. (2005a) and the Ishii et al. (2006) analyses and new results showing a decrease
in the global
heat content in a period with much better
data coverage (Lyman et al., 2006), gives confidence that there is substantial inter-decadal variability
in global
ocean heat content.
Another figure worth updating is the comparison of the
ocean heat content (OHC) changes
in the models compared to the latest
data from NODC.
A total of 2.3 million salinity profiles were used
in this analysis, about one - third of the amount of
data used
in the
ocean heat content estimates
in Section 5.2.2.
And since we don't have good
ocean heat content data, nor any satellite observations, or any measurements of stratospheric temperatures to help distinguish potential errors
in the forcing from internal variability, it is inevitable that there will be more uncertainty
in the attribution for that period than for more recently.
The models serve merely to quantify these basic facts more accurately, calculate the regional climate response, and compute effects (such as the expected increase
in ocean heat content or sea level) which can be tested against observed
data from the real world.
The next figure is the comparison of the
ocean heat content (OHC) changes
in the models compared to the latest
data from NODC.
The objective of our study was to quantify the consistency of near - global and regional integrals of
ocean heat content and steric sea level (from
in situ temperature and salinity
data), total sea level (from satellite altimeter
data) and
ocean mass (from satellite gravimetry
data) from an Argo perspective.
The error bars on the CERES retrievals, particularly when all 4 sensors are available are significantly less than the (reported) error bars on the
ocean heat content data in the Lyman et al work.
Previous work by Barnett's group showed that coupled models when forced with greenhouse gases did give
ocean heat content changes similar to that shown
in the
data.
One thing I would have liked to see
in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of sea - surface temperatures and upper
ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the surface, although much less than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST trend — but again, no actual
data analysis of the SST trend is reported.
This seems sloppy to me, since the SST dataset is far more reliable than the upper
ocean heat content dataset, and as far as I can tell the Arctic is underrepresented
in the
data.
Secondly, and even more important, the increase
in observed
heat content (based on NOAA
data) is near equal for the NH and the SH (see: World
oceans), while the area's / volumes are different.
Which implies that since the late» 40's - early» 50's we have had a
data collection system deployed capable of measuring and tracking the annual TEMPERATURE of the top 2000 meters of the
oceans of the world (necessary to calculate its
heat content)-- all of them — with a precision and accuracy
in the millidegree range.
We asked you to support your claim that the resolution of the oceanic temperature
data is not sufficient to make a determination of a trend
in ocean heat content, which you have yet to provide.
You made a specific claim, that the resolution of the
data is not sufficient to make a determination of a trend
in ocean heat content.
This is at least ten additional years compared to the majority of previously published studies that have used the instrumental record
in attempts to constrain the ECS.We show that the additional 10 years of
data, and especially 10 years of additional
ocean heat content data, have significantly narrowed the probability density function of the ECS.
Refer to: A. ENSO Dominates NODC
Ocean Heat Content (0 - 700 Meters)
Data B. North Pacific
Ocean Heat Content Shift
In The Late 1980s C. North Atlantic
Ocean Heat Content (0 - 700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables
I don't know about all of you, but I do find that the uncertainty around e.g. the various issues related to
ocean heat content or issues regarding connecting the Argo float network to other
data networks is SO much better covered
in Judith's bizarre and uniquely repetitive mischaracterizations of other scientists» comments, than by the published science and its critical review.
The increase
in deep
ocean heat content is also a robust result
in data sets that do not include reanalysis.
For example, as discussed
in Nuccitelli et al. (2012), the
ocean heat content data set compiled by a National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of ocean heat absorption has occurred in the deeper ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (20
data set compiled by a National Oceanographic
Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of ocean heat absorption has occurred in the deeper ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (20
Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of
ocean heat absorption has occurred
in the deeper
ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (2013).
Temperatures measured by the ARGO floats and the XBTs before them are rising
in the raw
data, and the
ocean heat content (OHC) is simply observed temperature change scaled by the thermal mass of the
ocean layer
in question - not some kind of complex model.
Several recent studies have also concluded that it is necessary to include
data from the deep
ocean in order to reconcile global
heat content and the TOA energy imbalance, which DK12 failed to do.
DK12 used
ocean heat content (OHC)
data for the upper 700 meters of
oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate of OHC increase has slowed
in recent years (the very short timeframe of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods of «climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC
data indicate that the net climate feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount of global warming
in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is low.
The
data used
in estimating the Levitus et al. (2005a)
ocean temperature fields (for the above
heat content estimates) do not include sea surface temperature (SST) observations, which are discussed
in Chapter 3.
The consistency between these two
data sets gives confidence
in the
ocean temperature
data set used for estimating depth - integrated
heat content, and supports the trends
in SST reported
in Chapter 3.
It is true that the NODC's ARGO - era
ocean heat content (0 - 2000 meters) continues to warm globally, but always recall that the ARGO
data had to be adjusted, modified, tweaked, corrected, whatever,
in order to create that warming.
Chen and Tung (2014) analyse the
ocean heat content data maintained by a Japanese research group, Ishii et al (2005), and make a number of statements about the cause of multi-decadal fluctuations
in ocean heat mixing rates.
However,
in evaluating the
ocean heat content data and scientific literature, Curry made a number of mistakes.
In the present study, satellite altimetric height and historically available in situ temperature data were combined using the method developed by Willis et al. [2003], to produce global estimates of upper ocean heat content, thermosteric expansion, and temperature variability over the 10.5 - year period from the beginning of 1993 through mid-2003.
In the present study, satellite altimetric height and historically available
in situ temperature data were combined using the method developed by Willis et al. [2003], to produce global estimates of upper ocean heat content, thermosteric expansion, and temperature variability over the 10.5 - year period from the beginning of 1993 through mid-2003.
in situ temperature
data were combined using the method developed by Willis et al. [2003], to produce global estimates of upper
ocean heat content, thermosteric expansion, and temperature variability over the 10.5 - year period from the beginning of 1993 through mid-2003...
The paper also includes this useful table illustrating that according to observational
data,
ocean heat content has indeed accumulated rapidly
in the deep
oceans in recent years.
Another problem with Curry's analysis is that she simply eyeballs the
ocean heat content graph
in Lyman & Johnson (2013) and concludes that since 2003, the
data look flat.
However, as we recently discussed, the increase
in deep
ocean heat content is a robust result
in data sets that do not include reanalysis.
Evidence of warming from
ocean heat content measurements comes from a
data set that is not mature and interpretation of this warming is confounded by the long time scales of circulation and
heat transfer
in the
ocean.
When the first analyses of
Ocean Heat Content calculated from old temperature
data from the
oceans where first published
in the early 2000's, they were described as the «Smoking Gun».
The Guardian article brings
in additional
data: the Arctic sea ice minimum and
ocean heat content.
The point is that this observation is not very relevant if the outcome comes from a combination of relevant and persistently warming
data from areas where the temperature is strongly correlated with increase
in the
heat content of
oceans, atmosphere and continental topmost layers, and almost totally irrelevant
data from areas and seasons where and when exceptionally great natural variability of surface temperatures makes these temperatures essentially irrelevant for the determination of longterm trends.
Compare the professionalism of NASA's scientists and programs with that of Spencer and Christy (who told Congress
in 2013 that no warming had occurred
in 15 years, contradicting his own
data and laughably contradicting the trend
in atmosphere +
ocean heat content).
Actually Fielding's use of that graph is quite informative of how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit of a selected graph (and don't mention the fastest warming region on the planet being left out of that
data set), or the complete passing over of short term variability vs longer term trends, or the other measures and indicators of climate change from
ocean heat content and sea levels to changes
in ice sheets and minimum sea ice levels, or the passing over of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on temperatures... etc..
However, the much - adjusted NODC
ocean heat content data for the tropical Pacific (Figure 1) shows a decline
in ocean heat content since 2000, and the
ocean heat content for the Atlantic (Figure 2) has been flat since 2005.
The way I see it, if you get various
data points of
ocean heat content, you then have to plot a trend to see how that is changing with the other changes
in incoming and outgoing radiation and greenhouse gases andland use etc..
The
Ocean Heat Content data also accounts for changes
in salinity.
If the model Curry and colleagues discussed had incorporated the latest
ocean heat content data, their relatively low best estimate for climate sensitivity would have been more
in line with previously reported, higher estimates.
It's based on the Tropical Pacific
Ocean Heat Content and NINO3.4 SST anomaly
data illustrated
in Figure 3.