[2] This, in turn, could have driven the higher rate of increase
in ocean heat content shown in [1].
He agrees that the Increase
in ocean heat content shows that the earth has continued to gain energy during the so called «pause» or «hiatus».
Not exact matches
The purple lines
in the graph below
show how the
heat content of the whole
ocean has changed over the past five decades.
Contributions to the event arising from changes
in ocean heat content were
shown to be negligible.
You speak of
heat going into the
oceans, but didn't the last IPCC report
show model projections of
ocean heat content vs observations, and there was no extra
heat in the
oceans?
The biggest increases
in ocean heat content were
in those deeper layers,
showing «that the deep
ocean has played an increasingly important role
in the
ocean energy budget since 1998,» according to the study.
However, the large - scale nature of
heat content variability, the similarity of the Levitus et al. (2005a) and the Ishii et al. (2006) analyses and new results
showing a decrease
in the global
heat content in a period with much better data coverage (Lyman et al., 2006), gives confidence that there is substantial inter-decadal variability
in global
ocean heat content.
The time series
shows an overall trend of increasing
heat content in the World
Ocean with interannual and inter-decadal variations superimposed on this trend.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003
show a significant increasing trend
in ocean heat content.
The geographical distribution of the linear trend of 0 to 700 m
heat content for 1955 to 2003 for the World
Ocean is
shown in Figure 5.2.
Examination of the geographical distribution of the differences
in 0 to 700 m
heat content between the 1977 — 1981 and 1965 — 1969 pentads and the 1986 — 1990 and 1977 — 1981 pentads
shows that the pattern of
heat content change has spatial scales of entire
ocean basins and is also found
in similar analyses by Ishii et al. (2006).
Observed changes
in ocean heat content have now been
shown to be inconsistent with simulated natural climate variability, but consistent with a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences both on a global scale, and
in individual
ocean basins.
The key observation here is the increase
in ocean heat content over the last half century (the figure below
shows three estimates of the changes since 1955).
You speak of
heat going into the
oceans, but didn't the last IPCC report
show model projections of
ocean heat content vs observations, and there was no extra
heat in the
oceans?
The graph of
ocean heat content shows a slight decline
in the year 2010; this co-occurred with a decline
in sea surface and a record (or near record) surface temperature.
The
ocean heat content analysis by Barnett (and
in other groups)
show that the changes are most consistent with the GHGs becoming increasingly dominant over this time.
In Balmaseda et al. paper, they show very nicely the changes in the ocean heat content (OHC) since the late 1950s and how during the last decade the OHC has substantially increased in the deep ocean while in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalle
In Balmaseda et al. paper, they
show very nicely the changes
in the ocean heat content (OHC) since the late 1950s and how during the last decade the OHC has substantially increased in the deep ocean while in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalle
in the
ocean heat content (OHC) since the late 1950s and how during the last decade the OHC has substantially increased
in the deep ocean while in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalle
in the deep
ocean while
in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalle
in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalled.
This is supported by historic observations (Figure 1), which
shows roughly decade - long hiatus periods
in upper
ocean heat content during the 1960s to 1970s, and the 1980s to 1990s.
Previous work by Barnett's group
showed that coupled models when forced with greenhouse gases did give
ocean heat content changes similar to that
shown in the data.
Some people looked at parts of that work (for example, the lower right panel of Figure 1) and point out how the climate model
oceans show a smooth and pretty much unbroken increase
in heat content over the historical period.
You may now understand why global temperature, i.e.
ocean heat content,
shows such a strong correlation with atmospheric CO2 over the last 800,000 years — as
shown in the ice core records.
The chart
shows that starting
in the late 1940's, we have been able to measure the
heat content of the top 2000 meters of
ocean accurately enough so that annual changes
in ocean heat content of less than 1e22 joules can be detected and tracked.
This is at least ten additional years compared to the majority of previously published studies that have used the instrumental record
in attempts to constrain the ECS.We
show that the additional 10 years of data, and especially 10 years of additional
ocean heat content data, have significantly narrowed the probability density function of the ECS.
For example, as discussed
in Nuccitelli et al. (2012), the
ocean heat content data set compiled by a National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus
shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of
ocean heat absorption has occurred
in the deeper
ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (2013).
Increasing
ocean heat content also
shows no recovery of Arctic sea ice anywhere
in the cards.
The geographical distribution of the linear trend of 0 to 700 m
heat content for 1955 to 2003 for the World
Ocean is
shown in Figure 5.2.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003
show a significant increasing trend
in ocean heat content.
The time series
shows an overall trend of increasing
heat content in the World
Ocean with interannual and inter-decadal variations superimposed on this trend.
It isn't — Wong et al
show that
ocean heat content peaking
in 1998 and the ARGO steric
heat content is not sufficient to turn that around.
So where do all these graphs
showing global
heat content that include the
heat hiding
in the deep
ocean come from?
Since the IPCC's graph above up to 2003
shows that most of the energy from global warming is
in the
oceans, to a first approximation,
Ocean Heat Content change since then is going to be close enough to the Total
Heat Content change.
This map
shows trends
in global
ocean heat content, from the surface to 2,000 meters deep.
The upper figure
shows changes
in ocean heat content since 1958, while the lower map
shows ocean heat content in 2017 relative to the average
ocean heat content between 1981 and 2010, with red areas
showing warmer
ocean heat content than over the past few decades and blue areas
showing cooler.
The figures below
shows ocean heat content for each year
in the region of the
ocean between the surface and 2,000 meters
in depth (comprising the bulk of the world's
oceans), as well as a map of 2017 anomalies.
A weaker or ENSO neutral period simply means the
oceans are keeping more of their energy, and
in fact,
ocean heat content has been growing
in the central to western Pacific at depths below the surface as
shown in the latest ENSO weekly report:
I say the
ocean heat content in the Atlantic is dropping, you
show trend lines.
The rate of warming as measured by
ocean heat content changes over the last 4 years
shows that we have DOUBLED the top - of - atmosphere energy imbalance from 0.6 watts per meter squared to 1.1 watts per meter squared
in the last 7 years.
The hockey stick pattern also
shows up
in the following papers: «Pacific
Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years» «Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium»
However, the much - adjusted NODC
ocean heat content data for the tropical Pacific (Figure 1)
shows a decline
in ocean heat content since 2000, and the
ocean heat content for the Atlantic (Figure 2) has been flat since 2005.
The
heating is also quite spatially variable as
shown in the
ocean heat content data with a significant fraction going into the Southern
Oceans.
Recent
ocean heat content (OHC) calculations have
shown a dramatic shift during the period 2001 — 2003, which is nearly coincident with a major transition
in the
ocean observation network from a ship - based system to Argo floats.
Gavin, I think it would be worth adding to the post 1) the main reason why there was so much doubt about the Lyman et al results (the unphysical melt amounts for 2003 - 5), 2) the expected role of GRACE
in obtaining a reliable result, 3) the fact that the ARGOs don't measure the deep
oceans, and 4) that it's inappropriate to take the remaining ARGO data (
shown in the Lyman et al correction to be essentially flat for the last two years) and draw any conclusions about
ocean heat content trends for that period.
Ocean Heat Content estimates produced by the ex-NODC at NCEI
show that OHC anomalies
in each quarter of 2015 were the highest on record for each quarter.
For example, additional evidence of a warming trend can be found
in the dramatic decrease
in the extent of Arctic sea ice at its summer minimum (which occurs
in September), decrease
in spring snow cover
in the Northern Hemisphere, increases
in the global average upper
ocean (upper 700 m or 2300 feet)
heat content (
shown relative to the 1955 — 2006 average), and
in sea - level rise.
If it can be
shown that a change
in DSR puts more energy into the bulk
ocean than a similar change
in DLR then this implys that DLR is returned more quickly to space and therefore the earth's
heat content sensitivity would be less for DLR than DSR.
Living
in the real world of a real country I am much more concerned with what the 350 year temperature record is
showing us, not the highly theoretical
ocean heat content of a poorly measured, medium with records stretching back barely a decade.
Balmaseda et al. (2013) suggested that changes
in the winds have resulted
in a recent
heat accumulation
in the deep sea that has masked the surface warming and that the
ocean heat content shows a steady increase.
As for
ocean heat content, Argo hasn't been
in the water long enough to
show a clear signal, and there have been problems with the data, including a significant correction (you do recall the correction to the UAH satellite record after years of insistence that their data
showed the surface temp record trends were completely wrong?).
I'm not as well read on this subject as I would like but I know that Dr Craig Loehle has recently completed a study of the
ocean heat content anomaly data compiled by Willis et al (2008b), his findings
show that since the Argo array of profiling floats programme began taking accurate measurements
in 2003, that the
ocean has been cooling during the period 2003 — 2008.
Several independent analyses of hundreds of thousands of measurements
show that the
ocean heat content began a steady rise
in the 1970s.