Not exact matches
Seasonal weather fluctuations also depend on factors such as proximity to oceans or other large bodies of water, currents
in those oceans, El Nino / ENSO and other
oceanic cycles, and prevailing winds.
Paul Dirmeyer, a professor
in the department of atmospheric,
oceanic and earth sciences at George Mason University who was not involved
in the study, notes: «Green et al. put forward an intriguing and exciting new idea, expanding our measures of land - atmospheric feedbacks from mainly a phenomenon of the water and energy
cycles to include the biosphere, both as a response to climate forcing and a forcing to climate response.»
Unicellular photosynthetic microbes — phytoplankton — are responsible for virtually all
oceanic primary production, which fuels marine food webs and plays a fundamental role
in the global carbon
cycle.
Carbonates are important constituents of marine sediments and are heavily involved
in the planet's deep carbon
cycle, primarily due to
oceanic crust sinking into the mantle, a process called subduction.
Other studies have linked these
oceanic cycles with earlier snowmelts and warmer winters
in California since the 1940s, and with a decline
in California's coastal fog since the early 20th century.
The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition (the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane); changes
in the Earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch
cycles (and possibly the Sun's orbit around the galaxy); the motion of tectonic plates resulting
in changes
in the relative location and amount of continental and
oceanic crust on the Earth's surface, which could affect wind and ocean currents; variations
in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth - Moon system; and the impact of relatively large meteorites, and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.
«The climate patterns responsible for the expected above - normal 2007 hurricane season continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of
oceanic and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995), warmer - than - normal sea surface temperatures
in key areas of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and the El Nino / La Nina
cycle»
Based on findings related to
oceanic acidity levels during the PETM and on calculations about the
cycling of carbon among the oceans, air, plants and soil, Dickens and co-authors Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawaii and James Zachos of the University of California - Santa Cruz determined that the level of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere increased by about 70 percent during the PETM.
Changes
in oceanic circulation
in the North Atlantic have influence on a planetary level by affecting,
in particular, the water
cycle.
If so, I think we want to include tightly coupled chemical and biological processes,
in that case — for example, the chemical fate of atmospheric methane over time, the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on
oceanic acid - base chemistry, and the response of the biological components of the carbon
cycle to increased temperatures and a changing hydrologic
cycle.
They say that their research shows that much of the warming was caused by
oceanic cycles when they were
in a â $ ˜warm modeâ $ ™ as opposed to the present â $ ˜cold modeâ $ ™.
Additionally the
oceanic warming and cooling
cycles introduce constant, rapid and substantial changes not yet reflected
in any models and which invalidate any averaged global estimates of the planetary heat budget.
Thus, these microscopic bacteria perform a huge function
in helping determine the
oceanic ecosystem response to the
cycling of carbon under climate change.
Climate contrarian geologist Don Easterbook has been predicting impending global cooling since 2000, based on expected changes
in various
oceanic cycles (including ENSO) and solar activity.
It logically follows that, from time to time, the other
oceanic cycles can operate
in conjunction with PDO / ENSO to emphasise the effect on the global temperature.
Before it is safe to attribute a global warming or a global cooling effect to any other factor (CO2
in particular) it is necessary to disentangle the simultaneous overlapping positive and negative effects of solar variation, PDO / ENSO and the other
oceanic cycles.
«from time to time the other
oceanic cycles can operate
in the opposite mode to PDO / ENSO thereby offsetting it until any lag is worked through.
By calculating the running total departing from this figure
in a simple integration I found that combined with the ~ 60
oceanic cycles (also solar influenced), I could reproduce the temperature history of the last 150 years quite accurately.
We also need to identify all the separate
oceanic cycles around the globe and ascertain both the current state of their respective warming or cooling modes and, moreover, the intensity of each, both at the time of measurement and
in the future.
What is even more remarkable, is the fact that common frequencies seen
in the two data sets [i.e. the flux optical depth anomaly and the SOI index] are simply those that would be expected if ENSO phenomenon is a resonant response of the Earth's (atmospheric /
oceanic) climate system brought about by a coupling between it and the Earth's forced (18.6 year Nodical Lunar
Cycle) and unforced (1.2 year Chandler Wobble) nutations.
It will be hard to identify because, as I have mentioned
in my other articles, the filtering of the solar signal through the various
oceanic cycles is neither rapid nor straightforward.
On balance the evidence shows that solar and
oceanic variations are more likely the cause of recent observations of warming
in the air than increasing CO2
in the air but the issue can soon be resolved by observing the global air temperature changes that occur during and after the extended
cycle 23 and the probable weak
cycle 24.
In fact that point of transition will itself vary over time depending on whether, at any given moment, the oceanic cycles are working against or in support of the TSI change
In fact that point of transition will itself vary over time depending on whether, at any given moment, the
oceanic cycles are working against or
in support of the TSI change
in support of the TSI changes.
The natural
cycles can not be reasonable removed until it is known what
in hell drives them, how long they last, what sort of feedbacks do they create independently and among other
cycles, how they interact with CO2 and other first order anthro - forcings that alter the earths surface, atmospheric and
oceanic physiobiochemistry.
[17] A 1500 year
cycle corresponding to the North Atlantic
oceanic circulation may have widespread global distribution
in the Late Holocene.
In some way, that's the engine where all the other variations must be hanged (specially variations in albedo because of clouds - maybe connected with solar cycles as other authors are trying to prove -, variations in albedo because of sea ice extention, linked with the oceanic currents - as in the «stadium wave» that was presented by Curry and others, etc., variations in heat exchange between atmosphere and oceans, and so o
In some way, that's the engine where all the other variations must be hanged (specially variations
in albedo because of clouds - maybe connected with solar cycles as other authors are trying to prove -, variations in albedo because of sea ice extention, linked with the oceanic currents - as in the «stadium wave» that was presented by Curry and others, etc., variations in heat exchange between atmosphere and oceans, and so o
in albedo because of clouds - maybe connected with solar
cycles as other authors are trying to prove -, variations
in albedo because of sea ice extention, linked with the oceanic currents - as in the «stadium wave» that was presented by Curry and others, etc., variations in heat exchange between atmosphere and oceans, and so o
in albedo because of sea ice extention, linked with the
oceanic currents - as
in the «stadium wave» that was presented by Curry and others, etc., variations in heat exchange between atmosphere and oceans, and so o
in the «stadium wave» that was presented by Curry and others, etc., variations
in heat exchange between atmosphere and oceans, and so o
in heat exchange between atmosphere and oceans, and so on.
In short, Swanson and Tsonis hypothesized that when various natural oceanic cycles (PDO, AMO, etc.) synchronize (i.e. in their positive or negative phases), they can cause a short - term warming or cooling which could be described as a «climate regime shift.&raqu
In short, Swanson and Tsonis hypothesized that when various natural
oceanic cycles (PDO, AMO, etc.) synchronize (i.e.
in their positive or negative phases), they can cause a short - term warming or cooling which could be described as a «climate regime shift.&raqu
in their positive or negative phases), they can cause a short - term warming or cooling which could be described as a «climate regime shift.»
Media
in typhoon - prone Japan ignore new important findings suggesting hurricanes and typhoon intensification speed depends mostly on natural
oceanic cycles, and not related to atmospheric CO2.
Other studies have linked these
oceanic cycles with earlier snowmelts and warmer winters
in California since the 1940s, and with a decline
in California's coastal fog since the early 20th century.
Once the sign of the solar effect on the stratosphere is reversed it becomes possible to propose a system of climate change arising simply from the latitudinal shifting of the air circulation systems
in response to competing forces from variable
oceanic and solar
cycles.
In particular that could provide a plausible connection to the longer term climate and
oceanic cycling that I have referred to.
The reason for a reduced CO2 rate of rise was probably not due to a reduction
in emission rates, but it may have reflected carbon
cycle feedbacks that slightly altered the balance between atmospheric CO2 and terrestrial and
oceanic sinks.
All those effects (GHGs, solar and
oceanic) operate by changing the speed of the water
cycle which speed responds instantly to changes
in the atmospheric heights.
It seems to the writer that spreading global
oceanic cycles of up to 30 years
in length across 3 solar
cycles results
in a close enough match to fit temperature observations over the past few hundred years and especially since 1961.
Thus a decline
in solar energy will have an immediate effect if it occurs at a time when the overall balance of all the
oceanic oscillations is negative as now (2007 to date) when the end of solar
cycle 23 is significantly delayed and the late start of
cycle 24 suggests a weaker
cycle than we have had for some time.
The main omissions
in current climatology are to ignore the
oceanic role
in setting and maintaining AND CHANGING the Earth's temperature and failing to recognise that the speed of the hydro
cycle changes
in response to those
oceanic forcings.
In 1988 when this all started no one acknowledged the significance of ENSO events globally or the existence of 30 year phase shifts let alone a 500 year ocean
cycle.
Sometimes the solar
cycles operate
in conjunction with the
oceanic oscillations but at other times they work against each other.
This article makes use of recent findings about the relatively short decadal or multi decadal (20 to 30 years)
oceanic oscillations that, the writer contends, are short enough to bring the time scales involved
in oceanic changes into line with the solar
cycles of 11 years or so.
You must calculate the greenhouse affect on the warming / lack of warming
in the
oceanic hydrological
cycle.
The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can change or reverse
in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player
in glacial / inter-glacial
cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch C
cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation /
oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova
in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch
CyclesCycles.
(3) Land air / soil annual temperature
cycles are more extreme than
oceanic water temperature
cycles overall (
in the way they affect the metabolism of land plants).
As to the mechanics of both top down solar and bottom up
oceanic influences on the surface air pressure distribution (and thus the movements of the climate zones) I have dealt with that
in detail elsewhere so here suffice it to say that all climate change is simply the surface air pressure distribution shifting to accommodate those three primary solar and
oceanic cycles.
It is clear that the Bond record mixed periodicity reflects the climatic shift that took place at the MHT from mainly solar forcing to a mixed solar and
oceanic forcing (figure 41), and therefore it can be concluded that the first assumption of Gerard Bond is incorrect: different peaks represent cooling from different causes, and thus a Bond
cycle does not exist
in the Holocene.
It will be hard to identify because, as I have mentioned
in my other articles, the filtering of the solar signal through the various
oceanic cycles is neither rapid nor straightforward and it appears that the effects are caused not by solar irradiance
in itself but rather by changes
in the mix of wavelengths and particles from the sun as solar activity varies.
But as for long - term (decadal)
oceanic events such as the AMO — do they actually exist as some sort of real physical
cycle, or are they only a collection of random natural variations that we interpret
in our minds as some sort of «real» thing?
«On the basis of the information
in the public domain about solar
cycles and the positive PDO it should have been blatantly obvious that the world would warm up without the need to speculate on a contribution from CO2 or anything else... I find Mr. [Alec] Rawls very helpful
in illustrating the effect of time lags between solar input and
oceanic oscillations... As Mr. Rawls points out...
Although correlations between the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the El Niño — Southern Oscillation are well known, the magnitude of the correlation and the timing of the responses of
oceanic and terrestrial carbon
cycle remain poorly constrained
in space and time.
A first carbon
cycle assessment was performed through an international model and analysis workshop examining terrestrial and
oceanic uptake to better quantify the relationship between CO2 emissions and the resulting increase
in atmospheric abundance.
Models differ considerably
in their estimates of the strength of different feedbacks
in the climate system, particularly cloud feedbacks,
oceanic heat uptake and carbon
cycle feedbacks, although progress has been made
in these areas.
Since 2009, US CLIVAR has collaborated with the OCB Program, whose mission is to study the impact of
oceanic variability
in the global carbon
cycle in the face of environmental variability and change.