We find that an increase
in poleward heat transport by the tropical ocean results in a warming of the extra-tropics, relatively little change in the tropical temperatures, moistening of the subtropical dry zones, and partial but incomplete compensation of the planetary - scale energy transport by the atmosphere.
You have variations
in poleward heat transport and a change in the intensity of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events.
Suppose that there has been a multi-century increase
in the poleward heat transport in the oceans due to internal variability, which warms the poles, reduces ice extent and albedos, and thereby warms the planet.
RE # 11 The role of hurricanes
in the poleward heat transport immediately leads to the question, how is the poleward heat transport divided between atmospheric and oceanic routes?
And no, there is no huge plunge in tropical or global surface air temperatures when the ocean circulation spins up because there is a near - compensating decrease
in poleward heat transport via the atmospheric circulation.
Not exact matches
Is less
poleward transport of
heat by the Gulf Stream as the AMOC weakens a positive feedback for global warming, since that energy will escape more slowly
in the humid (higher water vapor GHG effect) tropics than near the poles?
Major differences
in simulated surface salinities had a significant impact on the calculated
poleward heat transports.
Reduction
in ice free area, a positive feedback to the atmosphere increases
poleward ocean
heat transport, a negative feedback for the oceans.
If you have faith
in the climate models and have any knowledge of what they do with reduced
poleward ocean
heat transport, then you are expecting cooling unless the AMOC should speed back up.
The YD shows strongly up
in GRIP but is much less pronounced
in the Antarctic cores because interrupting the AMOC turns
poleward ocean
heat transport on and off causing abrupt NH climate change.
Conversely, during low solar activity during the Little Ice Age,
transport of warm water was reduced by 10 % and Arctic sea ice increased.17 Although it is not a situation I would ever hope for, if history repeats itself, then natural climate dynamics of the past suggest, the current drop
in the sun's output will produce a similar cooler climate, and it will likely be detected first as a slow down
in the
poleward transport of ocean
heat.22 Should we prepare for this possibility?
In our model simulations this weakens the AMOC and
poleward ocean
heat transport, and diminishes the contribution of ocean
heat transport to the reduction of Arctic sea ice extent.
The post 1995 AMO and Arctic warming is the natural response to the decline
in solar wind pressure since then, by it increasing negative NAO / AO conditions, and thereby increasing the
poleward heat transports.
Models also show that a change
in poleward ocean
heat transport can create large changes
in the climate.
They forced the model with CO2 and happened to catch it when it was
in the process of increasing
poleward ocean
heat transport.
Put another way, a warmer climate will place greater demands on the atmosphere to
transport heat upward and
poleward, but this will be done more efficiently,
in a smaller number of events that each accomplish more of the required
transport.
In which case, half of the global warming in the last three decades is due to the negative feedback of increased poleward oceanic heat transport as a result of weaker solar activit
In which case, half of the global warming
in the last three decades is due to the negative feedback of increased poleward oceanic heat transport as a result of weaker solar activit
in the last three decades is due to the negative feedback of increased
poleward oceanic
heat transport as a result of weaker solar activity.
I missed the part where you mentioned the balance
in the AMO and an equal balance
in any long term
poleward ocean
heat transport.
All of the warming since the LIA can easily be explained by increases
in poleward ocean
heat transport.
Similar to the return flow
in a household
heating system, these currents
transport colder waters into the tropics where they are
heated and
transported poleward in the western boundary currents.
Waters moving
in the western boundary currents adjacent to the major gyres (North and South Pacific and Atlantic basins and the Indian basin)
transport large quantities of
heat poleward from the tropics.
While the baroclinic systems are efficient
in transporting heat, the enormous negative radiative forcing (Fig. 2) associated with these cloud systems seems to undo the
poleward transport of
heat by the dynamics.
However, Earth's surface energy balance dictates that net
poleward heat transport should be symmetrical
in both hemispheres.
Several mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain this reduced temperature gradient, including increased
poleward heat transport, decreased ice albedo, and changes
in cloud cover (Fedorov et al., 2006).
However, the mechanism of increased
poleward heat transport can not be the only physical mechanism driving the reduced temperature gradient because it is
in fact the surface temperature gradient that ultimately drives the flux of
heat poleward.
Most of the observed decline
in the latitudinal temperature gradient during the Pliocene can be explained by increased
poleward heat transport.
back to the horizontal gradient, if the upper tropospheric thermal wind shear increase is greater than the decrease of the lower layer, then maybe the overall baroclinic instability would be stronger — but currently the upper level eddy circulations do not
transport much
heat poleward, so would the structure of cyclones change so that a deeper layer of air is involved
in the thermal advection, compensating for a weaker temperature gradient?
This is one of the simplest models for the pole - to - equator surface temperature distribution and ice latitude on a spherical planet
in the presence of
poleward heat transport.
On Earth this happens close to 30 degrees latitude, and
poleward of this the
heat transport is dominated by mid-latitude eddies rather than being under the wings of a giant overturning circulation (you can still find references to a mid-latitude «Ferrell cell»
in textbooks, but this is not a good description of what happens).
Through baroclinic instability, the potential energy associated with temperature gradients is converted into the energy
in atmospheric eddies that dominate the
heat and angular momentum
transport poleward of the subsiding region of the Hadley cell.
Observational and modelling evidence suggest that
poleward ocean
heat transport (OHT) can vary
in response to both natural climate variability and greenhouse warming.