Zhanqing Li, lead author of a paper published in Nature Geoscience and University of Maryland atmospheric scientist, says, «Using a 10 - year dataset of atmospheric measurements, we have uncovered the long - term, net impact of aerosols on cloud height and thickness and the resulting changes
in precipitation frequency and intensity.»
A decrease
in precipitation frequency translates into even more year - to - year variability in fresh water resources for the Southwest.
Not exact matches
It also has seen a 71 percent increase
in the
frequency of extreme
precipitation events — more than any other region
in the United States, according to the paper.
«If we look at
precipitation events over the long term, there is an increase
in frequency of extremes.
The Doppler radar currently used by the National Weather Service also measures the
frequency change
in returning waves, which provides the direction and speed at which the
precipitation is moving.
The panel finds that humans have already contributed to an increase
in the
frequency and duration of heat waves and an intensification of heavy
precipitation events.
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF ERUPTION Yellowstone's Old Faithful geyser is famous for its near - clocklike regularity, but scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey recently determined that annual
precipitation influences the overall
frequency of eruptions
in Yellowstone: The more it rains and snows nearby, the more often the geysers pop.
The authors predict a 25 % rise
in the
frequency of
precipitation whiplash events by the end of the twenty - first century
in northern California, increasing up to 100 %
in southern California.
Daniel Swain and colleagues model how the
frequency of these rapid, year - to - year transitions from extreme dry to wet conditions — which they dub «
precipitation whiplash events» — may change
in California's future as a consequence of man - made warming.
Researchers charge global warming with projected significant increases
in the
frequency of both extreme
precipitation and landfalling atmospheric rivers
However, there has been a general trend of decreasing winter
precipitation from 1950 to present; this pattern is most evident
in the northwest and central portions of the state and may be due to increased
frequency of El Niño events (see Climate chapter).
This is addressed by evaluating change
in global or large - scale patterns
in the
frequency or intensity of extremes (e.g., observed widespread intensification of
precipitation extremes attributed to human influence, increase
in frequency and intensity of hot extremes) and by event attribution methods.
According to Ghosh, the fast growth rate of these snails makes them «ideal candidate [s] to record high -
frequency changes
in the monsoon
precipitation.»
The
frequency and amount of
precipitation falling
in intense events are underestimated.
I was very interested
in getting the
precipitation amounts, locations and
frequency, intensity, times, weird rains correct to get the runoff simulated.
Using high - resolution modeling with theoretical and statistical analysis, researchers revealed a direct link between
in - cloud processes and the
frequency of
precipitation extremes.
In Table I Ling exp is linguistic expression, Quant» is quantification, Not»n is notation, % is percentage, MT is mean temperature, °C is degrees Celsius, MP is mean
precipitation, kg m2 is kilogram per square metre, MGFF is mean ground frost
frequency, Alt is altitude, m is metre.
The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations
in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations
in circulation patterns; changes
in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2.
This rhythm
in storm
frequency may explain some of the recently observed increases
in extreme
precipitation events.
I should add too that I was not allowed at work to study or talk about trends
in frequency and magnitude of floods or trends
in temperatures and
precipitation, due to the «highly political and controversial subject of global warming».
I certainly agree that continued warming will increase the
frequency of a variety of extremes related to heat, sea level,
precipitation, etc. and
in fact, some of that is already happening.
«Century of Data Shows Intensification of Water Cycle but No Increase
in Storms or Floods Released: 3/15/2006 12:13:21 PM» (excerpt) A review of the findings from more than 100 peer - reviewed studies shows that although many aspects of the global water cycle have intensified, including
precipitation and evaporation, this trend has not consistently resulted
in an increase
in the
frequency or intensity of tropical storms or floods over the past century.
A clear and more detailed explanation can be found
in Section 2.1 of the Simmons et al 2010 JGR article «Low -
frequency variations
in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature, and
precipitation: Inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded observational data sets» (doi: 10.1029 / 2009JD012442).
-- Projected
precipitation and temperature changes imply changes
in floods, although overall there is low confidence at the global scale regarding climate - driven changes
in magnitude or
frequency of river - related flooding, due to limited evidence and because the causes of regional changes are complex.
-- It is likely that the
frequency of heavy
precipitation will increase
in the 21st century over many regions.
-- Increases
in intensity and
frequency of heat waves and extreme
precipitation events (a category
in which it includes droughts, floods, hurricanes and major storms)
Without El Niño and La Niña feeding into the climate model, the
frequency of extreme
precipitation in California stayed constant for the simulation's century and a half.
Visible changes
in hydrological cycle have been observed
in the form of changing
precipitation patterns, cropping patterns, droughts, water availability periods,
frequency and intensity of heatwaves,
precipitation events and weather - induced natural disasters.
They include soaring temperatures, declining late - season snowpack, northward - shifted winter storm tracks, increasing
precipitation intensity, the worst drought since measurements began, steep declines
in Colorado River reservoir storage, widespread vegetation mortality, and sharp increases
in the
frequency of large wildfires.
Whether climate change is expressed as a rise
in temperatures, or as changing
precipitation patterns — it is at the extreme edges of the graph that the
frequency of weather events suddenly multiplies dramatically.
This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low -
frequency variability (trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as
in the case for global - mean
precipitation and surface fluxes).
Accordingly, there is less certainty about the changes
in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones on a regional basis than for temperature and
precipitation changes.
Increases
in the
frequency and intensity of extreme
precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions.
Snowfall varies across the region, comprising less than 10 % of total
precipitation in the south, to more than half
in the north, with as much as two inches of water available
in the snowpack at the beginning of spring melt
in the northern reaches of the river basins.81 When this amount of snowmelt is combined with heavy rainfall, the resulting flooding can be widespread and catastrophic (see «Cedar Rapids: A Tale of Vulnerability and Response»).82 Historical observations indicate declines
in the
frequency of high magnitude snowfall years over much of the Midwest, 83 but an increase
in lake effect snowfall.61 These divergent trends and their inverse relationships with air temperatures make overall projections of regional impacts of the associated snowmelt extremely difficult.
Simmons, A. J., K. M. Willett, P. D. Jones, P. W. Thorne, and D. P. Dee, 2010: Low -
frequency variations
in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature, and
precipitation: Inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded observational data sets.
Figure 9.6: Maps show the increase
in frequency of extreme daily
precipitation events (a daily amount that now occurs just once
in 20 years) by the later part of this century (2081 - 2100) compared to the latter part of the last century (1981 - 2000).
Given projected increases
in the
frequency and intensity of extreme
precipitation events
in the Midwest (Chapter 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 6), 57 it appears that sewer overflow will continue to constitute a significant current health threat and a critical source of climate change vulnerability for major urban areas within the Midwest.
For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase
in both storm
frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased
in number during the last century
in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally decreased
in southern and some western areas, 16 increased
in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed
in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier
in the year and more
precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing
in frequency in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed
in the Midwest and Northeast U.S.
in some years, with little snow
in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends
in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends
in blocking remains an active research area.
2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5).2 Regional climate models (RCMs) using the same emissions scenario also project increased spring
precipitation (9 %
in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) and decreased summer
precipitation (by an average of about 8 %
in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) particularly
in the southern portions of the Midwest.12 Increases
in the
frequency and intensity of extreme
precipitation are projected across the entire region
in both GCM and RCM simulations (Figure 18.6), and these increases are generally larger than the projected changes
in average
precipitation.12, 2
Low -
frequency variations
in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature, and
precipitation: Inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded observational data sets
The
frequency of heavy
precipitation events has already increased for the nation as a whole, and is projected to increase
in all U.S. regions (Ch.
There are also multiple studies associating extreme
precipitation events with waterborne disease outbreaks.59 This evidence of responsiveness of waterborne disease to weather and climate, combined with evidence strongly suggesting that temperatures will increase and extreme
precipitation events will increase
in frequency and severity (Ch.
You would just need
precipitation events to reduce
in frequency but increase
in intensity.
In weather systems, convergence of increased water vapor leads to more intense precipitation and the risk of heavy rain and snow events, but may also lead to reductions in duration and / or frequency of rain events, given that total amounts do not change muc
In weather systems, convergence of increased water vapor leads to more intense
precipitation and the risk of heavy rain and snow events, but may also lead to reductions
in duration and / or frequency of rain events, given that total amounts do not change muc
in duration and / or
frequency of rain events, given that total amounts do not change much.
There are multiple studies associating extreme
precipitation events with waterborne disease outbreaks and strong climatological evidence for increasing
frequency and intensity of extreme
precipitation events
in the future.
Recognizing that the impacts of changes
in the
frequency and intensity of these storms can easily exceed the impacts of changes
in average temperature or
precipitation, climate scientists are actively researching the connections between climate change and severe storms.
Scientists agree that even a small increases
in the global temperature lead to significant climate and weather changes, affecting cloud cover,
precipitation, wind patterns, the
frequency and severity of storms, and the timing of seasons.
Figure 2.19: Maps show the increase
in frequency of extreme daily
precipitation events (a daily amount that now occurs once
in 20 years) by the later part of this century (2081 - 2100) compared to the later part of last century (1981 - 2000).
The intensity /
frequency of
precipitation events
in a global context under the wider context of climate change is always worth exploring.
However,
precipitation intensity changes nonlinearly with temperature (Lenderink, and van Meijgaard, 2008; doi: 10.1038 / ngeo262), circulations and the
frequency of dry / wet spells may change (Haarsma et al, 2009; doi: 10.1029 / 2008GL036617), simultaneous occurrence of floods and storm surges changes nonlinearly (Kew et al,
in review), and this is just the «meteorological» part of the spectrum.