Sentences with phrase «in prediction skill»

Ollinaho, P., Bechtold, P., Leutbecher, M., Laine, M., Solonen, A., Haario, H. and Järvinen, H. Parameter variations in prediction skill optimization at ECMWF.

Not exact matches

his predictions for this season are already in tatters after just 6 weeks which is no surprise to me as he cant put out a balanced quality XI as he hasnt built it due to a mixture of his arrogance and cheapness... so let me say it again draxler griezman and kondogbia should and could have been brought in (griezman should have been chased at end of season wenger knew his skills and before he signed an extension with athletico)... walcott ramsey flamini and arteta sold... net spend about 50 to 60m... or the price of sterling....

Time for some brutal honesty... this team, as it stands, is in no better position to compete next season than they were 12 months ago, minus the fact that some fans have been easily snowed by the acquisition of Lacazette, the free transfer LB and the release of Sanogo... if you look at the facts carefully you will see a team that still has far more questions than answers... to better show what I mean by this statement I will briefly discuss the current state of affairs on a position - by - position basis... in goal we have 4 potential candidates, but in reality we have only 1 option with any real future and somehow he's the only one we have actively tried to get rid of for years because he and his father were a little too involved on social media and he got caught smoking (funny how people still defend Wiltshire under the same and far worse circumstances)... you would think we would want to keep any goaltender that Juventus had interest in, as they seem to have a pretty good history when it comes to that position... as far as the defenders on our current roster there are only a few individuals whom have the skill and / or youth worthy of our time and / or investment, as such we should get rid of anyone who doesn't meet those simple requirements, which means we should get rid of DeBouchy, Gibbs, Gabriel, Mertz and loan out Chambers to see if last seasons foray with Middlesborough was an anomaly or a prediction of things to come... some fans have lamented wildly about the return of Mertz to the starting lineup due to his FA Cup performance but these sort of pie in the sky meanderings are indicative of what's wrong with this club and it's wishy - washy fan - base... in addition to these moves the club should aggressively pursue the acquisition of dominant and mobile CB to stabilize an all too fragile defensive group that has self - destructed on numerous occasions over the past 5 seasons... moving forward and building on our need to re-establish our once dominant presence throughout the middle of the park we need to target a CDM then do whatever it takes to get that player into the fold without any of the usual nickel and diming we have become famous for (this kind of ruthless haggling has cost us numerous special players and certainly can't help make the player in question feel good about the way their future potential employer feels about them)... in order for us to become dominant again we need to be strong up the middle again from Goalkeeper to CB to DM to ACM to striker, like we did in our most glorious years before and during Wenger's reign... with this in mind, if we want Ozil to be that dominant attacking midfielder we can't keep leaving him exposed to constant ridicule about his lack of defensive prowess and provide him with the proper players in the final third... he was never a good defensive player in Real or with the German National squad and they certainly didn't suffer as a result of his presence on the pitch... as for the rest of the midfield the blame falls squarely in the hands of Wenger and Gazidis, the fact that Ramsey, Ox, Sanchez and even Ozil were allowed to regularly start when none of the aforementioned had more than a year left under contract is criminal for a club of this size and financial might... the fact that we could find money for Walcott and Xhaka, who weren't even guaranteed starters, means that our whole business model needs a complete overhaul... for me it's time to get rid of some serious deadweight, even if it means selling them below what you believe their market value is just to simply right this ship and change the stagnant culture that currently exists... this means saying goodbye to Wiltshire, Elneny, Carzola, Walcott and Ramsey... everyone, minus Elneny, have spent just as much time on the training table as on the field of play, which would be manageable if they weren't so inconsistent from a performance standpoint (excluding Carzola, who is like the recent version of Rosicky — too bad, both will be deeply missed)... in their places we need to bring in some proven performers with no history of injuries... up front, although I do like the possibilities that a player like Lacazette presents, the fact that we had to wait so many years to acquire some true quality at the striker position falls once again squarely at the feet of Wenger... this issue highlights the ultimate scam being perpetrated by this club since the arrival of Kroenke: pretend your a small market club when it comes to making purchases but milk your fans like a big market club when it comes to ticket prices and merchandising... I believe the reason why Wenger hasn't pursued someone of Henry's quality, minus a fairly inexpensive RVP, was that he knew that they would demand players of a similar ilk to be brought on board and that wasn't possible when the business model was that of a «selling» club... does it really make sense that we could only make a cheeky bid for Suarez, or that we couldn't get Higuain over the line when he was being offered up for half the price he eventually went to Juve for, or that we've only paid any interest to strikers who were clearly not going to press their current teams to let them go to Arsenal like Benzema or Cavani... just part of the facade that finally came crashing down when Sanchez finally called their bluff... the fact remains that no one wants to win more than Sanchez, including Wenger, and although I don't agree with everything that he has done off the field, I would much rather have Alexis front and center than a manager who has clearly bought into the Kroenke model in large part due to the fact that his enormous ego suggests that only he could accomplish great things without breaking the bank... unfortunately that isn't possible anymore as the game has changed quite dramatically in the last 15 years, which has left a largely complacent and complicit Wenger on the outside looking in... so don't blame those players who demanded more and were left wanting... don't blame those fans who have tried desperately to raise awareness for several years when cracks began to appear... place the blame at the feet of those who were well aware all along of the potential pitfalls of just such a plan but continued to follow it even when it was no longer a financial necessity, like it ever really was...

Also of note is the finding that the best performing young footballers who will go on to play the sport professionally display superior dribbling skills, endurance capacity and tactical awareness compared to their peers, from as early as 14 years of age.9 17 These differences appear well before it is possible to accumulate 10 000 h of practice, but allow predictions of which players will go on to achieve best performances in adulthood, suggesting that the effectiveness of and response to training, rather than simply training, determines success.

Well, it worked a treat as they beat Huddersfield last weekend — a result that was guessed correctly in Bet and Skill's free tips and predictions, which back the Yorkshire side to bounce back with a draw against Brighton on Saturday.

The game is now open for predictions ahead of MCFC's match against Arsenal this Saturday, so show us your prediction skills and be in with a chance of winning this once in a lifetime prize!

Party establishment in DC reacted negatively; suggesting Silver has skills and has had some predictive success in the past; but then they dismiss his predictions for the mid-term Senate election.

«We believe that our findings have implications for prediction and diagnosis of later language deficits and for intervention that may improve language skills,» explained lead author Susan Goldin - Meadow, the Beardsley Ruml Distinguished Service Professor in Psychology at the University.

By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut of estimating changes in hurricane frequency and intensity in a warming climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up with a modeling system with seasonal skill in regional hurricane prediction.

[v] Thus, if we know only the genetic relationship between two students, we can make strong predictions about the degree to which they will be similar in an abstract soft skill such as conscientiousness.

*** Includes 129 original reading passages and comprehension questions *** *** Includes 30 fluency passages *** *** Includes 11 Reading Posters *** - character, setting, realism and fantasy, main idea and details, cause and effect, author's purpose, compare and contrast, sequence, plot, theme, and drawing conclusions *** Includes four level charts for teachers, parents, or students, so that they can keep track of their progress *** *** Includes a roster - words correct per minute for each student / child for fall / winter / spring *** Skills addressed in this resource: # 1 - think and search # 2 - author and me # 3 - analyze text structure # 4 - identify setting # 5 - identify character # 6 - identify plot # 7 - make and confirm predictions # 8 - cause and effect # 9 - compare and contrast # 10 - retell # 11 - classify and categorize # 12 - alliteration # 13 - rhyme and rhythmic patterns # 14 - onomatopoeia # 15 - similes # 16 - repetition and word choice # 17 - sensory language # 18 - study skills # 19 - text features # 20 - genres This is GREAT practice for testing while also providing a lot of fluency praSkills addressed in this resource: # 1 - think and search # 2 - author and me # 3 - analyze text structure # 4 - identify setting # 5 - identify character # 6 - identify plot # 7 - make and confirm predictions # 8 - cause and effect # 9 - compare and contrast # 10 - retell # 11 - classify and categorize # 12 - alliteration # 13 - rhyme and rhythmic patterns # 14 - onomatopoeia # 15 - similes # 16 - repetition and word choice # 17 - sensory language # 18 - study skills # 19 - text features # 20 - genres This is GREAT practice for testing while also providing a lot of fluency praskills # 19 - text features # 20 - genres This is GREAT practice for testing while also providing a lot of fluency practice!

For comprehension instruction, eight different instructional practices were observed and coded: doing a picture walk; asking for a prediction; asking a text - based question; asking a higher level, aesthetic response question; asking children to write in response to reading (including writing answers to questions about what they had read); doing a story map; asking children to retell a story; and working on a comprehension skill or strategy.

Introduce word prediction to students in upper elementary school, after they have had plenty of intervention to improve spelling skills and they have plateaued.

Students generate predictions of what will happen when they apply this information or skill in different contexts.

Reading Skills Practice: Making predictions, understanding vocabulary in context using context clues, finding the main idea, sequencing, identifying problems.

The third unit, Character Studies, lures children into fiction books, teaching them to closely observe characters, make predictions, and sharpen their skills in interpretation.

Children ramp up their reading skills by immersing themselves in within - reach fiction books while working on word solving, vocabulary development, envisionment, and prediction.

Predict and win contest is one kind of a contest from Epic Research which tests the analytic skills of traders and enhances their prediction skills to analyze the market and do in depth analysis to predict the Market price.

The fact that the hindcasts with their method perform worse than a standard IPCC scenario, the number of failed previous cooling predictions, the negative skill in the Gulf Stream and deep - water formation regions... should these not have cautioned them against going to the media to forecast a pause in global warming?

Norbert's legacy challenges those of us who engage in predictions to prove our skill and to understand and explain the limitations of our techniques so they are not used erroneously to misinform the public or to influence policy... more about that later and here.

«Norbert's legacy challenges those of us who engage in predictions to prove our skill and to understand and explain the limitations of our techniques so they are not used erroneously to misinform the public or to influence policy»

Collins (2002) investigated this type of climate prediction, and found limited skill using a few metrics, in a few regions (one of these included the north Atlantic).

In online science discussions, the fate of this years summer sea ice has been the focus of a significant betting pool, a test of expert prediction skills, and a week - by - week (almost) running commentary.

This can involve «perfect model» experiments (where you test to see whether you can predict the evolution of a model simulation given only what we know about the real world), or hindcasts (as used by K08), and only where there is demonstrated skill is there any point in making a prediction for the real world.

What you guys will not come clean about however, is that these initial conditions of the ocean / atmosphere also impart a large range of uncertainty on multi-decadal predictions, even though you are invoking changes in boundary values to gain skill.

You might be surprised to learn that the Met Office takes it's prediction business very seriously, and if there was real skill in long - range weather forecasts they would use it.

So, in closing, I'm still waiting for some skill or predictions of periodicities between the Earth and Jupiter / Saturn, known and confirmed periodicities, because, by golly, I don't believe everything in our Solar System is actually made up out of literally hundreds and hundreds of constants.

Yuan et al. (LDEO Columbia University), 5.08 (+ / - 0.51), Statistical The prediction is made by statistical models, which are capable to predict Arctic sea ice concentrations at grid points 3 - month in advance with reasonable skills.

Skill (or lack of) in regional predictions is, I believe, not very good, and it's a big concern for honest modelers.

Although the forecast quality of climate predictions in Europe is low, sometimes the realism and reliability of these predictions can overcome the lack of skill.

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society

Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end - toend decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales.

However, type 4 downscaling, while providing the illusion of higher skill because of the high spatial resolution climate fields, has never shown skill at prediction beyond what is already there in the parent global model.

The IPCC, unfortunately, has failed to properly communicate that the «projections» are only providing, at best, what is possible, and does not in any way, provide a demonstration of quantitative likelihood or evidence of any actual regional and local prediction skill on multi-decadal time periods.

Roger states that one can not consider climate model predictions (his type 4) at the regional scale when their predictive skill in hindcast mode is not demonstrated.

I also would value your response to summarize how you conclude we should assess the skill of multi-decadal climate predictions of changes in climate statistics.

The discussion on the issue of multi-decadal climate prediction skill, and the meanings given to the terms «prediction»,» projection» and «scenario» have continued also in the comments to the posts

One should realize that there is ALWAYS a chance that predictions do not come true, even if the model has shown skill in hindcast studies; 2.

As they have matured, climate models are being increasingly used to provide decision - relevant information to end users and policy makers, whose needs are helping define the focus of model development in terms of increasing prediction skill on regional and decadal time scales.

In your answer to 1 (24 - 06 12:32) you state that unless models have proven skill in predicting changes in climate statistics on multi-decadal timescales, they should not be used for projections or predictionIn your answer to 1 (24 - 06 12:32) you state that unless models have proven skill in predicting changes in climate statistics on multi-decadal timescales, they should not be used for projections or predictionin predicting changes in climate statistics on multi-decadal timescales, they should not be used for projections or predictionin climate statistics on multi-decadal timescales, they should not be used for projections or predictions.

The mechanics of the models produce regional scale results, but, until the multi-decadal regional predictions of changes in climate statistics can be shown to be skilful, the added spatial resolution provides an erroneous illusion of skill.

Within the confines of our work with RASM and CESM, we will: (i) quantify the added value of using regional models for downscaling arctic simulations from global models, (ii) address the impacts of high resolution, improved process representations and coupling between model components on predictions at seasonal to decadal time scales, (iii) identify the most important processes essential for inclusion in future high resolution GC / ESMs, e.g. ACME, using CESM as a test bed, and (iv) better quantify the relationship between skill and uncertainty in the Arctic Region for high fidelity models.

The notion that a tool — an RCM — may possess shortcomings in its predictive skill, but simultaneously prove to be a valuable tool to support narratives that are relevant to policy making and spatial planning can in fact be extended to highlighting the difference between «climate predictions» and «climate scenarios».

However, initialized prediction ensembles using CESM can skillfully predict low - frequency modulations in the decadal trends of Arctic sea ice, and the significant skill scores for Atlantic sector sea ice extent, in particular, suggest that CESM DP future forecasts merit serious consideration.

Stroeve et al., «Predicting September Sea Ice — Ensemble Skill of the Search Sea Ice Outlook 2008 — 2013» (GRL 2014) observes that in some years predictions are pretty good and in others they stink.

My first beef with AGW was the over-reliance on computer models, which make accurate kind - casts but have no skill in prediction.

This questioning of the CO2 - based climate models has recently come to the forefront in recognition that the models and climate modelers appear to have literally no skill in climate predictions, meaning that the models are in need of major revisions.

Formal prediction must rigorously address issues of uncertainty, skill, and methodology and such predictions are generally stated in terms of probabilities.

Recent improvements in forecast skill of the climate system by dynamical climate models could lead to improvements in seasonal streamflow predictions.

In a century, we probably will be able to make quantitative climate predictions with some skill.