Differences in productivity growth between the United States, Japan and the euro area account to a substantial extent for the ten - year swings of the real dollar exchange rate over the past three decades, according to Cedric Tille, Nicolas Stoffels, and Olga Gorbachev.
Both the official estimate and the Diwewert - Yu estimate, it added, «point to a general slowdown
in productivity growth over the past decade in Canada and relative to the United States.»
Lucky for you, Hartnett has also identified two drivers that could prolong the bull market: (1) an unanticipated
surge in productivity growth, and (2) a speculative bubble from a Great Rotation out of negatively yielding debt into stock markets.
Tiffany Wilding, executive vice president and economist, Pacific Investment Management Co.: «Absent a
pickup in productivity growth, slowing payroll growth and rising economic capacity constraints should coincide with a gradual deceleration in real economic activity and building inflationary pressures.
Using medium - term
fluctuations in productivity growth, we test the relationship between productivity growth and two key measures of typical compensation growth: median compensation, and average compensation for production and nonsupervisory workers.
Making use of the high frequency
changes in productivity growth over one - to five - year periods, we run a series of regressions to test this link more rigorously.
Finally, if we assume a sustained
explosion in productivity growth to 2.8 % annually, joining the highest quintile of historical U.S. productivity growth rates for any 8 - year period, and assuming an unemployment rate of just 4 % in 2024, the result would still be real U.S. GDP growth averaging just 3.2 % annually over the next 8 years.
However, while demographic shifts are fairly predictable, it is less clear how much of the decline
in productivity growth reflects a structural change and how much is a cyclical response to the subdued recovery.
In fact, the long - run expected increase in the real exchange rate between two countries can be approximated by the difference
in productivity growth rates (estimated by real per capita GDP growth rates).
In particular, they noted that, among other factors, pressure on margins from strong competition and a faster - than - expected pick -
up in productivity growth could delay the pass - through of tighter labour market conditions to inflationary pressure.»
«Corporates» reticence to invest or deploy balance sheet reserves has resulted in a sharp
decline in productivity growth, which acts as a headwind to developed market economies,» McQuaker told CNBC.
Outside of the mining sector, the general
improvement in productivity growth may have been in response to a range of competitive pressures coming to bear during a period of weak growth of aggregate demand.
Because of the
differences in productivity growth, in the long run we expect emerging market currencies to appreciate relative to the U.S. dollar and other major developed world currencies.
(ii) It is plausible that hysteresis effects account for some of the decline
in productivity growth and that if so allowing for rapid demand growth might have lasting supply side benefits.