May differ from the sum of individual industries due to differences
in seasonal adjustment.
Interpretation of data on imports is complicated by differences
in the seasonal adjustments calculated on a monthly and quarterly basis.
Not exact matches
A recent report by professional services firm Deloitte Access Economics suggests retail spending could be slowly picking up
in Western Australia, with recent official data finding sales grew 0.3 per cent
in January after
seasonal adjustment.
Which brings us to the 2008 - 9 period which is known to have caused echo effects
in the X-12
seasonal adjustment process elsewhere.
In contrast, smoothed annualized growth rates, which we have traditionally preferred, presume proper
seasonal adjustment.
If you strip out «inconsistent
seasonal adjustments,» the decline
in February retail sales was 0.48 % (John Williams, Shadowstats.com).
But as I noted last week, much of that effect is actually tied to the very heavy downward
seasonal adjustment that accompanies initial claims data
in January.
*
Seasonal adjustment removes normal seasonal variations, enabling analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends in t
Seasonal adjustment removes normal
seasonal variations, enabling analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends in t
seasonal variations, enabling analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends
in the data.
The
seasonal adjustment factors for non-farm payroll employment vary between 1.0157 and 0.9920, which doesn't mean much until you put these numbers
in context.
Before
seasonal adjustment, continuing claims fell by 129,463 to 1.735 million, well below the 1.949 million level seen
in the comparable week last year.
WASHINGTON (AP)-- U.S. manufacturing output declined
in August for the first time
in seven months, reflecting a sharp fall
in production at auto plants that was due mainly to
seasonal adjustment problems.
(The regional data are available only without
seasonal adjustment, and so the four - year total is slightly different from the one presented
in the seasonally adjusted estimate):
On a seasonally - adjusted basis, the monetary base has increased by about $ 36 billion since September, but since the
seasonal adjustment factor plunges
in the first two months of the year as holiday cash demands subside, the seasonally - adjusted monetary base will spike by about $ 60 billion even if the Fed does nothing
in the next two months.
@zingfinapp That's part of the nature of the
seasonal adjustment factor: when jobs over / undershoot
in current month, they adjust prior same Aug 03, 2013
The
adjustments will be determined by multiplying $ 2,085, or the most recent inflation adjusted amount, by the sum of all subsequent annual average percentage changes of All Items CPI - U, before
seasonal adjustment, for the 12 - month periods ending
in December.
Changes
in the outdoor temperature at every season will require you to make
seasonal adjustments to the temperature and humidity controls for your reptile or amphibian.
The only differences
in the GCM are a few bug fixes related to the calculation of
seasonal insolation (a problem discovered
in Model II
in the mid-1990's) and an
adjustment to the grid configuration that makes Model II's grid an exact multiple of the more recent generations of GISS GCMs (like Model E).
So
seasonal adjustments may have to be made
in this regard.
Either limit the data to July / August or do some sort of
seasonal adjustment and the important question should be easy to answer: are extremely hot days more or less likely today than
in the past?
General Introduction Two Main Goals Identifying Patterns
in Time Series Data Systematic pattern and random noise Two general aspects of time series patterns Trend Analysis Analysis of Seasonality ARIMA (Box & Jenkins) and Autocorrelations General Introduction Two Common Processes ARIMA Methodology Identification Phase Parameter Estimation Evaluation of the Model Interrupted Time Series Exponential Smoothing General Introduction Simple Exponential Smoothing Choosing the Best Value for Parameter a (alpha) Indices of Lack of Fit (Error)
Seasonal and Non-seasonal Models With or Without Trend Seasonal Decomposition (Census I) General Introduction Computations X-11 Census method II seasonal adjustment Seasonal Adjustment: Basic Ideas and Terms The Census II Method Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Specific Description of all Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Distributed Lags Analysis General Purpose General Model Almon Distributed Lag Single Spectrum (Fourier) Analysis Cross-spectrum Analysis General Introduction Basic Notation and Principles Results for Each Variable The Cross-periodogram, Cross-density, Quadrature - density, and Cross-amplitude Squared Coherency, Gain, and Phase Shift How the Example Data were Created Spectrum Analysis — Basic Notations and Principles Frequency and Period The General Structural Model A Simple Example Periodogram The Problem of Leakage Padding the Time Series Tapering Data Windows and Spectral Density Estimates Preparing the Data for Analysis Results when no Periodicity in the Series Exists Fast Fourier Transformations General Introduction Computation of FFT in Tim
Seasonal and Non-
seasonal Models With or Without Trend Seasonal Decomposition (Census I) General Introduction Computations X-11 Census method II seasonal adjustment Seasonal Adjustment: Basic Ideas and Terms The Census II Method Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Specific Description of all Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Distributed Lags Analysis General Purpose General Model Almon Distributed Lag Single Spectrum (Fourier) Analysis Cross-spectrum Analysis General Introduction Basic Notation and Principles Results for Each Variable The Cross-periodogram, Cross-density, Quadrature - density, and Cross-amplitude Squared Coherency, Gain, and Phase Shift How the Example Data were Created Spectrum Analysis — Basic Notations and Principles Frequency and Period The General Structural Model A Simple Example Periodogram The Problem of Leakage Padding the Time Series Tapering Data Windows and Spectral Density Estimates Preparing the Data for Analysis Results when no Periodicity in the Series Exists Fast Fourier Transformations General Introduction Computation of FFT in Tim
seasonal Models With or Without Trend
Seasonal Decomposition (Census I) General Introduction Computations X-11 Census method II seasonal adjustment Seasonal Adjustment: Basic Ideas and Terms The Census II Method Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Specific Description of all Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Distributed Lags Analysis General Purpose General Model Almon Distributed Lag Single Spectrum (Fourier) Analysis Cross-spectrum Analysis General Introduction Basic Notation and Principles Results for Each Variable The Cross-periodogram, Cross-density, Quadrature - density, and Cross-amplitude Squared Coherency, Gain, and Phase Shift How the Example Data were Created Spectrum Analysis — Basic Notations and Principles Frequency and Period The General Structural Model A Simple Example Periodogram The Problem of Leakage Padding the Time Series Tapering Data Windows and Spectral Density Estimates Preparing the Data for Analysis Results when no Periodicity in the Series Exists Fast Fourier Transformations General Introduction Computation of FFT in Tim
Seasonal Decomposition (Census I) General Introduction Computations X-11 Census method II
seasonal adjustment Seasonal Adjustment: Basic Ideas and Terms The Census II Method Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Specific Description of all Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Distributed Lags Analysis General Purpose General Model Almon Distributed Lag Single Spectrum (Fourier) Analysis Cross-spectrum Analysis General Introduction Basic Notation and Principles Results for Each Variable The Cross-periodogram, Cross-density, Quadrature - density, and Cross-amplitude Squared Coherency, Gain, and Phase Shift How the Example Data were Created Spectrum Analysis — Basic Notations and Principles Frequency and Period The General Structural Model A Simple Example Periodogram The Problem of Leakage Padding the Time Series Tapering Data Windows and Spectral Density Estimates Preparing the Data for Analysis Results when no Periodicity in the Series Exists Fast Fourier Transformations General Introduction Computation of FFT in Tim
seasonal adjustment Seasonal Adjustment: Basic Ideas and Terms The Census II Method Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Specific Description of all Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Distributed Lags Analysis General Purpose General Model Almon Distributed Lag Single Spectrum (Fourier) Analysis Cross-spectrum Analysis General Introduction Basic Notation and Principles Results for Each Variable The Cross-periodogram, Cross-density, Quadrature - density, and Cross-amplitude Squared Coherency, Gain, and Phase Shift How the Example Data were Created Spectrum Analysis — Basic Notations and Principles Frequency and Period The General Structural Model A Simple Example Periodogram The Problem of Leakage Padding the Time Series Tapering Data Windows and Spectral Density Estimates Preparing the Data for Analysis Results when no Periodicity in the Series Exists Fast Fourier Transformations General Introduction Computation of FFT in Tim
Seasonal Adjustment: Basic Ideas and Terms The Census II Method Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Specific Description of all Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Distributed Lags Analysis General Purpose General Model Almon Distributed Lag Single Spectrum (Fourier) Analysis Cross-spectrum Analysis General Introduction Basic Notation and Principles Results for Each Variable The Cross-periodogram, Cross-density, Quadrature - density, and Cross-amplitude Squared Coherency, Gain, and Phase Shift How the Example Data were Created Spectrum Analysis — Basic Notations and Principles Frequency and Period The General Structural Model A Simple Example Periodogram The Problem of Leakage Padding the Time Series Tapering Data Windows and Spectral Density Estimates Preparing the Data for Analysis Results when no Periodicity
in the Series Exists Fast Fourier Transformations General Introduction Computation of FFT
in Time Series
Not to just change the subject from your important point, but the paper Zeke references makes clear that there is a strong
seasonal fluctuation of about 0.4 degF
in the differences between LIG and MMTS sensors that the idea of using one
adjustment for all season would be wrong.
Before
seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.1 percent month - over-month
in October.
Michelle Dickens CEO of TPN says that, «hopefully this indicates the shock drop to 82.17 %
in Quarter 1 (Q1) was merely a
seasonal adjustment.
«Sales of existing homes fell
in December and January after
seasonal adjustment and are now as low as any month
in 2017.
This process is expected to take some time before finalized revisions can be published to address any issues that may surface
in the review process and to update monthly
seasonal adjustment factors; NAR is committed to providing accurate, reliable data.
On a monthly basis and after
seasonal adjustment, the national Index, along with the 10 - City and 20 - City Composites, all increased 0.9 % month - over-month
in November.
Additionally, 10 of 20 cities reported increases
in December before
seasonal adjustment; after
seasonal adjustment, 19 cities increased for the month.
*
Seasonal adjustment removes normal seasonal variations, enabling analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends in t
Seasonal adjustment removes normal
seasonal variations, enabling analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends in t
seasonal variations, enabling analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends
in the data.