Blanchard - Wrigglesworth, E., R. I. Cullather, W. Wang, J. Zhang, and C. M. Bitz, Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions
in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook, Geophys.
For example, reductions
in seasonal sea ice cover and higher surface temperatures may open up new habitat in polar regions for some important fish species, such as cod, herring, and pollock.128 However, continued presence of cold bottom - water temperatures on the Alaskan continental shelf could limit northward migration into the northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea off northwestern Alaska.129, 130 In addition, warming may cause reductions in the abundance of some species, such as pollock, in their current ranges in the Bering Sea131and reduce the health of juvenile sockeye salmon, potentially resulting in decreased overwinter survival.132 If ocean warming continues, it is unlikely that current fishing pressure on pollock can be sustained.133 Higher temperatures are also likely to increase the frequency of early Chinook salmon migrations, making management of the fishery by multiple user groups more challenging.134
Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions
in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook.
The eastern Barents Sea (located in Russian territory), as defined by the Polar Bear Specialist Group (see map below), provides ample habitat for polar bears to thrive despite extended fluctuations
in seasonal sea ice cover in the western portion.
Not exact matches
Polar bears, the poster - child for climate change, are among the animals most affected by the
seasonal and year - to - year changes
in Arctic
sea ice, because they rely on this surface for essential activities such as hunting, traveling and breeding.
For 57 days
in January and February 2010, the Palmer plowed along the peninsula toward Scar Inlet, ramming through
seasonal sea ice up to two meters thick.
Every year Aleksey Marchenko of The University Center
in Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago north of Scandinavia, leads students across the chilly waters of the Barents
Sea to study the
seasonal ice pack.
Ice - covered sea areas in the Arctic Ocean during summer have nearly halved since the 1970s and 1980s, raising alarm that the ocean is shifting from a multiyear to a seasonal ice zo
Ice - covered
sea areas
in the Arctic Ocean during summer have nearly halved since the 1970s and 1980s, raising alarm that the ocean is shifting from a multiyear to a
seasonal ice zo
ice zone.
«This study was the first to quantitatively elucidate that
ice - ocean albedo feedback is a primary driver of
seasonal and yearly variations
in Arctic
sea ice retreat,» says Kay I. Ohshima.
A big «hole» appeared
in August
in the
ice pack
in the Beaufort and Chukchi
seas, north of Alaska, when thinner
seasonal ice surrounded by thicker, older
ice melted.
The research is timely given the extreme winter of 2017 - 2018, including record warm Arctic and low
sea ice, record - breaking polar vortex disruption, record - breaking cold and disruptive snowfalls
in the United States and Europe, severe «bomb cyclones» and costly nor'easter s, said Judah Cohen, director of
seasonal forecasting at AER and lead author of the study.
The
ice floating on top of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding
seas shrinks
in a
seasonal cycle from mid-March until mid-September.
But «while the Arctic maximum is not as important as the
seasonal minimum, the long - term decline is a clear indicator of climate change,» Walt Meier, a
sea ice researcher at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, said
in a statement.
«The combined
sea ice data suggest that the
seasonal Arctic
sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of
ice free summers
in the central Arctic Ocean.
We were particularly interested
in the nature of this relationship because of the hypothesized
seasonal movement of krill to inshore waters around the Antarctic Peninsula
in winter, rapid changes
in the climate and
sea ice patterns of the Antarctic peninsula [15], [16] and the known relationships between baleen whales and krill.
The
seasonal atmospheric response to projected
sea ice loss
in the late twenty - first century.
Seasonal atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic
sea ice in an ensemble of coupled model simulations.
The extent of Arctic
sea ice reached the maximum area of its
seasonal cycle on March 7th coming
in at 14.42 million km2.
Continuous annually layered strata provide the best kind of geological archive
in which to search for a «golden spike» — these form on the floors of oxygen - starved
seas and lakes,
in glacial
ice, and
in corals and trees with
seasonal growth rings
Anthony, R., Aster, R., Rowe, C., Wiens, D., Effects of
seasonal and secular changes
in Antarctic
sea ice on microseismic noise, Eos Trans.
Judah Cohen, a climate forecaster at Atmospheric and Environmental Research
in Massachusetts, who issues
seasonal snowfall forecasts several months
in advance for his company's clients, said the relationship between
sea ice loss and the Arctic Oscillation is a key area for future research to focus on.
For example, few data are available for the polar winter, and it is not known whether aragonite - undersaturated areas decrease
in size with the
seasonal freezing of
sea ice.
Locally, declining
sea ice is affecting the feeding and migration patterns of polar bears, whales, walrus and seals, and the people who live
in the Arctic and rely on
seasonal ice for their livelihoods.
Multi-panel paintings
in oil and smaller paintings on canvas and aluminum formats explore the tundra fragmented into puddles and bits of
ice with small cascades flowing over the rocks, reminders of accelerated
seasonal changes melting
ice fields and
sea ice.
The first question is, is there
seasonal sea ice still at the Pole
in 2050?
PIOMAS has been run
in a forward mode (and hence without data assimilation) to yield
seasonal predictions for the
sea ice outlook (Zhang et al. 2008) and has also provided input to statistical forecasts (Lindsay et al. 2008) and fully - coupled models.
If polar bears have been around for few hundred thousand years they have experienced a variety of environmental changes
in the Arctic, including periods when there was more
sea ice than present as well as periods when
seasonal sea ice was considerably less than at present.
However if we have a similar profile of volume loss as
in the preceding two years then random variability looks very unlikely and I'll be veering to the following viewpoint — that something new and radical has happened
in the
seasonal cycle of
sea -
ice loss, a new factor that
in principle could have the power to make a virtually
sea ice free state
in September plausible this decade.
If my guesstimates are anywhere near close, and I did the math right, the increase
in seasonal min to max
sea ice should have increased the thermohaline circulation by ~ 1Sv (as an annual average — the flow should follow the freeze up, only occuring
in the fall).
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically
in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase
in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes
in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released
in the cold part of the year when
ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the
seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight
in the winter would not be so delayed).
These result
in westerly winds (clockwise around the pole as viewed from below) just above the edge of Antarctica
in the region where the
seasonal sea ice forms, ie, the west wind drift:
In both cases we're talking about seasonal sea ice floating in a thin layer on the sea, next to cold and ice - covered lan
In both cases we're talking about
seasonal sea ice floating
in a thin layer on the sea, next to cold and ice - covered lan
in a thin layer on the
sea, next to cold and
ice - covered land.
A few stay on the
ice all year round, but southerly populations survive ashore
in the summer, and it is the
seasonal winter feast upon seals and other
sea mammals that gives them the nourishment to make it to the next breeding season.
In both the Arctic and the Antarctic «natural causes» (the seasons) are responsible for the seasonal decrease / increase in sea ice extent, which are, of course, much larger than the average annual chang
In both the Arctic and the Antarctic «natural causes» (the seasons) are responsible for the
seasonal decrease / increase
in sea ice extent, which are, of course, much larger than the average annual chang
in sea ice extent, which are, of course, much larger than the average annual change.
Seasonal sea ice changes in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, over the period of 1979 - 20
sea ice changes
in the Amundsen
Sea, Antarctica, over the period of 1979 - 20
Sea, Antarctica, over the period of 1979 - 2014.
As we near the final month of summer
in the Northern Hemisphere, NASA scientists are watching the annual
seasonal melting of the Arctic
sea ice cover.
An overall warming
in the 2 × CO2 experiment causes reduction of
sea -
ice extent by 15 %, with maximum decrease
in summer and autumn, consistent with observed
seasonal sea -
ice changes.
Variability, trends, and predictability of
seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi S
sea ice retreat and advance
in the Chukchi
SeaSea.
for article Corrigendum: The
seasonal sea -
ice zone
in the glacial Southern Ocean as a carbon sink.
for article The
seasonal sea -
ice zone
in the glacial Southern Ocean as a carbon sink.
Given the apparent importance of the MDCs
in determining the
seasonal and interannual variations
in sea ice extent, it is very difficult to discriminate a global warming signal from the data because of the short data record.
«The combined
sea ice data suggest that the
seasonal Arctic
sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of
ice free summers
in the central Arctic Ocean.»
Evidence suggests that the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was driven
in part by warm air (air warmed by the dramatic
seasonal loss of Arctic
sea ice) 9 as well as by changes
in snow cover over Eurasia driven by climate change.10 This event is part of an emerging trend
in which a warming climate may paradoxically bring colder, snowier winters to northern Europe and the eastern United States.11
Improvements
in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty
in forecast verification, and
sea -
ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available
in real time.
Sea ice formation
in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen
seas has decreased by 10 % per decade and has also shortened
in seasonal length [40].
Lukovich et al. (Centre for Earth Observation Science, U. of Manitoba); 4.6; Heuristic - Dynamics Investigation of dynamical atmospheric contributions
in spring to
sea ice conditions
in fall, based on comparison of 2011 and 2007 stratospheric and surface winds and
sea level pressure (SLP)
in April and May suggests regional differences
in sea ice extent
in fall,
in a manner consistent with recent studies highlighting the importance of coastal geometry
in seasonal interpretations of
sea ice cover (Eisenman, 2010).
With regards to
seasonal sea ice forecasting, it is too far away from my current research topics, for now I will just comment, but it is something I might take on
in the next year or two.
While the Greenland
Sea is dominated by
ice export from the Arctic Ocean, the Barents
Sea is mostly
seasonal ice formed
in situ.
It looks like the Arctic
sea ice is close to reaching its
seasonal minimum, reflecting a substantial increase
in sea ice relative to the record breaking minimum
in 2012.
In any event, the seasonal predictability of ENSO starting in June provides some regional predictability of sea ice variation
In any event, the
seasonal predictability of ENSO starting
in June provides some regional predictability of sea ice variation
in June provides some regional predictability of
sea ice variations.