But matters are greatly complicated by atmospheric circulation patterns, cyclic changes
in temperatures over the oceans, and the shapes of land masses.
Not exact matches
While this is bad news for the planet, it's good news for climate change scientists who have — for the last two decades — puzzled
over warming trends
in ocean surface
temperatures for nearly 20 years.
Bacteria thrive virtually everywhere on Earth — from sub-zero
temperatures to
over 750 degrees F (
in hydrothermal vents at the bottom of the
ocean), and
in widely varying oxygen, pressure and nutrient conditions.
The other global flu pandemics
over the past century —
in 1957, 1968 and 2009 — also followed cooler sea surface
temperatures in the Pacific
Ocean.
Comparing layers
in the ice - core samples and
ocean sediments has allowed researchers to deduce e.g. how the average
temperature on Earth has changed
over time, and also how great the variability was.
The exceptional strengthening of a high - pressure area
in Siberia, which brought freezing
temperatures to Finland
in late February and early March, may be partly the result of atmospheric warming
over the Arctic
Ocean.
«Mars for example is
in the sun's habitable zone, but it has no
oceans — causing air
temperatures to swing
over a range of 100OC.
Analyzing data collected
over a 20 - month period, scientists from NASA's Goddard Space Flight center
in Greenbelt, Md., and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that the number of cirrus clouds above the Pacific
Ocean declines with warmer sea surface
temperatures.
Ranging from the magnesium levels
in microscopic seashells pulled from
ocean sediment cores to pollen counts
in layers of muck from lakebeds, the proxies delivered thousands of
temperature readings
over the period.
According to NOAA scientists, the globally averaged
temperature over land and
ocean surfaces for August 2014 was the highest for August since record keeping began
in 1880.
Over the past 60 years, winter
temperatures in the northwestern part of the peninsula have soared by 11 degrees F. Year - round
temperatures have risen by 5 degrees F and the surrounding
ocean is warming.
El Niño thus leaves its mark on the Quelccaya ice cap as a chemical signature (especially
in oxygen isotopes) indicating sea surface
temperatures in the equatorial Pacific
Ocean over much of the past 1,800 years.
Another principal investigator for the project, Laura Pan, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research
in Boulder, Colo., believes storm clusters
over this area of the Pacific are likely to influence climate
in new ways, especially as the warm
ocean temperatures (which feed the storms and chimney) continue to heat up and atmospheric patterns continue to evolve.
The AMO,
in which
temperatures over a large swath of the northern Atlantic
Ocean fluctuate between warm and cold phases on a 50 - to 70 - year cycle, is one example.
«This means clumps of atoms surrounded by a bath at some
temperature, like the atmosphere or the
ocean, should tend
over time to arrange themselves to resonate better and better with the sources of mechanical, electromagnetic or chemical work
in their environments,» England explained.
El Niño is a weather pattern characterized by a periodic fluctuation
in sea surface
temperature and air pressure
in the Pacific
Ocean, which causes climate variability
over the course of years, sometimes even decades.
The Gulf Stream, an
ocean current that brings warm water from the equator toward the North Atlantic, has been credited with this observed variation
in temperature for
over a century.
Compared to seasonal norms, the coldest place
in Earth's atmosphere
in May was
over the northern Pacific
Ocean, where
temperatures were as much as 2.08 C (about 3.74 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms.
So DNA from buried sediments could be used to track the abundance of different species
over time, revealing changes
in ocean temperature.
The effects of wind changes, which were found to potentially increase
temperatures in the Southern
Ocean between 660 feet and 2,300 feet below the surface by 2 °C, or nearly 3.6 °F, are over and above the ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse g
Ocean between 660 feet and 2,300 feet below the surface by 2 °C, or nearly 3.6 °F, are
over and above the
ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse g
ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse gases.
Prior to World War II, the most common way to measure
ocean temperatures was dropping a bucket
over the side of a ship and scooping up some seawater and dunking a thermometer
in.
So if cyanobacteria are shaping the
temperature of their growing patch of the
ocean to favor themselves
over cold - water critters, researchers want to know how they are doing it and what to expect next, says climate scientist Sebastian Sonntag of the University of Hamburg
in Germany.
But
ocean temperatures alone don't define an El Niño; CPC forecasters also look for the corresponding shifts
in atmospheric patterns, namely a weakening of the typical east - to - west trade winds
over the region.
Here we show that variation
in phytoplankton
temperature optima
over 150 degrees of latitude is well explained by a gradient
in mean
ocean temperature.
Changes
in the
temperature of the sea surface
in the Indian and Atlantic
Oceans are linked to the pattern of rainfall
over parts of the surrounding continents.
Temperatures in the upper 700 meters of the
ocean rose
over the last two decades of the 20th century before flattening out
in 2003.
Note that we've got a paper soon to come out
in «The Cryosphere» (and we'll have a poster at AGU) looking at recent «Arctic Amplification» that you discuss (the stronger rise
in surface air
temperatures over the Arctic
Ocean compared to lower latitudes).
Additionally, the paper supports the theory that heat storage
in the deep
ocean may be partly responsible for the parallel pause
in Earth's surface
temperatures over the past 13 years.
Upper
ocean temperatures have warmed significantly
in most regions of the world
over recent decades, with anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing very likely being the main contributor21.
However, for the globe as a whole, surface air
temperatures over land have risen at about double the
ocean rate after 1979 (more than 0.27 °C per decade vs. 0.13 °C per decade), with the greatest warming during winter (December to February) and spring (March to May)
in the Northern Hemisphere.
The most important bias globally was the modification
in measured sea surface
temperatures associated with the change from ships throwing a bucket
over the side, bringing some
ocean water on deck, and putting a thermometer
in it, to reading the thermometer
in the engine coolant water intake.
Surface specific humidity has generally increased after 1976
in close association with higher
temperatures over both land and
ocean.
It's the
ocean «These small global
temperature increases of the last 25 years and
over the last century are likely natural changes that the globe has seen many times
in the past.
The westerlies
in the Northern Hemisphere, which increased from the 1960s to the 1990s but which have since returned to about normal as part of NAO and NAM changes, alter the flow from
oceans to continents and are a major cause of the observed changes
in winter storm tracks and related patterns of precipitation and
temperature anomalies, especially
over Europe.
The observed and projected rates of increase
in freshwater runoff could potentially disrupt
ocean circulation if global
temperatures rise by 3 to 4 °C
over this century as forecast by the IPCC 2001 report.
Shifts
in internal
temperature variability, measured through SST variance and skewness, are also occurring and contribute to much of the MHW trends observed
over the remainder of the global
ocean, particularly for MHW duration and intensity.
Warming has occurred
in both land and
ocean domains, and
in both sea surface
temperature (SST) and nighttime marine air
temperature over the
oceans.
Global mean
temperatures averaged
over land and
ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates
over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase
in recent decades.
Severinghaus discovered that xenon and krypton are well preserved
in ice cores, which provides the
temperature information that can then be used by scientists studying many other aspects of the earth's
oceans and atmosphere
over hundreds of thousands of years.
«The surge
in global
temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift
in the Pacific
Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were
over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely» says corresponding author de Freitas.
In March, 2018, lower tropospheric
temperatures (1500m)
over the
oceans (71 % of the earth's surface) also saw a further drop:
The globally averaged
temperature over land and
ocean surfaces for 2015 was the highest among all years since record keeping began
in 1880.
This winter, that warmth reached astounding levels, with air
temperatures over the Arctic
Ocean ranging from 4 °F to 11 °F (2 °C to 6 °C) above average
in nearly every region.
That's a time when, Hansen says, differences
in ocean temperatures led to the formation of giant waves that swept boulders weighing
over a thousand tons high up on Caribbean islands.
Climate scientists would say
in response that changes
in ocean circulation can't sustain a net change
in global
temperature over such a long period (ENSO for example might raise or lower global
temperature on a timescale of one or two years, but
over decades there would be roughly zero net change).
To the extent that these are controlled by
ocean temperatures they are likely to be related to differential changes
in ocean temperature and not simply local absolute
temperatures over the tropical Atlantic.
Because of their effect on lowering the
temperature gradient of the cool skin layer, increased levels of greenhouse gases lead to more heat being stored
in the
oceans over the long - term.
Cooling sea - surface
temperatures over the tropical Pacific
Ocean — part of a natural warm and cold cycle — may explain why global average
temperatures have stabilized
in recent years, even as greenhouse gas emissions have been warming the planet.
In any year,
temperatures around the world can be nudged up or down by short - term factors like volcanic eruptions or El Ninos, when warm water spreads
over much of the tropical Pacific
Ocean.
Modelling experiments suggest that this kind of decrease should be associated with a decrease
in ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic of up to 2 °C or so, and maybe 0.5 °
over Europe.