Imagine how whalers and hunters and those actually living in the Arctic environment can relate to the politics of science that exist
in the global warming argument.
Their report suggests that a central plank
in the global warming argument — that it will result in a big increase in deaths from weather - related disasters — is undermined by the facts.
If the author is already peddling denialism based on limited facts used out of context, and this new paper is published likely just to be used as the latest red herring distraction
in the global warming argument by examining «Svalbard and Greenland temperature records» in a too limited time span without relevant context, which, just in case some may not have noticed does not represent the region known as planet Earth, uses too short a time span in relation to mechanism outside of the examined region because it is in fact a regional analysis; one is left with a reasonable conclusion that the paper is designed to be precisely what I suspect it is designed for, to be a red herring distraction in the argument between science and science denialism regarding global warming.
The parallel sources to
these in the global warming argument are the 19,000 scientists who signed the OISM petition that human expulsion of CO2 is not harmful.
Not exact matches
Slate's Science Editor, Susan Matthews,
in «Alarmism Is the
Argument We Need to Fight Climate Change» said the «
global -
warming horror story isn't too scary.
The finding challenges previous
arguments that a hot spot north of Cape Hatteras over the past few decades was due to a slowdown of circulation
in the North Atlantic, which is itself due to
global warming.
In «Consilience and Consensus» [Skeptic], Michael Shermer's
arguments demonstrate how deniers of anthropogenic
global warming (AGW) are wrong.
J. Alan Pounds, a biologist at the Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve and one of the researchers who originally put forward the
argument that
global warming played a role
in the extinction of the golden toad, disagrees with the paper's conclusions.
I think the
argument is that
global warming will result
in more extremes.
Themes: Aerosols, Arctic and Antarctic climate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events,
Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian
arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate
in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellaneous.
The reconstruction produced by Dr. Mann and his colleagues was just one step
in a long process of research, and it is not (as sometimes presented) a clinching
argument for anthropogenic
global warming, but rather one of many independent lines of research on
global climate change.
The
arguments surrounding
global warming have become so polarised that
in my opinion there is no longer a genuine attempt to get to the truth through orignial research, but simply a process of point scoring by either side going on.
The results lead the authors to conclude that «this experimental data should effectively end the
argument by skeptics that no experimental evidence exists for the connection between greenhouse gas increases
in the atmosphere and
global warming.»
In some of these cases, the
argument is as broad and non-specific as
global warming.
[Response: For the record, I think any reasonably educated person, whether with a technical degree or not, should be able to understand and critically evaluate the basic
arguments involved
in predictions of
global warming.
I don't reject the belief that increased CO2 levels result
in global warming, only that the long - term environmental
arguments are weaker than the short - term economic ones.
Numerous denier
arguments involving slight fluctuations
in the
global distribution of
warmer vs cooler sea surface areas as supposed explanations of climate change neglect all the energy that goes into ocean heat content, melting large ice deposits and so forth.
You don't need to buy into the
global warming argument to know that we very often engage
in activities that destroy the environment.
The fundamental flaw
in almost all the denial
arguments I've seen is that they start from the premise that
global warming isn't happening therefore the best model is the past.
But President Bush's announcement Wednesday of a plan to halt growth
in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, while not embracing all the enviro groups want, legitimizes their
argument that
global warming is caused by humans and an imminent threat to mankind.
Often, the
argument forwarded by some folks is,
in essence, that since the climate naturally fluctuates to a degree,
global warming is inevitable and we should just live with it and not bother to change the status quo (and certainly not
in a way that discomforts those who conveniently hold this view!).
[Response of the author: And usually they tell us Germans we're too serious... But seriously: as a scientist, and perhaps from my European perspective, I have trouble taking certain discussions and
arguments seriously, and Crichton's
argument that the planet isn't really
warming, and that climatologists have basically made this up
in a
global conspiracy to get more research funding, is clearly one of those.
We will at some point post something on the climate / hurricane
arguments, but a basic fact is that there is a huge difference between claiming that
global warming trends will tend, statistically, to lead to more / larger hurricanes, and attributing specific events
in specific years to such causes.
But frankly people are seizing on anecdotes for climate change
in the solar system that would rightly be derided if I was to use analogous
arguments on Earth (i.e.
global warming is happening because of a big storm, or that a single glacier was melting).
Global warming was a convenient persuasive
argument in support of what had to take place.
Here are some possible choices —
in order of increasing sophistication: * All (or most) scientists agree (the principal Gore
argument) * The 20th century is the
warmest in 1000 years (the «hockeystick»
argument) * Glaciers are melting, sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are
in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century
global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agree
As far as I remember, she discusses the MWP only
in the context of Europe which doesn't contribute to the
argument concerning the
global extent of the
warming.
It's been remarkable to see the lengthening line of Republican politicians, particularly presidential hopefuls, chiding Pope Francis for pressing the case for action to stem
global warming given how much conservatives have stressed values - based
arguments on important issues
in the past.
But I posted a comment on the importance of considering the moral
arguments for action on
global warming in the context of the many other moral questions surrounding human development.
A valuable short paper that has been accepted for publication
in Geophysical Research Letters (subscription required) makes a strong case against presenting any
argument about human - driven
global warming that's based on short - term trends (a decade or so).
In fact, I was by default not doubting the
global warming classic interpretation till I started reading multiple sources on the net, and as my self - confession as a recent skeptic shows, the
argument from the denialist camp are not only convincing to petrol gulping rednecks, but also to a very scientifically minded, atheist european (although, I must admit, I like motor sports; — RRB --RRB-.
This seems
in disagreement with the
argument in CaltechWater.pdf (and surely elsewhere) that with
global warming prcipitation ought to increase.
As various
arguments for action on
global warming have failed to blunt growth
in emissions
in recent years, environmental groups and international agencies have sometimes tried to turn the focus to diseases that could pose a growing threat
in a
warming world — with malaria being a frequent talking point.
A counterpoint to this
argument is exemplified by Gerald Marsh
in his «
Global Warming Primer» (www.nationalcenter.org/NPA420.pdf) where he claims...» additional carbon dioxide does have an influence at the edges of the 14.99 micron band.
Died -
in - the - wool believers
in global warming will argue that coal will produce CO2 and contribute to
global warming but the following two points will undermine their
arguments without challenging the AGW hypothesis.
He has now greatly expanded on his critique of their
argument in «Why
Global Warming Skeptics Are Wrong,» an essay
in the New York Review of Books (hat tip to Climate Progress).
However, after listening to the compelling
arguments of the distinguished speakers who participated
in the Heartland Institute's recent
global warming contrarian conference, we have decided that the science is settled —
in favor of the contrarians.
In short
Global Warming is akin to a circular
argument that can be won by whoever is doing the science.
(Indeed, as The Economist points out
in making this
argument, the investment required to curb
global warming is less than the world spends on insurance every year).
With or without
global warming, there's a solid
argument that improved understanding of planetary dynamics, particularly the climate system, is essential to sustaining human progress given how risks rise as populations expand, build, farm and concentrate
in zones that are implicitly vulnerable to hard knocks like floods, droughts, heat and severe storms.
But, as I wrote
in a comment on that post, «It's important not to conclude that moral
arguments for action on
global warming, even conveyed by a pope, are a world - changing breakthrough.
Long - time greens are painfully aware that the
arguments of
global warming skeptics are like zombies
in a»70s B movie.
«this experimental data should effectively end the
argument by skeptics that no experimental evidence exists for the connection between greenhouse gas increases
in the atmosphere and
global warming.».
Or is Paul defending against the charge by making a numbers
argument — the scientists
in question are on the same side as the consensus, so to challenge any aspect of
global warming science or politics is to make a statement about «the majority of scientists» (many of whom are
in fact social scientists)?
In fact, many
global warming advacates have made this precise
argument.
The results lead the authors to conclude that * *** «this experimental data should effectively end the
argument by skeptics that no experimental evidence exists for the connection between greenhouse gas increases
in the atmosphere and Climate Changes caused by
global warming.».
The
argument is whether us humans have super-imposed our excessive carbon dioxide emissions upon the existing natural balance of the climate system — thereby altering it's natural chemistry leading to possible dangerous
global warming at some point
in the near and distant future.
In any case, as one of those rare contrarian climate scientists, Spencer is in a good position to present the best arguments against the global warming consensu
In any case, as one of those rare contrarian climate scientists, Spencer is
in a good position to present the best arguments against the global warming consensu
in a good position to present the best
arguments against the
global warming consensus.
While such a «missing heat» explanation for a lack of recent
warming [i.e., Trenberth's
argument that just can not find it yet] is theoretically possible, I find it rather unsatisfying basing an unwavering belief
in eventual catastrophic
global warming on a deep - ocean mechanism so weak we can't even measure it [i.e., the coldest deep ocean waters are actually
warmer than they should be by thousandths of a degree]...
Further, he makes the classic logical error of «begging the question» or assuming the proposition as part of the «proof» when he says Given that
global warming is «unequivocal», and is «very likely» due to human activities to quote the 2007 IPCC report,
in addition to the obvious
argument from authority.