Extremes
in observable
conditions that we associate with some of the worst moments
in history to invest include: Aug 1929 (with the October crash within 10 weeks of that instance), Aug - Oct 1972 (with an immediate retreat of less than 4 %, followed a few months later by the start of a 50 % bear
market collapse), Aug 1987 (with the October crash within 10 weeks), July 1999 (associated with a quick 10 %
market plunge within 10 weeks), another signal
in March 2000 (with a 10 % loss within 10 weeks, a recovery into September of that year, and then a 50 %
market collapse), July - Oct 2007 (followed by an immediate plunge of about 10 %
in July, a recovery into October, and another signal that marked the
market peak and the beginning of a 55 %
market loss), two earlier signals
in the recent half - cycle, one
in July - early Oct of 2013 and another
in Nov 2013 - Mar 2014, both associated with
sideways market consolidations, and the present extreme.
Since then, the broad
market has essentially gone
sideways, though capitalization - weighted indices such as the S&P 500 have recently clawed to new highs on enthusiasm about negative interest rates abroad (which I believe actually reflect fresh deterioration
in global economic
conditions across Britain, Europe, Japan, and China).