The most natural way to determine whether global warming is altering tornado patterns is to look for changes
in tornado statistics and then see whether climate models can explain those changes.
Not exact matches
«The fact that we don't see the presently understood meteorological signature of global warming
in changing outbreak
statistics leaves two possibilities: either the recent increases are not due to a warming climate, or a warming climate has implications for
tornado activity that we don't understand.
But, of course, the
tornado environments on Jan. 1 and Dec. 31 are very much related, and circular
statistics allows researchers to capture how such relationships wrap back on themselves, as
in a circle.
«What's pushing this rise
in extreme outbreaks, during which the vast majority of
tornado - related fatalities occur, is far from obvious
in the present state of climate science,» said Cohen, the Abby Rockefeller Mauzé Professor at Rockefeller University and Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, who conducted the research while a visiting scholar
in UChicago's Department of
Statistics.
The effect is not measurable owing to the nature of
tornado statistics which mainly reflect increasing numbers of people
in more places.
Harold Brooks, a expert on
tornado science and
statistics at the National Severe Storms Laboratory
in Norman, Okla, told me why communities
in Tornado Alley shouldn't necessarily rip up all schools and sprout domes or other reinforced structures:
1)
Statistics on
tornadoes are unreliable and exhibit spurious upward trends that are known to correspond to more people being
in more places to see them.
«It is well known that strong to violent
tornado activity
in the US has decreased markedly since
statistics began
in the 1950s, which has also been a period of average warming.