When nitrogen isotopes change in response to variation
in winter precipitation over the past 2,000 years, this signature is transferred from the soil to plant leaves to insect to bat and ultimately guano.
1) Streamflow has risen 18 % in Newhalem Creek and 19 % in Thunder Creek despite only a slight increase, 2 %
in winter precipitation at Diablo Dam, within 5 km of both basins.
Most studies agree that general declines in snowpack across the West have resulted from warming spring temperatures (Mote 2003; Hamlet et al. 2005; Mote et al. 2005; Abatzoglou 2011; Kapnick and Hall 2012; Pederson et al. 2013a; Lute et al. 2015); however,
declines in winter precipitation may also be important (Clow 2010).
There is a noticeable change
in winter precipitation with winter rainfall increasing through the 19th Century portion of the record, then remaining largely constant through the 20th Century despite a rise and fall in the first half.
, as more frequent rain on snow events enhance melting and reduce snow storage Streamflow has risen 18 % in Newhalem Creek and 19 % in Thunder Creek despite only a slight decrease, 1 %
in winter precipitation at Diablo Dam, within 5 km of both basins.
The subsequent sections provide detailed information on the study area, the development of the modified runoff model, the method we used to simulate variability
in winter precipitation, the 4FRI runoff scenarios, and the Salt - Verde runoff scenarios.
Inter-annual variability
in winter precipitation was also important.
Modifying a historical runoff model, we constructed scenarios to estimate increases in runoff from thinning ponderosa pine at the landscape and watershed scales based on driving variables: pace, extent and intensity of forest treatments and variability
in winter precipitation.
The large interannual to decadal hydroclimatic variability
in winter precipitation is highly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and associated changes in large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns [16].
For the 2050s, the range of projected change in the Capital Regional District (CRD) is +1.3 °C to +2.6 °C in summer, +0.8 °C to +2.4 °C in winter, -5 % to +17 %
in winter precipitation, and -30 % to +1 % in summer precipitation.
For the 2050s, the range of projected change in Metro Vancouver is +1.4 °C to +2.8 °C in summer, +0.8 °C to +2.7 °C in winter, -5 % to +16 %
in winter precipitation, and -25 % to +5 % in summer precipitation.