Consider the facts: the climate system is indicated to have left the natural cycle path; multiple lines of evidence and studies from different fields all point to the human fingerprint on current climate change; the convergence of these evidence lines
include ice mass loss, pattern changes, ocean acidification, plant and species migration, isotopic signature of CO2, changes in atmospheric composition, and many others.
Not exact matches
The reconstructed curve
includes isolated rapid events of several decimetres within a few centuries, one of which is most likely related to
loss from the Antarctic
ice sheet
mass around 5000 years before present.
The Greenland, and possibly the Antarctic,
ice sheets have been losing
mass recently, because
losses by ablation
including outlet glaciers exceed accumulation of snowfall.
The estimated 2010 or 2011 surface
mass imbalance (~ 300 Gt / yr) is comparable to the GRACE estimates of the total
mass loss (which
includes ice loss via dynamic effects such as the speeding up of outlet glaciers) of 248 ± 43 Gt / yr for the years 2005 - 2009 Chen et al, 2011.
al) suggest radiative
loss to space, but they also
include references relating to warming bottom water, deepening tropical gyre warm bowls, and increased
mass loss from the Antarctic and Geenland
ice sheets.
The contribution from glaciers and
ice caps (not
including Greenland and Antarctica), on the other hand, is computed from a simple empirical formula linking global mean temperature to
mass loss (equivalent to a rate of sea level rise), based on observed data from 1963 to 2003.
But again the «models» estimate
includes an observed
ice sheet
mass loss term of 0.41 mm / year whereas
ice sheet models give a
mass gain of 0.1 mm / year for this period; considering this, observed rise is again 50 % faster than the best model estimate for this period.
One has to delve deeply into the appendix of Chapter 11 of the TAR to find out what these extra 18 cm entail: they
include a «
mass balance uncertainty» and an «
ice dynamic uncertainty», where the latter is simply assumed to be 10 % of the total computed
mass loss of the Greenland
ice sheet.
Losses from surface melting, water runoff, the breakup of glaciers into the ocean (calving), and the transformation of solid
ice into water vapor (sublimation) exceed any gains through snowfall.2, 3,4,5 The Greenland
ice sheet loses most of its
mass on the perimeter, through a dozen fast - moving glaciers,
including Helheim.5, 6
Warming in the oceans hasn't slowed, and other impacts have accelerated —
including Arctic
ice melt,
mass loss in
ice sheets and glaciers, and a dramatic increase in heat waves around the world.
Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current
mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with
mass loss in the GRACE period 2002 - 15 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT / yr for Greenland (
including peripheral
ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT / year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 mm / year and 0.26 mm / year average global sea level change.