Not exact matches
We've narrowed the
uncertainty in surface warming projections by generating thousands of climate simulations that each closely match
observational records for nine key climate metrics,
including warming and ocean heat content.»
What is missing is the more quantitative information on aerosol radiative properties, geographical distributions, trends, and
observational results (
including uncertainties) that can be found in the IPCC AR4 Report.
Even worse: to numbers with error estimates, it adds a number without proper error estimate (the
observational uncertainty for 1993 - 2003 is
included, but who would claim this is an error estimation for future ice flow changes?).
Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research
include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for
observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea - ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.
In the long term, the PAGES 2k community recommends the continued development of methods that incorporate network,
observational, and chronological
uncertainty into quantitative estimates of past climate variability,
including approaches that allow for quantitative calibration and validation of low - frequency variability.
But the
observational estimate
uncertainty includes measurement and related errors that are not present in the model estimate
uncertainty (although these appear to be relatively unimportant in this case), while only the model estimates sample decadal / multidecadal climate system internal variability, which very possibly affects the TLC reflection — SST relationship.