[The paper was] the first proper computation of global warming and stratospheric cooling from enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations,
including atmospheric emission and water - vapour feedback.
In other words, the bottom graph (b) of surface looking up, can reasonably be presumed to be downward radiation from the atmosphere,
including atmospheric emissions, reflections, or scatterings.
Not exact matches
The model also considered how reducing soot could impact other
atmospheric emissions,
including sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxide and organic carbon.
The work
included data from a variety of sources,
including national
emissions inventories kept by the United Nations, global estimates of energy use and direct measurements of
atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and involved dozens of authors from institutes around the world.
A recent trend in GCMs is to extend them to become Earth system models, that
include such things as submodels for
atmospheric chemistry or a carbon cycle model to better predict changes in carbon dioxide concentrations resulting from changes in
emissions.
Because this climate sensitivity is derived from empirical data on how Earth responded to past changes of boundary conditions,
including atmospheric composition, our conclusions about limits on fossil fuel
emissions can be regarded as largely independent of climate models.
Indeed, impacts of Arctic warming
include the melting of major Arctic glaciers and Greenland (containing the potential for up to 7 meters of sea level rise if it were to melt entirely), the thawing of carbon rich permafrost (which could add to the burden of
atmospheric greenhouse gas
emissions) and signs of worsening wildfires across the boreal forests of Alaska, to name a few.
Yet over the period 2020 - 2100 RCP2.6
includes 290Gt (C) of net CO2
emissions, a quantity which would raise
atmospheric CO2 levels by 62ppm if it had been released in recent decades, 53ppm above that expected for 2100.
If we multiply that over ten years, and figure that the top billion or so of world population is responsible for the lion's share (say 80 %) of the
emissions, could we then conclude that, on average, every member of that top billion (presumably
including all on this forum) had contributed the energy equivalent of one Hiroshima bomb (or more) toward
atmospheric global warming over the last decade?
2) They
include unrealistic projections for future CO2
emissions, and for future CO2
atmospheric concentrations.
Taking account of their historic responsibility, as well as the need to secure climate justice for the world's poorest and most vulnerable communities, developed countries must commit to legally binding and ambitious
emission reduction targets consistent with limiting global average surface warming to well below 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and long - term stabilization of
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at well below below 350 p.p.m., and that to achieve this the agreement at COP15 U.N.F.C.C.C. should
include a goal of peaking global
emissions by 2015 with a sharp decline thereafter towards a global reduction of 85 percent by 2050,
I'd like to think he's read our stories on such climate engineering options,
including one last year in our Energy Challenge series by Bill Broad (with some help from me) in which the president of the National Academy of Sciences, the
atmospheric chemist Ralph Cicerone, endorsed the need to aggressively study such options, even as the world works to limit
emissions.
The basic ingredients are easy to list: — absorption /
emission properties (or spectroscopic parameters) of CO2 at
atmospheric pressures, i.e. data presently available from HITRAN - database combined with models of line broadening — observed properties of the atmosphere where most important features
include clouds and moisture content, but many other factors have some influence — computer model of the transmission of radiation along the lines of MODTRAN or GENLN2
The processes of carbon release are intertwined with multiple factors,
including microbial community composition, stability of old carbon, physical soil structure, and relative fraction of leaching to
atmospheric emission.
Rob — I'm not sure why you think the human origin of post-industrial CO2 increases is a subject of much uncertainty, since the conclusion resides in the convergence of multiple lines of evidence that
include measurements of C14, C13, C12,
atmospheric oxygen, volcanic activity, and records of industrial
emissions.
When we adjust the TAR
emissions scenarios to
include an
atmospheric CO2 pathway that is based upon observed CO2 increases during the past 25 yr, we find a warming range of 1.5 — 2.6 °C prior to the adjustments for the new findings.
That strong action be taken at all levels,
including government, industry, and individuals to substantially reduce the current levels of greenhouse gas
emissions and to mitigate the likely social and environmental effects of increasing
atmospheric CO2.
The release of gas hydrates may still be stoppable through a suite of techniques
including withdrawing
atmospheric CO2 by rapidly building soil fertility on a global scale, reforestation to increase reflective cloud cover, and rapidly reducing CO2
emissions — in other words, a massive emergency campaign to cool the planet: Climate Code Red!
Since coming to PNNL, he has led or been significantly involved in studies of effects of surface heterogeneity on boundary layer structure, of mesoscale
atmospheric flows induced or modulated by complex terrain, of the simulation of dust
emission by wind erosion, and of the capabilities of a variety of
atmospheric instruments —
including a mass spectrometer and wind profiling radar — for measuring
atmospheric turbulence.
We are investigating the effects of long - term
emissions trends using a version of the GISS climate model that
includes atmospheric chemistry.
Every year the GCP provides an estimate of the global carbon budget, which estimates both the release and uptake of carbon
including emissions from fossil fuels and industry,
emissions from land - use changes, carbon taken up by the oceans and land, and changes in
atmospheric concentrations of CO2.
This study re-examines the available
atmospheric CO2 and
emissions data
including their uncertainties.
This vast
emission has spiked
atmospheric CO2 and CO2e (when all other heat trapping gasses are
included) levels to above 400 parts per million and 481 parts per million respectively.
• Approaches that account for the global dimensions of achieving and maintaining sustainable levels of
atmospheric CO2 and encourage cooperative action by all countries,
including the U.S. and large emitting nations in the developing world, to implement CO2
emission reduction strategies.
-- In the event that the Administrator or the National Academy of Sciences has concluded, in the most recent report submitted under section 705 or 706 respectively, that the United States will not achieve the necessary domestic greenhouse gas
emissions reductions, or that global actions will not maintain safe global average surface temperature and
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration thresholds, the President shall, not later than July 1, 2015, and every 4 years thereafter, submit to Congress a plan identifying domestic and international actions that will achieve necessary additional greenhouse gas reductions,
including any recommendations for legislative action.
«(3) an analysis of the status of worldwide greenhouse gas reduction efforts,
including implementation of the Safe Climate Act and other policies, both domestic and international, for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, preventing dangerous
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, preventing significant irreversible consequences of climate change, and reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.
Victor argues that policymakers should instead focus on a suite of «vital signs» that are more tightly linked to carbon
emissions,
including atmospheric carbon - dioxide concentrations, ocean heat content, and high - latitude temperature changes.
Are you aware that the United States is much more responsible for elevated
atmospheric ghg concentrations than any other country
including China because of US historical and per capita
emissions?
They
include: (1) a 35 year US delay on climate action has made the problem extraordinarily challenging to solve, (2) US greenhouse gas (ghg)
emissions are more than any country responsible for rise in
atmospheric concentrations to present dangerous levels, (3) US ghg
emissions not only threaten the US with climate disruption but endanger many of the poorest people around the world, (4) the Obama administration's pledge to reduce ghg
emissions is far short of the US fair share of safe global
emissions.
Policies which
include improving carbon storage by increasing vegetation and biodiversity, along with reduction in carbon
emissions, will help to balance global
atmospheric carbon.
Along this line there are several issues in particular about which greater awareness is needed
including greater public understanding of the ethical implications of any nation's ghg
emissions reduction commitment in regard to an
atmospheric stabilization goal the commitment is seeking to achieve and the coherence or lack there of the national commitment to an acceptable equity framework.
The reasons are several and
include: (a) Their
emissions levels are very high compared to others; (b) Huge reductions in
emissions from existing
emissions levels are necessary to achieve safe
atmospheric stabilization levels; and (c) Climate change damages to some people, not to mention plants, animals, and ecological systems, are already occurring.
Because this climate sensitivity is derived from empirical data on how Earth responded to past changes of boundary conditions,
including atmospheric composition, our conclusions about limits on fossil fuel
emissions can be regarded as largely independent of climate models.
The sources of uncertainty are many,
including the trajectory of greenhouse gas
emissions in the future, their conversion into
atmospheric concentrations, the range of responses of various climate models to a given radiative forcing and the method of constructing high resolution information from global climate model outputs (Pittock, 1995; see Figure 13.2).
When we adjust the TAR
emissions scenarios to
include an
atmospheric CO2 pathway that is based upon observed CO2 increases during the past 25 yr, we find a warming range of 1.5 - 2.6 °C prior to the adjustments for the new findings.
Some are described, with references, in the RC piece by Corrine Le Quere, but other data
include the quantitative bookkeeping from industrial
emissions records, as well as data on changing
atmospheric O2 and C14 levels.
This month, thousands of people from all over the world,
including many heads of state, will gather in Copenhagen to try to forge an agreement to drastically cut
atmospheric emissions of an invisible, odorless gas: carbon dioxide.
The physics that must be
included to investigate the moist greenhouse is principally: (i) accurate radiation incorporating the spectral variation of gaseous absorption in both the solar radiation and thermal
emission spectral regions, (ii)
atmospheric dynamics and convection with no specifications favouring artificial
atmospheric boundaries, such as between a troposphere and stratosphere, (iii) realistic water vapour physics,
including its effect on
atmospheric mass and surface pressure, and (iv) cloud properties that respond realistically to climate change.
The
emissions and their partitioning only
include the fluxes that have changed since 1750, and not the natural CO2 fluxes (e.g.,
atmospheric CO2 uptake from weathering, outgassing of CO2 from lakes and rivers, and outgassing of CO2 by the ocean from carbon delivered by rivers) between the atmosphere, land and ocean reservoirs that existed before that time and still exist today.
The decadal predictions system, Met Office decadal prediction system: DePreSys, achieves this by starting predictions from observed
atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and
including projected
emissions of greenhouse gases and variations in natural climate forcings (volcanic and solar activity).
So any of the IPCC projections of future
emissions that
include ANY increase in
atmospheric methane are in very serious error.
Anthropogenic
emissions include many types of GHG's as well as particulates such as black carbon and sulfate aerosols, each of which has a different effect on the atmosphere, and a different
atmospheric lifetime.
Specifically, key parameters of the Human System, such as fertility, health, migration, economic inequality, unemployment, GDP per capita, resource use per capita, and
emissions per capita, must depend on the dynamic variables of the Human — Earth coupled system.26 Not
including these feedbacks would be like trying to make El Niño predictions using dynamic
atmospheric models but with sea surface temperatures as an external input based on future projections independently produced (e.g., by the UN) without feedbacks.
With respect to the first sentence, Federal Defendants admit that for over fifty years some officials and persons employed by the federal government have been aware of a growing body of scientific research concerning the effects of fossil fuel
emissions on
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 —
including that increased concentrations of
atmospheric CO2 could cause measurable long - lasting changes to the global climate, resulting in an array of severe deleterious effects to human beings, which will worsen over time.