In models that include indirect effects, different treatments of the indirect effect are used,
including changing the albedo of clouds according to an off - line calculation (e.g., Tett et al., 2002) and a fully interactive treatment of the effects of aerosols on clouds (e.g., Stott et al., 2006b).
Not exact matches
That's pretty alarming, especially when considered in the context of other positive feedbacks
including changes in
albedo from melting icecaps and release of carbon and methane from thawing permafrost.
The measured energy imbalance accounts for all natural and human - made climate forcings,
including changes of atmospheric aerosols and Earth's surface
albedo.
Specification now of a CO2 target more precise than < 350 ppm is difficult and unnecessary, because of uncertain future
changes of forcings
including other gases, aerosols and surface
albedo.
Other factors would
include: —
albedo shifts (both from ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming to the surface...); — direct effect of CO2 on ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly warm, rain fall on ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting of sea ice shelf increasing mobility of glaciers; — sea water getting under parts of the ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the ice sheet base; —
changes in ocean currents -LRB-?)
The resulting increased / decreased ice is amplified by «various feedbacks,
including ice -
albedo, dust, vegetation and, of course, the carbon cycle which amplify the direct effects of the orbital
changes.»
Volume
change includes both the area reduction (
change in ice coverage,
albedo, and heat absorption / reflection) and the thickness (vulnerability).
«Soot snow / ice
albedo climate forcing is not
included in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change evaluations.
[Response: The
albedo change, going from last glacial maximum to present (pre-industrial time) was about 3.5 + / -1 W / m ^ 2, whereas CO2
change (
including other greenhouse gases) was about 2.6 + / - 0.5), and aerosols about 0.5 + / -1.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (
including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional
changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
It is well known that multiple factors are involved,
including the
change in planetary
albedo,
change in nitrous oxide concentration,
change in methane concentration, and
change in CO2 concentration.
Increasing CO2 does increase the greenhouse effect, but there are other factors which determine climate,
including solar irradiance, volcanism,
albedo, orbital variations, continental drift, mountain building, variations in sea currents,
changes in greenhouse gases, even cometary impacts.
When reconstructing Earth's climate history, it can't be explained without
including all the various influences,
including solar irradiance, volcanism,
albedo, orbital variations, continental drift, mountain building, variations in sea currents,
changes in greenhouse gases, even cometary impacts.
Other feedbacks
include seasonal shift, latitudinal shift,
changes in ice
albedo and the carbon sink and many more.
Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity
including fast feedbacks from
changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface
albedo feedbacks from
changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate — GHG feedbacks from
changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks.
So they say CO2 will rise at a certain rate,
albedo changes from deliberate land - use
changes including urban growth may or may not be specified, but given their assumptions, that is the projected
change.
By so doing, we are ignoring other low frequency forcings (such as long wavelength
changes in TSI and
albedo) which would have to be
included to make any sense of the data.
When many causes all interact — and abrupt climate
change candidates
include the thermohaline circulation, the atmospheric circulation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation,
changes in tropical evaporation, and
changes in
albedo — the human mind needs some help.
The identified atmospheric feedbacks
including changes in planetary
albedo, in water vapour distribution and in meridional latent heat transport are all poorly represented in zonal energy balance model as the one used in [7] whereas they appear to be of primary importance when focusing on ancient greenhouse climates.
The cryosphere derives its importance to the climate system from a variety of effects,
including its high reflectivity (
albedo) for solar radiation, its low thermal conductivity, its large thermal inertia, its potential for affecting ocean circulation (through exchange of freshwater and heat) and atmospheric circulation (through topographic
changes), its large potential for affecting sea level (through growth and melt of land ice), and its potential for affecting greenhouse gases (through
changes in permafrost)(Chapter 4).
Who wudda thunk that
albedo change including clouds would regulate the amount of solar energy absorbed?
Land use influences the climate system in many different ways
including direct emissions from land - use
change, hydrological impacts, biogeophysical impacts (such as
changes in
albedo and surface roughness), and the size of the remaining vegetation stock (influencing CO2 removal from the atmosphere).
The
albedo change by latitude in the paper
includes «surface» and «oceans».
I was surprised there was no mention of
changes in global
albedo or cloud cover in the paper, but I assume that AR5
includes them under «natural variability» rather than forcings.
Other forcings
include changes of aerosols, solar irradiance, and Earth's surface
albedo.
Specification now of a CO2 target more precise than < 350 ppm is difficult and unnecessary, because of uncertain future
changes of forcings
including other gases, aerosols and surface
albedo.
The measured energy imbalance accounts for all natural and human - made climate forcings,
including changes of atmospheric aerosols and Earth's surface
albedo.
Global temps vary for many reasons beyond CO2 levels
including but not limited to: planetary motion,
changes in
albedo, stratospheric aerosols, and solar variability to name a few, but the only area of genuine study by the IPCC has been rising CO2 levels.
When diagnosed within a GCM framework, the semi-direct effect can also
include cloud
changes due to circulation effects and / or surface
albedo effects.
Other potential causes of climate
change include the depletion of stratospheric ozone in recent decades, again through human activities, and global
changes in the surface reflectivity — or
albedo — of the planet, as we modify the patterns of vegetation that cover the land.
These processes
include arctic clouds and their radiative impacts, sea - ice
albedo changes, surface energy fluxes, vertical momentum transfer, and ocean vertical heat transport.
Other types of forcing that vary across the ensemble
include solar variability, the indirect effects of aerosols on clouds and the effects of land use
change on land surface
albedo and other land surface properties (Table 10.1).
In short there are difficult to predict volcano eruptions, varying ocean circulation, clouds and more clouds, a varying sun (both TSI and larger frequency deltas),
changing vegetation
albedo, atmospheric
albedo including 03, earth's position and orientation and more
including cosmic rays.
Temperature
changes induced by sun and oceans drive air circulation
changes which drive
changes in every aspect of climate
including convection, conduction, evaporation, condensation, precipitation, windiness, cloudiness,
albedo and humidity as regards both quantities and distribution.
(iii) Feedbacks
including albedo and water vapour
changes will also act to increase temperatures.
Internal variability doesn't imply an absence of radiative forcing but
includes albedo changes from clouds, dust, snow and ice, vegetation and volcanoes.
The black line, reconstructed from ISCCP satellite data, «is a purely statistical parameter that has little physical meaning as it does not account for the non-linear relations between cloud and surface properties and planetary
albedo and does not
include aerosol related
albedo changes such as associated with Mt. Pinatubo, or human emissions of sulfates for instance» (Real Climate).
Several mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain this reduced temperature gradient,
including increased poleward heat transport, decreased ice
albedo, and
changes in cloud cover (Fedorov et al., 2006).
Seems to me David's mistake is not noticing that the rapid events are internal to the climate system, not external; they may cause fast
changes in
albedo for example for a while; and they are modeled, see Dr. Bitz's work on Arctic sea ice, or any model
including volcanos or Atlantic deep water currents etc..
The climate history of Earth during the glacial - interglacial cycles of the last 1 million years provides an essential context for an understanding of current climate
changes,
including the relations between solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing,
albedo changes and global temperatures.
It is logical to presume that
changes in Earth's
albedo are due to increases and decreases in low cloud cover, which in turn is related to the climate
change that we have observed during the 20th Century,
including the present global cooling.
But in the GISS - E2 - R historical and single forcing simulations, only the
albedo effect of land use
change appears to have been
included.