Coral reefs are under stress for several reasons,
including warming of the ocean, but especially because of ocean acidification, a direct effect of added carbon dioxide.
The lack of a statistically significant warming trend in GMST does not mean that the planet isn't warming, firstly because GMST doesn't
include the warming of the oceans (see many posts on ocean heat content) and secondly because a lack of a statistically significant warming trend doesn't mean that it isn't warming, just that it isn't warming at a sufficiently high rate to rule out the possibility of there being no warming over that period.
Not exact matches
When thinking
of my ideal vacation destination, it almost always
includes a
warm ocean, a clean beach, beautiful resort pools and good food.
That might
include draining away the water that lubricates the bottom
of an ice sheet, speeding its progress to the sea, or installing barriers to prevent
warming ocean waters from hitting the bottom
of such glaciers and hastening meltdown.
This refers to the limit
of warming beyond which the island states will become unviable in the face
of threats
including rising sea levels, flooding,
ocean acidification and drought.
They must also deal with a host
of challenges tied directly to the environment and potentially amplified by climate change,
including warming waters, increasing
ocean acidity and the spread
of diseases that can decimate shellfish stocks.
We've narrowed the uncertainty in surface
warming projections by generating thousands
of climate simulations that each closely match observational records for nine key climate metrics,
including warming and
ocean heat content.»
«When we
included projected Antarctic wind shifts in a detailed global
ocean model, we found water up to 4 °C
warmer than current temperatures rose up to meet the base
of the Antarctic ice shelves,» said lead author Dr Paul Spence from the ARC Centre
of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS).
El Niño has helped to boost temperatures this year, as it leads to
warmer ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, as well as
warmer surface temperatures in many other spots around the globe,
including much
of the northern half
of the U.S..
The report found that
ocean warming is affecting a multitude
of ocean processes,
including breeding and migration patterns
of ocean species such as plankton, whales and fish.
I expect the rate
of warming to proceed at a steady pace, about one and a half degrees over land in the next 50 years, less if the
oceans are
included.
I'd love to know what they did take into account in attempting to model that period — must
include astronomical location, sun's behavior, best estimates about a lot
of different conditions — where the continents were, what the
ocean circulation was doing, whether there had been a recent geological period that laid down a lot
of methane hydrates available to be tipped by Pliocene
warming into bubbling out rapidly.
The planet has also been running abnormally
warm,
including record heat in much
of the world's
oceans.
The observed patterns
of warming,
including greater
warming over land than over the
ocean, and their changes over time, are only simulated by models that
include anthropogenic forcing.
Consistent with observed changes in surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction in glacier and small ice cap (not
including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and extent in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased in many regions
of the Northern Hemisphere; sea ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the
oceans are
warming; and sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
With the contribution
of such record warmth at year's end and with 10 months
of the year record
warm for their respective months,
including the last 8 (January was second
warmest for January and April was third
warmest), the average global temperature across land and
ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century average
of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth
of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
It's not just
ocean acidification threatening these reefs, it's a number
of factors
including overfishing, disease, development and
warming waters.
From his own research in chemical oceanography, along with data from a number
of recent studies, Weber points out that some negative consequences
of greenhouse gas emissions and
warming «are manifesting faster than previously predicted,»
including ocean acidification and oxygen loss, which are expected to affect «a large fraction
of marine species if current trends continue unchecked.»
Incorporate into MPA management plans specific adaptation strategies and actions to address climate - change threats (
ocean acidification and
warming and sea - level rise),
including monitoring
of their effectiveness.
The abstract
includes the statement: «Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land
warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide
warming of the
oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land.»
The IPCC's overall estimate
of global sea level rise, which
includes all the other factors that affect sea levels, such as melt from Greenland's ice sheets and the
oceans expanding as they
warm, is 60 cm by 2100 (with a likely range
of 42 to 80 cm).
Rather,
warm water melting the ice at the ice /
ocean interface is causing rapid changes,
including ice - shelf collapse, and acceleration and recession
of Pine Island Glacier.
... Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects
of climate,
including ocean warming, continental - average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns The ASA endorses the IPCC conclusions
The long - term
warming of the planet, as well as an exceptionally strong El Niño, led to numerous climate records in 2015,
including milestones for global temperatures, carbon dioxide levels and
ocean heat, according to the World Meteorological Organization's annual State
of the Climate Report.
The long lifetime
of the fossil fuel carbon in the climate system and the persistence
of ocean warming for millennia [201] provide sufficient time for the climate system to achieve full response to the fast feedback processes
included in the 3 °C climate sensitivity.
A 2016 study published in the Proceedings
of the National Academy
of Sciences suggested that
warmer ocean temperatures may be fueling the growth
of dangerous bacteria —
including Vibrio — in northern seas.
Guests can enjoy
includes unique massages like the «On the Rocks» — a special healing, balancing and restoring massage with
warmed sea stones; or the «
Ocean Combo Massage» which is a fab combo
of different techniques that will relieve tension.
Many
of these large mammals migrate back to the
warm Pacific
Ocean waters
of Banderas Bay for the winter months to feed, mate or give birth and
include, among others:
The abundant waters off the coast
of Cabo San Lucas — located at the southern tip
of the Baja Peninsula, where the calm and
warm waters
of the Sea
of Cortez mixes with the unfathomable cool currents
of the Pacific
Ocean — offer the ideal conditions for plenty
of sport - fish species,
including (among others) Rooster Fish, Mahi Mahi (known locally as Dorado), varieties
of Tuna, Sharks, Jacks, Groupers, and Billfish such as Sailfish, Swordfish, Black Marlin, Blue Marlin and Striped Marlin.
Future topics that will be discussed
include: climate sensitivity, sea level rise, urban heat island - effects, the value
of comprehensive climate models,
ocean heat storage, and the
warming trend over the past few decades.
The first is to emphasize your point that degassing
of CO2 from the
oceans is not simply a matter
of warmer water reducing CO2 solubility, and that important additional factors
include changes in wind patterns, reduction in sea ice cover to reveal a larger surface for gas escape, and upwelling
of CO2 from depths consequent to the changing climate patterns.
Other factors would
include: — albedo shifts (both from ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming to the surface...); — direct effect
of CO2 on ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly
warm, rain fall on ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more
warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting
of sea ice shelf increasing mobility
of glaciers; — sea water getting under parts
of the ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the ice sheet base; — changes in
ocean currents -LRB-?)
So there are issues
of the areas not
included and they assume the 17 percent
of the
ocean not sampled
warms at the same rate, but in fact the Arctic and Indonesian regions are
warming much faster, but at least they did
include something.
Some
of the elements driving an increase in sea bottom
warming and methane release
include: — increasingly ice free
ocean allowing more waves; — increasing (and increasingly intense?)
I think the inflation would be a consequence
of that fact that (except for some things), in so far as the efficient market hypothesis applies, we would be operating optimally now except for global
warming and
ocean acidification; applying the tax pulls us away from that optimum, the economy will then not be as efficient (ignoring externalities); but we should want to do this because the economy is now more efficient when
including the externalities.
«Borehole temperatures in the ice sheets spanning the last 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly
warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa... The phenomena has been called the polar see - saw... Attempts to account for it have
included the hypothesis
of a south - flowing
warm ocean current with a built in time lag... There is (however) no significant delay in the Anarctica climate anomaly...
It discusses the only the impact
of the
ocean on rates
of warming and how that reduced expected trends in Antarctica with respect to earlier simulations that did not
include such effects.
2) Anthropogenic global
warming will not affect the Arctic (or any other region) solely by increasing local temperatures, but also by its complex effects on climate as a whole, which
includes affects on patterns
of wind and
ocean currents.
Corresponding time for surface + tropospheric equilibration: given 3 K
warming (
including feedbacks) per ~ 3.7 W / m2 forcing (this
includes the effects
of feedbacks): 10 years per heat capacity
of ~ 130 m layer
of ocean (~ heat capacity
of 92 or 93 m
of liquid water spread over the whole globe)
Our own (as yet unpublished — so you don't need to believe me) simulations also show NH
oceans warming at a slightly faster rate than the SH
including all
of the forcings we have discussed.
Updated, 3:10 p.m. Using climate models and observations, a fascinating study in this week's issue
of Nature Climate Change points to a marked recent
warming of the Atlantic
Ocean as a powerful shaper of a host of notable changes in climate and ocean patterns in the last couple of decades — including Pacific wind, sea level and ocean patterns, the decade - plus hiatus in global warming and even California's deepening dro
Ocean as a powerful shaper
of a host
of notable changes in climate and
ocean patterns in the last couple of decades — including Pacific wind, sea level and ocean patterns, the decade - plus hiatus in global warming and even California's deepening dro
ocean patterns in the last couple
of decades —
including Pacific wind, sea level and
ocean patterns, the decade - plus hiatus in global warming and even California's deepening dro
ocean patterns, the decade - plus hiatus in global
warming and even California's deepening drought.
Other forcings,
including the growth and decay
of massive Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets, changes in atmospheric dust, and changes in the
ocean circulation, are not likely to have the same kind
of effect in a future
warming scenario as they did at glacial times.
The 2005 Jan - Sep land data (which is adjusted for urban biases) is higher than the previously
warmest year (0.76 °C compared to the 1998 anomaly
of 0.75 °C for the same months, and a 0.71 °C anomaly for the whole year), while the land -
ocean temperature index (which
includes sea surface temperature data) is trailing slightly behind (0.58 °C compared to 0.60 °C Jan - Sep, 0.56 °C for the whole
of 1998).
The forecast said there was substantial risk
of bleaching in parts
of the Pacific
Ocean, as well, and noted that this did not
include the extra heat anticipated from a developing El Niño
warming of the tropical Pacific.
But efforts to tease out the impact
of human - driven global
warming in the region are complicated by the big influence around the Bering Sea
of natural variations in
ocean conditions,
including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Consider the possibility that not just millions, but billions face disastrous consequences from the likes
of (
including but not limited to): Sandy (and other hybrid and out -
of - season storms enhanced by the earth's circulatory eccentricities and
warmer oceans); the drought in progress; wildfires; floods (just last week, Argentina had 16 inches
of rain in 2 hours *); derechos; increased cold and snow in the north as the Arctic melts and cracks up, breaking up the Arctic circulation and sending cold out
of what was previously largely a contained system, and losing its own consistent cold, seriously interfering with the Jet Stream, pollution
of multiple kinds such as in China, the increase
of algae and the like in our
oceans as they heat, and food and water shortages.
Other aspects
of global
warming's broad footprint on the world's ecosystems
include changes in the abundance
of more than 80 percent
of the thousands
of species
included in population studies; major poleward shifts in living ranges as
warm regions become hot, and cold regions become
warmer; major increases (in the south) and decreases (in the north)
of the abundance
of plankton, which forms the critical base
of the
ocean's food chain; the transformation
of previously innocuous insect species like the Aspen leaf miner into pests that have damaged millions
of acres
of forest; and an increase in the range and abundance
of human pathogens like the cholera - causing bacteria Vibrio, the mosquito - borne dengue virus, and the ticks that carry Lyme disease - causing bacteria.
The total change in
ocean heat,
including deep water regions is the best gauge
of global
warming.
Instead, they discuss new ways
of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century
warming is about half
of the
warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list
of fudge factors to
include smaller volcanos, stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate
of uncertainty for the predicted change in Ts), transfer
of heat to the deeper
ocean (where changes in heat content are hard to accurately measure), etc..
Stealth - You were involved in a long discussion
of IR /
ocean heating here,
including the accuracy
of OHC measurement, and in a discussion
of the human contribution to
warming here (thanks go to Google Search).