Both effects will tend to
increase hurricane strength.
He points out that climate change may
increase hurricane strength.
Certainly any increase in air temperature from radiative forcings (apparently reasonably well modeled in the GCMs) is going to increase the temperature differential from ground to space, which will increase the vertical air velocity (ie
increased hurricane strength) and DECREASE the residence time of energy in the air in the same manner that GHGs increase the residence time.
It will also be interesting to see plaintiffs explain this graph of accumulated cyclone energy in the light of their theory that man - made global warming is
increasing hurricane strengths and frequencies (ACE is a sort of integration of hurricane and tropical storm strengths over time).
The kind of things I'm referring to are more frequent and intense heatwaves, flooding and droughts, sea level rise and its associated impacts, glacier melt, damage to sensitive ecosystems, increased tropical cyclone activity,
increased hurricane strength, ocean acidification.
I know Judith claims that the hurricane fallout was dealt with well, but would it have come out so well if the issue had arisen * before * the hockeystick controversy came about, or if John Houghton had been photographed standing before a Webster plot of ever
increasing hurricane strength?
Not exact matches
There is, however, limited evidence from a relatively short time period that storm
strength is
increasing, such as the Emanuel (2005) «power dissipation index» of
hurricane intensity.
As the planet warms from
increasing greenhouse gases, more energy is going into the oceans, which is an important component in the
strength of
hurricanes (also known as tropical cyclones).
The meteorological focus is on
Hurricane Harvey, which
increased in
strength to Category 4 status Friday evening when its winds jumped to 130 mph as it makes way northwestward to the south Texas coast.
Be prepared for one category higher than the one being forecast, because
hurricanes often
increase in
strength just before making landfall.
Maybe it's an explanation, with SST
increasing, to the future average
strength of
hurricanes.
If not, and the upper troposphere warms less rapidly than the surface, the temperature difference relevant for
hurricane strength will
increase that much faster.
«Damages caused by doubling the
strength of
hurricanes would be massive and
increasing dramatically.
During the period 1992 - 2000, the average sea - surface temperature of the Indian Ocean
increased by approximately 0.25 Celsius, this may be the cause of an
increased monsoon
strength here (or more
hurricanes on other places)...
Still smaller, to be sure, than natural variability, but certainly not nothing, when once considers that that each degree c represents a 15 - 20 mph
increase in potential
hurricane strength.
I don't find that a tenable position (if that's indeed what you're saying) because the fact that the
increase is detectable at all opens the possibility that
hurricane strength will
increase much more than models currently predict.
Unfortunately, every article I have read that explains why
hurricane strength is anticipated to
increase merely cites the observed link between
hurricane strength and ocean temperature, without explaining why CO2 would cause water tempertaures to rise more than that of the air above it.
Can anyone here cogently explain the physical basis for the prediction that warming from CO2 would
increase the frequency or
strength of
hurricanes?
Today's 1 °F (0.5 °C) change in ocean temperatures should correspond to about a one percent
increase in
hurricane strength, which is too small for modern instruments to detect, according to Landsea.
Hurricanes, for example, should tend to
increase in
strength as seas become warmer2 but we also expect that changes in wind shear3 (the change in wind direction with height) should cause a reduction in
hurricane frequency4.
As a result,
hurricane strength and damage are projected to continue
increasing in a warming world.
There is no straightforward connection between
hurricane strength and sea surface temperatures (Swanson, 2008) and when we look at past records,
hurricanes vary much more coherently with natural climate oscillations than with
increasing greenhouse gasses (Chylek and Lesins, 2008).
The duration and
strength of
hurricanes have
increased by about 50 percent over the last three decades, according to study author Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.
Most IPCC climate models project an
increase in the
strength of tropical storms and
hurricanes as the oceans warm.
Over the coming decades, Atlantic
hurricanes are likely to
increase in
strength as sea surface temperatures
increase, fueling the intensity of storms in the Atlantic Ocean, and significantly
increasing rainfall rates over those of present day storms.
The stronger the force from the Coriolis effect, the faster the wind spins and picks up additional energy,
increasing the
strength of the
hurricane.
Right after Katrina, «
hurricanes increasing in
strength and number!»
And since the 1980s, there has been an
increase in the number and
strength of Category 4 and 5
hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean, even though few have made landfall.
Following that logic, as
hurricanes are also predicted by AGW to
increase in
strength and frequency, all
hurricanes are now due to AGW?
«Thinking about the
increase in the number and
strength of
hurricanes in recent years, do you think global warming has been a major cause, a minor cause, or not a cause of the
increase in
hurricanes?»
If AGW doesn't intrinsically
increase hurricane frequency (just
strength) but does
increase El Nino events, then we should see a decrease in Gulf and Atlantic
hurricanes and landfalls.
I'm interested in how a long duration model of
hurricane activity could show
increases and decreases in
hurricane strength, frequency and size, which could give a more clear image of how much GW is calling the shots, so to speak.
Since we have good reason to expect that the response may be different in the Atlantic, using evidence for
increases in
strength of Pacific cyclones as an argument for why we should expect
increases in the number of major Atlantic
hurricanes makes no sense to me.
However, by
increasing the categrories (4 +5) or (3 +4 +5) there is clear evidence (given the limitations in the data records) that the distribution of
hurricane strength has shifted towards more intense storms.
4) As this causes an
increase in
hurricane frequency and
strength, 5) This
hurricane season should have at least 11
hurricanes in the Atlantic / Caribbean by this date.