Indirectly, human activity that increases global temperatures will
increase water vapor concentrations, a process known as water vapor feedback.
Current state - of - the - art climate models predict that
increasing water vapor concentrations in warmer air will amplify the greenhouse effect created by anthropogenic greenhouse gases while maintaining nearly constant relative humidity.
Not exact matches
... The Earth's atmospheric methane
concentration has
increased by about 150 % since 1750, and it accounts for 20 % of the total radiative forcing from all of the long - lived and globally mixed greenhouse gases (these gases don't include
water vapor which is by far the largest component of the greenhouse effect).
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are
increasing its
concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG,
water vapor, exists in equilibrium with
water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet,
water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are
increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders
increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs,
increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
1) Even though CO2
concentrations in the atmosphere has gone up by 30 % over the last 200 years or so (compared to being stable for 400 000), I have a hard time to comprehend how an
increase from 0.028 % to 0.038 % of CO2 by volume can have any effect on the thermal mass of the atmosphere considering that
water vapor by volume is 50x greater and has higher thermal coefficients.
So as more CO2 gets pumped into the atmosphere the temperature rises, which causes more
water to evaporate (as you accurately state),
increasing the
concentration of
water vapor in the atmosphere — which heats the atmosphere even more, causing even more
water vapor to enter the atmosphere.
increase in the
concentration of
water vapor in the atmosphere as the atmosphere warms as indicated by the Clausius - Clapeyron equation.
Their results were not global and the did not show a total
increase in ghg
concentration b / c the omitted
water vapor, the strongest and most abundant ghg!
Specifically, as global temperatures have steadily
increased at their fastest rates in millions of years, it's directly affected things like
water vapor concentrations, clouds, precipitation patterns, and stream flow patterns, which are all related to the
water cycle.
Therefore, near the poles,
water vapor is near zero, almost all of the GHG
concentrations are from the non - condensing / man - caused -
increasing CO2 and methane.
The collapse of the Sc clouds occurs because, as the free - tropospheric longwave opacity
increases with
increased CO2 and
water vapor concentrations, the turbulent mixing that is driven by cloud - top radiative cooling weakens, and therefore is unable to maintain the Sc layer.
The
water vapor, lapse - rate and ice - albedo feedbacks in isolation enhance the global warming that would result from
increasing CO2
concentrations alone to around +2.2 °C.
Changing
concentrations of CO2 will impact the temperature and if it is an
increase the positive feedback of drawing out more
water vapor will contribute to the average climate getting warmer.
If, for instance, CO2
concentrations are doubled, then the absorption would
increase by 4 W / m2, but once the
water vapor and clouds react, the absorption
increases by almost 20 W / m2 — demonstrating that (in the GISS climate model, at least) the «feedbacks» are amplifying the effects of the initial radiative forcing from CO2 alone.
For instance, as temperature rises, the maximum sustainable
water vapor concentration increases by about 7 % per degree Celsius.
An observed consequence of higher
water vapor concentrations is the
increased frequency of intense precipitation events, mainly over land areas.
It only becomes significant in the models by assuming that
water vapor concentration increases in response to the slight warming produced by CO2
increases and therefore constitutes a powerful positive feedback effect which triples the effect of CO2 by itself.
The effect of a unit of
water vapor is logarithmic and diminishes as total
concentration increases.
Water vapor then reacts to this
increased absorption, its
concentration in air diminishes, its share of IR absorption goes down, and atmospheric transmittance is restored to its nominal 15 percent again.
3 Further complicating the response of the different atmospheric levels to
increases in greenhouse gases are other processes such as those associated with changes in the
concentration and distribution of atmospheric
water vapor and clouds.
If we were to
increase the level of
water vapor in the atmosphere and leave everything else unchanged, the
water vapor would fairly quickly condense out as rain, snow, frost or dew and there would be no lasting effect on global temperatures Carbon dioxide comes second after
water vapor and its
concentration in the atmosphere is heavily affected by burning of fossil fuels.
This heat - trapping, warming influence of the blanket of air over the Earth's surface is called the greenhouse effect, and it will become even stronger as greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and
water vapor increase in
concentration.
For more than 10 years (I forgot how much more), upper tropospheric
water vapor has not
increased in response to significant
increases in CO2 atmospheric
concentrations.
Cloud condensation nuclei: Aerosol particles that provide a platform for the condensation of
water vapor, resulting in clouds with higher droplet
concentrations and
increased albedo.
Consequently, as air warms, for whatever reason, more evaporation may take place and the
concentration of
water vapor may
increase.
«The resulting uniform
increase of longwave downward radiation manifests radiative forcing that is induced by greenhouse gas
concentrations and
water vapor feedback, and proves the «theory» of greenhouse warming with direct observations.»
Note that this is only part of the story since, as far as we are aware, no one has yet investigated a counterintuitive parallel effect — condensation and precipitation will likely reduce the total lower atmospheric
concentration of that ubiquitous greenhouse gas,
water vapor, so
increasing clear sky radiative cooling.
... And with a general
increase in SSTs, I expect certain kinds of low - frequency variability, in particular those in which SST anomalies produce a perturbation wave train in the westerlies allowing for global teleconnections, to be more sensitive to the same SST anomalies, because of the exponential temperature dependence of
water vapor concentration (involved in latent heating, enhances deep convection, etc.).
Should the Hadley cell, monsoons, and Walker circulation be expected to
increase in strength due to greater
water vapor concentrations (except where aerosol emissions throw a wrench into it)?
Because CO2's ability to absorb IR
increases linearly at low
concentrations (under 100ppm) a minimal amount even absent most
water vapor serves to keep the earth just warm enough to prevent a snowball earth episode most of the time.
Where
water vapor is important is as a feedback effect... whereby the warming of the atmosphere due to
increased CO2 causes the «equilibrium»
concentration of
water vapor to
increase and this then enhances the warming because of
water vapor's absorption of infrared radiation.
But perhaps most importantly, the fact that the
concentration of
water vapor does
increase and decrease along with external temperature changes was proven as a result of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo.
Secondly, though the models assume that the
concentration of
water vapor will
increase in the tropical mid-troposphere as the space occupied by the atmosphere warms, advection transports much of the additional
water vapor poleward from the tropics at that altitude.
Is there a way to calculate the forcing where
increasing concentrations of CO2 causing a feedback of
increasing H2O evaporation yield an amplified forcing from the combination of CO2 and
water vapor?
While it was true that the atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide had been
increasing, he said, and had passed 400 parts per million, the dominant effect of
water vapor had helped flatten the greenhouse effect, such that the rise of global surface temperatures had slowed significantly.