Not exact matches
The record - breaking cold in Erie County this month may have led to an
increase in infants sleeping
with parents or having blankets placed
over them while sleeping in an effort to keep them
warm.
For a start, observational records are now roughly five years longer, and the global temperature
increase over this period has been largely consistent
with IPCC projections of greenhouse gas — driven
warming made in previous reports dating back to 1990.
The findings were not a total surprise,
with future projections showing that even
with moderate climate
warming, air temperatures
over the higher altitudes
increase even more than at sea level, and that, on average, fewer winter storm systems will impact the state.
They found that people high in the psychological attribute called attachment anxiety (a tendency to worry about the proximity and availability of a romantic partner) responded to memories of a relationship breakup
with an
increased preference for
warm - temperature foods
over cooler ones: soup
over crackers.
Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial
warming over the past century,
with temperatures
increasing about twice as rapidly
over land as
over the oceans.
Southern Ocean seafloor water temperatures are projected to
warm by an average of 0.4 °C
over this century
with some areas possibly
increasing by as much as 2 °C.
Projected global
warming will likely decrease the extent of temperate drylands by a third
over the remainder of the 21st century coupled
with an
increase in dry deep soil conditions during agricultural growing season.
Over the last decade, rock avalanches and landslides have become more common in high mountain ranges, apparently coinciding
with the
increase in exceptionally
warm periods (see «Early signs»).
Thus, a homeowner will probably not be able to show that the hurricane that destroyed his house was spawned by global
warming, but the state of Florida may well prove that
increased damage to coastal property
over several years has a lot to do
with climate change.
Although plant activity can
increase with warmer temperatures and higher carbon dioxideconcentrations, the change in carbon dioxide amplitude
over the last 50 years is larger than expected from these effects.
However, delaying additional mitigation to 2030 will substantially
increase the technological, economic, social and institutional challenges associated
with limiting the
warming over the 21st century to below 2ºC relative to pre-industrial levels, the report finds.
«Looking at weather and dengue incidents
over longer periods, we found a similar strong link between how
increased rainfall and
warmer temperatures resulting from the reoccurring el Niño phenomenon are associated
with elevated risks of dengue epidemics.
Contrary to what you might expect, the third IPPC report predicted that global
warming would most likely lead to a thickening of the ice sheet
over the next century,
with increased snowfall compensating for any melting cause by
warming.
Coral skeletons are the building blocks of diverse coral reef ecosystems, which has led to
increasing concern
over how these key species will cope
with warming and acidifying oceans that threaten their stability.
This continues the trend of
warming winters
over the past few decades as the climate
warms from
increasing greenhouse gases,
with the eastern two - thirds of the country
warming the most during the winter.
There was a
warm, stable climate
with dispersed continents surounded by vast
warm and shallow seas
over continental shelves that provided light, oxygen, and nutrients for life to thrive in, because intense mountain - building also
increased erosion and the discharge of eroded nutrients into those seas.
As it turned out, the world's temperature has risen about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) and mainstream scientists continue to predict,
with increasing urgency, that if emissions are not curtailed, carbon pollution would lock in
warming of as much as 3 to 6 °C (or 5 to 11 °F)
over the next several decades.
Over the last decade, rock avalanches and landslides have become more common in high mountain ranges, apparently coinciding
with the
increase in exceptionally
warm periods.
The
increased risk of further heat waves (intensive heat
over relatively short time scales) as well as exposure to
warmer temperatures
over the longer term, suggest that recovery will depend on thermally - resistant individuals that may trade - off high temperature tolerance
with other important attributes such as nutritional value or rapid growth.
Temperature extremes
over these years is basically in line
with what is expected under global
warming - an
increase in extremely
warm episodes and a decline in extremely cold ones.
Additionally, sea level rise driven by climate
warming combined
with coastal subsidence related to human activities
increased the storm surge while urban development such as paving
over grasslands and prairies are likely to have exacerbated flooding.
In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A,
with global
warming peaking just
over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow summer sea ice to survive and then gradually
increase to levels representative of recent decades.
«suggesting that Arctic
warming will continue to greatly exceed the global average
over the coming century,
with concomitant reductions in terrestrial ice masses and, consequently, an
increasing rate of sea level rise.»
These have shown about a 0.7 C
warming over land during the last century,
with somewhat less
increase indicated
over oceans.
«The major trends
over time are a wintertime WVP and LWP
increase south and southwest of Greenland also seen in precipitation, consistent
with modification of continental air flowing out
over increasingly
warmer waters.
Many of the experts (like Dr Hansen) dealing
with global
warming rightfully only look at what they think is going on and since the concentration of carbon dioxide (although I still have no idea how they can get an average concentration reading instantly all
over the world) has
increased, the culprit of global
warming is this
increase of carbon dioxide.
And as early as the 1970s, researchers predicted that
increased greenhouse gas production was accelerating global
warming,
with the potentially catastrophic consequences that are playing out now, all
over the world.
So for example deglaciation
warmed global mean temps by about 5 C
over 10k years
with a radiative forcing of about 6.5 W / m2 (total of both GHG
increases and albedo decreases).
There are various interpretations possible, e.g. a) The big
increase in hurricane power
over the past 30 years or so may not have much to do
with global
warming, or b) The models are simply not faithfully reproducing what nature is doing.
Paul S (# 1)-- Since the Planck Response dominates
over positive feedback responses to temperature, wouldn't a La Nina - like failure of surface temperature to rise lead to an
increase rather than a reduction in energy accumulation compared
with accumulation during a surface
warming — presumably a small
increase, so that the observed rise in ocean heat content would still be substantial?
The number of Americans who say they discuss global
warming with family and friends at least occasionally
increased by 9 percentage points
over the past six months.
[T] here have now been several recent papers showing much the same — numerous factors including: the
increase in positive forcing (CO2 and the recent work on black carbon), decrease in estimated negative forcing (aerosols), combined
with the stubborn refusal of the planet to
warm as had been predicted
over the last decade, all makes a high climate sensitivity increasingly untenable.
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
Warming must occur below the tropopause to
increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that
increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution
over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric
warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause;
with greater optically thickness
over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of
warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux at TOA).
Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures do appear to have cooled
over that period, and that contrasts
with a continuing
increase in CO2, which if all else had been equal, should have led to
warming.
As a result, the Earth has
warmed at an alarming rate
over the past century,
with average temperatures
increasing by more than 0.8 °C (1.5 °F).
Consenquently, the associated SST pattern is slightly cooler in the deep convection upwelling regions of the Equitorial Pacific and the Indian Ocean, strongly cooler in the nearest deep convection source region of the South Atlantic near Africa and the Equator,
warm over the bulk of the North Atlantic, strongly
warmer where the gulf stream loses the largest portion of its heat near 50N 25W, and strongly cooler near 45N 45W, which turns out to be a back - eddy of the Gulf Stream
with increased transport of cold water from the north whenever the Gulf Stream is running quickly.
'' a) The big
increase in hurricane power
over the past 30 years or so may not have much to do
with global
warming, or b) The models are simply not faithfully reproducing what nature is doing.
(1) One is the ice sheet and glacier mechanical collapse, which doesn't require a whole lot more
warming, but will happen
with some set minimum amount of
warming over some time period; and (2) the other is global
warming that keeps
increasing beyond the level needed to cause # 1, which among other things will perhaps lead to positive carbon feedbacks (e.g., from melting permafrost and hydrates).
If it is correct then how can the GHG
warming be a ratio of forcings (ie 1.5
over 0.3) higher which does NOT agree
with the observed temperature
increase.
And, as the satellite observations of Spencer and Braswell showed, as the planet
warms over a period of several months, clouds act as a net negative feedback (the reflecting low - altitude clouds
increase more than the absorbing high - altitude clouds
with warming).
This albedo has been changing
over recent decades and is responsible for most ocean
warming with the
increased maintained higher solar levels.
Mean and maximal temperatures of the upper 20 m of the lake
increased by > 2 oC
over 21 years
with the 6 coolest years in the early 1980s and the 6
warmest years in the late 90s and early 2000s.
Spencer + Braswell have shown that
over the tropics on a shorter - term basis, the net overall feedback from clouds
with warming is negative; this is largely due to an
increase in reflection of incoming radiation by
increased clouds
with a smaller effect from the reduction of energy trapping high altitude clouds, which slow down outgoing radiation by absorbing and re-radiating energy.
Annual average evaporation (Figure 10.12)
increases over much of the ocean,
with spatial variations tending to relate to those in the surface
warming (Figure 10.8).
In the SH, changes in circulation related to an
increase in the SAM from the 1960s to the present are associated
with strong
warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and, to a lesser extent, cooling
over parts of continental Antarctica.
If I understood Armour's paper correctly, he claimed that all feed - backs were close to linear in response to temperature
over time, but that different regional
warming rates (specifically, slow
warming at high latitudes) could make the feed - backs and sensitivity appear to
increase with time.
Based on this, the longer term planning should probably be based (from the available evidence) on an assumption of a measurable
increase in temperature
over the next 15 - 20 years,
with the uncertainty being in the range «slight cooling» to «significant
warming».
Even though some of the CMIP models produce a lot of global
warming, all of them are still stable in this regard,
with net
increases in lost radiation
with warming (NOTE: If analyzing the transient CMIP runs where CO2 is
increased over long periods of time, one must first remove that radiative forcing in order to see the
increase in radiative loss).
There are numerous statements I do agree
with, such as the fact there has been some
warming over the last 100 or so years, and that CO2
increase is probably due in large part to human activity.
Even
with this
increase over the last 11 years, the fact remains that still less than a majority of Americans, at this point, believe global
warming will pose a serious threat to them in their lifetimes.