However, the relative cooling effect of sulphate aerosols is dominated by the effects of increasing greenhouse gases by the end of the 21st century in the SRES marker scenarios (Figure 10.26), leading to
the increased monsoon precipitation at the end of the 21st century in these scenarios (see Section 10.3.2.3).
Meehl and Arblaster (2003) relate
the increased monsoon precipitation variability to increased variability in evaporation and precipitation in the Pacific due to increased SSTs.
Not exact matches
The
monsoon precipitation intensified, and the
increase caused erosion along the Tibetan Plateau and lower elevation areas nearby in what today is China, researchers found.
So while the
monsoon winds might weaken the
precipitation nonetheless
increases (more bang for the buck) as a weaker circulation carries more water vapor (and latent energy).
Previous general circulation models have suggested that the
monsoons were simply shifting later, with decreased rains through July but
increased precipitation in September and October.
The main dynamical driver of the
monsoon is therefore the positive moisture - advection feedback (Fig. 1 A): The release of latent heat from
precipitation over land adds to the temperature difference between land and ocean, thus driving stronger winds from ocean to land and
increasing in this way landward advection of moisture, which leads to enhanced
precipitation and associated release of latent heat.
The inability of global climate models to match the timing or placement of short - term or regional
precipitation patterns such as the West African
monsoon may be alleviated by «downscaling» to use smaller scale climate models with
increased area resolution.
Increased southern East Asian summer
monsoon (SEASM)
precipitation is related to warm WNP SST anomalies which create a weaker WNP anticyclone.
This
increases precipitation during the summer African
monsoon season.
The prominent upward trend in the GM
precipitation occurring in the last century and the notable strengthening of the global
monsoon in the last 30 yr (1961 — 90) appear unprecedented and are due possibly in part to the
increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, though the authors» simulations of the effects from recent warming may be overestimated without considering the negative feedbacks from aerosols.
Model simulations of the Asian
monsoon project that the sulphate aerosols» direct effect reduces the magnitude of
precipitation change compared with the case of only greenhouse gas
increases (Emori et al., 1999; Roeckner et al., 1999; Lal and Singh, 2001).
Most model results project
increased interannual variability in season - averaged Asian
monsoon precipitation associated with an
increase in its long - term mean value (e.g., Hu et al., 2000b; Räisänen, 2002; Meehl and Arblaster, 2003).
In the tropics, an
increase in
precipitation is projected by the end of the 21st century in the Asian
monsoon and the southern part of the West African
monsoon with some decreases in the Sahel in northern summer (Cook and Vizy, 2006), as well as
increases in the Australian
monsoon in southern summer in a warmer climate (Figure 10.9).
Together with the progressive shortening of the ISM season and gradual southward retreat of the summer ITCZ, the total amount of
monsoon precipitation decreased in those areas located at the northern fringe of the ISM domain, but
increased in areas closer to the equator.
The fourth assessment report of the IPCC had this to say about the
monsoon: «It is likely that warming associated with
increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an
increase of Asian summer
monsoon precipitation variability.
It can also strengthen the Asian summer
monsoon circulation and cause a local
increase in
precipitation, despite the global reduction of evaporation that compensates aerosol radiative heating at the surface (Miller et al., 2004b).
In its projection for South Asia, the technical summary of the report clearly points at «enhanced summer
monsoon precipitation and
increased rainfall extremes of landfall cyclones on the coasts of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea».
This event is associated with cold and dry conditions
increasing with latitude in the North, temperature and
precipitation influences on tropical and boreal wetlands, Siberian - like winters in much of the North Atlantic, weakening of
monsoon intensity, and southward displacement of tropical rainfall patterns.
«Many anticipated adverse impacts of climate change including sea level rise, higher temperatures, enhanced
monsoon precipitation and run - off, potentially reduced dry season
precipitation, and an
increase in cyclone intensity would in fact aggravate many of the existing stresses that already pose a serious impediment to the process economic development of Bangladesh.
Our experiments show that the solar cycle influences tropospheric rainfall patterns in a manner consistent with some observations, with
increased solar activity favoring
precipitation north of the equator (for example, the South Asian
monsoon) and decreased
precipitation both near the equator and at northern mid-latitudes.
«With an early arrival of
monsoon - like atmospheric circulation in June, the heavy
precipitation that occurred in northern India was a once - in - a-century event; however, analyses of observed and simulated June
precipitation provide evidence that human - caused climate change has
increased the likelihood of such an event.»
In summary, an intensification of the Asian summer
monsoon and an enhancement of summer
monsoon precipitation variability with
increased greenhouse gases that was reported in the SAR has been corroborated by new studies.