It's the same mythology used about
increased number of hurricanes.
There's no need for
increased numbers of hurricanes for that to happen, only that they survive the trip north as they are fed by warmer waters.
Whether climate change will
increase the number of hurricanes is fiercely debated in the research community.
It is still a matter of debate whether climate change will
increase the number of hurricanes, but it is more and more clear that human - caused heating of the planet will boost their severity.
In fact, recent studies predict that while climate change may not
increase the number of hurricanes in general, it will increase the number of extremely intense ones.
Not exact matches
Experts say that while the
number of storms per year is steady, stronger
hurricanes have
increased in recent decades.
Using records dating back to 1855,
hurricane researchers say they have uncovered an ongoing rise in the
number of Atlantic
hurricanes that tracks the
increase in sea surface temperature related to climate change.
A group
of climatologists at Georgia Tech claim that a rise in sea surface temperatures over the last 30 years is «directly linked» to
increases in the
number of intense
hurricanes.
In the Bay
of Biscay, the model predicts the average
number of yearly
hurricanes will
increase from one to six (Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/kv2).
The Sheffield scientists have shown that the rise in ocean temperatures has caused an
increase in the
number of severe
hurricanes and typhoons, such as
Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005, and Typhoon Haiyan, which caused massive destruction in the Philippines in 2013.
Severe
hurricanes, storm surges and an
increase in the
number of icebergs are just some
of the changes planet Earth has experienced due to warming oceans over the last 20 years, according to a new report.
In contrast, the above article points out that ``... Whereas the
number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin tend to drop (~ 50 %) during El Nino years, the
number of typhoons tend to
increase in the Pacific.»
These relationships have been reinforced by findings
of a large
increase in
numbers and proportion
of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5 globally since 1970 even as total
number of cyclones and cyclone days decreased slightly in most basins.
In addition to the rise in major
hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, the average
number of named
hurricanes each year has
increased to about seven storms from five storms, though the exact reasons for this rise are still the subject
of research.
La Niña's are also like snowflakes so its impacts are still uncertain, though they could include an
increased number of Atlantic
hurricanes, as well as cool and wet conditions during the winter in the Pacific Northwest.
ref The
number of strong
hurricanes (category 4 and 5)
increased by about 75 % since 1970 with largest
increases observed in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans.
Most scientists expect the
increase in the
number of strong
hurricanes as the climate warms to be at the expense
of smaller ones, meaning fewer overall.
Researchers speculate that the
increase of heartworm positive cases in Canada is due to dogs coming up from the US to be adopted here in Canada, these dogs specifically after
hurricane Katrina helped to
increase the
numbers in Canada significantly.
We are already stretched thin this month... and with the
increased number of dogs from the
hurricanes, the never ending stream
of kittens being brought to us daily, and the unexpected litter
of puppies dumped in the trash, we need your help more than ever.
Shelters from Florida to the Carolinas are accepting
increased numbers of stray dogs and cats after the
hurricane.
With the ever -
increasing number of floods,
hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes and wildfires, AKC Reunite is helping communities across the nation prepare by mobilizing AKC Pet Disaster Relief.
If I remember correctly I have read a statement somewhere that there have bean an
increase of strong
hurricanes over the Atlantic, do you have any
numbers of that?
Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100 - year trend leading to related
increases of over 0.78 C in SST and over 100 % in tropical cyclone and
hurricane numbers.
The current Landsea / Trenberth / Emanuel discussion has been parsed by many to mean that Landsea claims that the
number of hurricanes is constant, and Trenberth is claiming that their intensity should
increase as global warming heats the ocean surface.
... since the mainstream view, to the extent that such exists on the topic
of hurricanes in the Atlantic, would seem to be that the
number of hurricanes will not
increase, but the intensity
of the strongest storms will.
(As mentioned in the paper, when downscaling the GFDL CM2.1 model, rather than the ensemble mean, the
number of hurricanes stays roughly unchanged by the end
of the 21st century, and we see a substantial
increase in the strongest model storms, those that exceed the surface pressure criterion for category 3.
At the end
of their comment # 27 the authors state «Turning to very important question
of the frequency
of the strongest storms, it is entirely possible that a large
increase in category 4 - 5 storms will result from
increasing greenhouse gases, despite an overall reduction in
hurricane numbers.
In contrast, the above article points out that ``... Whereas the
number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin tend to drop (~ 50 %) during El Nino years, the
number of typhoons tend to
increase in the Pacific.»
Whereas the
number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin tend to drop (~ 50 %) during El Niño years, the
number of typhoons tend to
increase in the Pacific.
Further, we found the SST
increases alone since 1982 (the start
of the high resolution SST data) can not explain all
of the
increase in the
number of major
hurricanes.
In my opinion, a possible global climate change - induced
increase of a percent or two here or there in the
number of tornadoes /
hurricanes / * enter your favorite hazard here * is orders
of magnitude smaller (in terms
of a problem) in comparison to vulnerability issues.
Webster et al. (2005)(Sept. 16) found in all ocean basins «a large
increase... in the
number and proportion
of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5.»
Most likely we are already committed to at least some
of these climate changes, and even if the models are wrong and these
increased numbers of intense
hurricanes fail to emerge in the future, Knutson and his colleagues believe that society still needs to work harder at minimizing the damage
hurricanes cause.
That paper's projection
of increased hurricane damage is consistent with numerous scientific studies that project
increasing numbers of the most destructive
hurricanes.»
By 2100 the
number of hurricanes could drop by up to a third, but the average intensity
of the storm could
increase by as much as 11 %.
If so, this is one way in which global warming may end up causing a decrease in Atlantic
hurricane activity over the coming decades, since the
increased wind shear over the Atlantic during El Niño events greatly reduces the
number and intensity
of these storms.»
This shift will
increase the
number of very severe storms, with one
of the studies predicting a possible doubling
of Atlantic category 4 and 5
hurricanes by the end
of the 21st century.
For instance, globally there has been a more than threefold
increase in loss - related floods since 1980 and more than double the
number of windstorm natural catastrophes, with particularly heavy losses as a result
of Atlantic
hurricanes.
The
number of the strongest storms, Category 4 and 5
hurricanes, will likely
increase over the coming century, according to the latest National Climate Assessment.
A report in The Sunday Times on 24 January claimed that the United Nations climate science panel (IPCC) wrongly linked global warming to an
increase in the
number and severity
of natural disasters such as
hurricanes and floods.
There has been a substantial
increase in most measures
of Atlantic
hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high quality satellite data are available.20, 21,22 These include measures
of intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the
number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms.
Numerous studies in recent years have found no evidence that the
number of hurricanes and their northwest Pacific Ocean cousins, typhoons, is
increasing because
of the rise in global temperatures.
This suggests that the annual
number of hurricanes will continue to
increase as a result
of global warming, says Mann.
Worldwide there will likely be an average
increase in the maximum wind speed
of tropical cyclones (
hurricanes and typhoons)
of 2 to 11 %.6 Because
of the way extremes respond to changes such as these, Category 4 and 5
hurricanes are expected to nearly double in
number by the end
of the century.7 The rate
of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones, an important factor in flooding, is expected to
increase approximately 20 % within 100 km
of the center
of these storms.8
While there has been a recent
increase in the
number of landfalling US
hurricanes, the
increase in tropical cyclone - associated heavy events is much higher than would be expected from the pre-1994 association between the two, indicating that the upward trend in heavy precipitation events is due to an
increase in the
number of heavy precipitation events per system.
There has been a substantial
increase in most measures
of Atlantic
hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high - quality satellite data are available.13, 14,15,16,17 These include measures
of intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the
number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms.
Not only is there more property and infrastructure to damage, but the average amount
of personal belongings has also
increased, i.e., the
number of cars, TVs, and other items which can be damaged by
hurricanes is much greater now than it would have been in the early 20th century.
When Pielke et al., 2008 «normalized» the reported damages for the 1926 Great Miami
Hurricane to account for the
increases in population,
numbers of housing units and average wealth per person, they calculated that it would probably have cost about $ 150 billion damage if it struck in 2005.
While the best analyses to date4, 3 suggest an
increase in intensity and in the
number of the most intense
hurricanes over this century, there remain significant uncertainties.
While the
number of hurricanes has not been
increasing, the severity
of hurricanes has been on the rise.