In the meantime, Keenlyside and colleagues plan to incorporate
the increased ocean observations from the last 10 years into their forecast system.
Not exact matches
The reports also identifies other challenges that impact sustained
observations, such as the declining investment in new technological development,
increasing difficulty in retaining and replenishing the human resources associated with sustained
ocean observing, and a decreasing number of global and
ocean - class research vessels.
The collection of larger than usual amounts of Arctic winter weather data in 2015 was due to two reasons: the Norwegian research vessel Lance was in the Arctic
Ocean observing and collecting upper atmosphere meteorological data, and the frequency of
observation and data collection was
increased at some of the land - based
observation stations around the Arctic.
«Warm summers could weaken
ocean circulation: Long - term
observations reveal the influence of
increased surface freshening on convection in the subpolar North Atlantic.»
Combining satellite
observations with
ocean numerical modeling, Khazendar and his colleagues developed a hypothesis that reductions in the volume of brine would
increase Totten's thinning and melting.
From 1966 to 2003 the modeled mean world
ocean temperature in the upper 700 m increased 0.097 Â °C and by 0.137 Â °C according to observations (Levitus et al., 2005); the modeled mean temperature adjusted for sea ice in the corresponding layer of the Arctic Ocean increased 0.203
ocean temperature in the upper 700 m
increased 0.097 Â °C and by 0.137 Â °C according to
observations (Levitus et al., 2005); the modeled mean temperature adjusted for sea ice in the corresponding layer of the Arctic
Ocean increased 0.203
Ocean increased 0.203 Â °C.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1 Global satellite
observations show the sea surface temperature (SST)
increasing since the 1970s in all
ocean basins, while the net air — sea heat flux Q decreases.
The decrease over the last 20 years is well substantiated by
observation and is indistinguishable from the calculated decline assuming that the surface
ocean is in near thermodynamic equilibrium with
increasing CO2 concentration of the atmosphere.
Least unexpected
observations: (Joint winners) 2008 near - record minima in Arctic sea ice extent, last decade of record warmth, long term
increases in
ocean heat content, record
increases in CO2 emissions.
The global
increase in
ocean heat content during the period 1993 to 2003 in two
ocean models constrained by assimilating altimetric sea level and other
observations (Carton et al., 2005; Köhl et al., 2006) is considerably larger than these observational estimates.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of
increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising mean sea level.
Simulations and
observations of total atmospheric water vapour averaged over
oceans agree closely when the simulations are constrained by observed SSTs, suggesting that anthropogenic influence has contributed to an
increase in total atmospheric water vapour.
His description should be read for details, but the essence of the evidence lies in the
observation that
ocean heat uptake (OHC) has been
increasing during the post-1950 warming.
The key
observation here is the
increase in
ocean heat content over the last half century (the figure below shows three estimates of the changes since 1955).
Since OHC uptake efficiency associated with surface warming is low compared with the rate of radiative restoring (
increase in energy loss to space as specified by the climate feedback parameter), an important internal contribution must lead to a loss rather than a gain of
ocean heat; thus the
observation of OHC
increase requires a dominant role for external forcing.
In addition to warming, the
observations regarding ice melt could also be related to
increased ocean salinity.
Least unexpected
observations: (Joint winners) 2006 near - record minima in Arctic sea ice extent, near - record maxima in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resumed
increase in
ocean heat content, record
increases in CO2 emissions
And I do think there are a number of questions about interpretation of
observations, and the details of the climate model experiment (the very large exponentially
increasing freshwater fluxes, the low - resolution of the
ocean which obscures the potentially important role of wind - driven
ocean gyres, etc.).
... a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades — unprecedented in
observations / reanalysis data and not captured by climate models — is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through
increased subsurface
ocean heat uptake.
But the evidence of a connection between warming
ocean waters and greenhouse gas
increases is compelling and consistent with theory and
observations.
Abstract:... Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades — unprecedented in
observations / reanalysis data and not captured by climate models — is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through
increased subsurface
ocean heat uptake.
From 1966 to 2003 the modeled mean world
ocean temperature in the upper 700 m increased 0.097 Â °C and by 0.137 Â °C according to observations (Levitus et al., 2005); the modeled mean temperature adjusted for sea ice in the corresponding layer of the Arctic Ocean increased 0.203
ocean temperature in the upper 700 m
increased 0.097 Â °C and by 0.137 Â °C according to
observations (Levitus et al., 2005); the modeled mean temperature adjusted for sea ice in the corresponding layer of the Arctic
Ocean increased 0.203
Ocean increased 0.203 Â °C.
eg pg xii To improve our predictive capability, we need: • to understand better the various climate - related processes, particularly those associated with clouds,
oceans and the carbon cycle • to improve the systematic
observation of climate - related variables on a global basis, and further investigate changes which took place in the past • to develop improved models of the Earth's climate system • to
increase support for national and international climate research activities, especially in developing countries • to facilitate international exchange of climate data
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of
increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.
Observations in the tropical Atlantic
ocean (11) show that the clear sky downwelling infrared flux incident on the surface (Fa ---RRB- also
increases faster than the surface emission with
increasing SST.
One of the things pointed out in that post is that we know that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is entirely caused by fossil fuel burning and deforestation because many independent
observations show that the carbon content has also
increased in the
ocean.
A main control on atmospheric CO2 appears to be the
ocean surface temperature, and remains a possibility that a significant part of the overall
increase of atmospheric CO2 since at least 1958 (start of Mauna Loa
observations) simply relflects the gradual warming of the
oceans as a result of the prolonged period of high solar activity since 1920 (Solanki et al., 2004).
David, isn't the gist of what Salby is saying is that the atmospheric
increases in CO2 are due to the gas coming out of the
oceans, and here we are discussing the
observation that the pH of the
oceans are decreasing because CO2 is dissolving in them?
On the other hand, an
increase caused by humans, where
oceans and vegetation together act as sinks for about halve the emissions, complies with all known
observations.
The global
increase in
ocean heat content during the period 1993 to 2003 in two
ocean models constrained by assimilating altimetric sea level and other
observations (Carton et al., 2005; Köhl et al., 2006) is considerably larger than these observational estimates.
«However, the decrease in reflected SW radiation from the 1980s to the 1990s may be inconsistent with the
increase in total and low cloud cover over
oceans reported by surface
observations (Norris, 2005a), which show
increased low cloud occurrence.
Improved
ocean observation, instrumentation, theory, and funding has
increased scientific reporting on regional and global issues related to heat.
Christy is correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than
observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is because over the past decade virtually every natural influence on global temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising aerosols emissions, and
increased heat storage in the deep
oceans).
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of
increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising mean sea level.
The point is that this
observation is not very relevant if the outcome comes from a combination of relevant and persistently warming data from areas where the temperature is strongly correlated with
increase in the heat content of
oceans, atmosphere and continental topmost layers, and almost totally irrelevant data from areas and seasons where and when exceptionally great natural variability of surface temperatures makes these temperatures essentially irrelevant for the determination of longterm trends.
Remember that as well as all the above I have also provided measurements and peer reviewed
observations of CO2
increasing into the
oceans.
About the
observations: — any extra input from the
oceans would
increase the 13C / 12C ratio in the atmosphere, but we observe a an accellerating decrease in perfect ratio with fossil fuel burning.
(1) there is established scientific concern over warming of the climate system based upon evidence from
observations of
increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level;
However, the
observations show that both surface temperatures as well as
ocean heat content started to
increase (during the 1970's and 80's) long after solar activity had reached its plateau (during the 1950's).
US CLIVAR is collaborating with the
ocean carbon and biogeochemistry science community to
increase observations and understanding of the coupled physical / biogeochemical processes that maintain the marine ecosystem and oceanic sources and sinks of carbon and predict how they will evolve in response to climate variability and change.
Including a match with other
observations like the mass balance, the 13C / 12C and 14C / 12C trends, the oxygen balance, the
increase of carbon species in the
ocean surface and vegetation, etc...
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140202111055.htm «The satellite
observations have shown that warming of the tropical Indian
Ocean and tropical Western Pacific
Ocean — with resulting
increased precipitation and water vapor there — causes the opposite effect of cooling in the TTL region above the warming sea surface.
Observations showing that the skin (top tens of um) of the
ocean is usually colder than the water below convincing demonstrate that
increasing DLR will warm the upper
ocean and that Hypothesis A and B are untenable.
A wide range of other
observations (such as reduced Arctic sea ice extent and
increased ocean heat content) and indications from the natural world (such as poleward shifts of temperature - sensitive species of fish, mammals, insects, etc.) together provide incontrovertible evidence of planetary - scale warming.
It's an
observation that is not explained if the source of the
increase of atmospheric CO2 comes from the
oceans.
The barystatic sea level rise, the actual
increasing volume of the
ocean, in particular, is masked from measurements that are based on satellite
observations.
They report in the journal Science that a succession of aerial surveys combined with multiple satellite
observations has established that the base of the glacier is being eroded rapidly by a mix of warmer
ocean water and
increasing amounts of meltwater from the surface of the Greenland ice sheet.
«Whilst the last decade has seen a rapid
increase in good
observations of the surface and upper
ocean, thanks to Argo floats, we have very few for the deep
ocean.»
Observations since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global
ocean has
increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the
ocean has been absorbing more than 80 % of the heat added to the climate system.
-- First we
increase the greenhouse gases — then that causes warming in the atmosphere and
oceans — as the
oceans warm up, they evaporate more H2O — more moisture in the air means more precipitation (rain, snow)-- the southern hemisphere is essentially lots of water and a really big ice cube in the middle called Antarctica — land ice is different than sea ice — climate models indicated that more snowfall would cause
increases in the frozen H2O — climate models indicated that there would be initial
increases in sea ice extent —
observations confirm the indications and expectations that precipitation is
increasing, calving rates are accelerating and sea ice extent is
increasing.