Although this year's ozone loss has been unprecedented, it was not unexpected - scientists had predicted that such cold conditions in the stratosphere would lead to
increased ozone loss.
Some climate models suggest that increasing greenhouse gases may be leading to a gradual strengthening of the Arctic vortex and hence
increasing ozone losses, while others do not.
Some climate models suggest that increasing greenhouse gases may be leading to a gradual strengthening of the Arctic vortex and hence
increasing ozone losses, while others do not.
Not exact matches
Clearly Antarctica is supposed to warm in the future as greenhouse levels
increase (and
ozone loss decreases), but it is unclear just how it should be behaving to date.
The
increasing depleation of
ozone over the Pole regions, Real Climate (6 May 2005) Record Artic Ozone Loss, has at least coincided with decreased temperatures, comment 5, and increased snow falls in the Antartic continents interior, New Scientist (28 May 2005) in Brief, p
ozone over the Pole regions, Real Climate (6 May 2005) Record Artic
Ozone Loss, has at least coincided with decreased temperatures, comment 5, and increased snow falls in the Antartic continents interior, New Scientist (28 May 2005) in Brief, p
Ozone Loss, has at least coincided with decreased temperatures, comment 5, and
increased snow falls in the Antartic continents interior, New Scientist (28 May 2005) in Brief, p. 17.
He also cautions that the 2005 numbers are still preliminary, however there is a clear trend towards
increasing potential for Arctic
ozone loss, which is realised or not depending on the vagaries of each individual winter.
Increased polar stratospheric
ozone losses and delayed eventual recovery owing to
increasing greenhouse - gas concentration.
Hence, the chemical
loss has been balanced by transport, such that in spring 1999/2000 the
ozone layer above the Arctic has still been as thin as it always is in fall, in contrast to the normal seasonal
increase of the thickness of the
ozone layer during winter.
He also cautions that the 2005 numbers are still preliminary, however there is a clear trend towards
increasing potential for Arctic
ozone loss, which is realised or not depending on the vagaries of each individual winter.
Markus Rex graphs shows a linear trend for the
increasing PSC volume, and the left y axis the POTENTIAL
OZONE LOSS (not the measured one, am I right?)
, lightning related insurance claims, Lyme disease, Malaria, malnutrition, Maple syrup shortage, marine diseases, marine food chain decimated, Meaching (end of the world), megacryometeors, Melanoma, methane burps, melting permafrost, migration, microbes to decompose soil carbon more rapidly, more bad air days, more research needed, mountains break up, mudslides, next ice age, Nile delta damaged, no effect in India, nuclear plants bloom, ocean acidification, outdoor hockey threatened, oyster diseases,
ozone loss,
ozone repair slowed,
ozone rise, pests
increase, plankton blooms, plankton
loss, plant viruses, polar tours scrapped, psychosocial disturbances, railroad tracks deformed, rainfall
increase, rainfall reduction, refugees, release of ancient frozen viruses, resorts disappear, rift on Capitol Hill, rivers raised, rivers dry up, rockfalls, rocky peaks crack apart, Ross river disease, salinity reduction, Salmonella, sea level rise, sex change, ski resorts threatened, smog, snowfall
increase, snowfall reduction, societal collapse, songbirds change eating habits, sour grapes, spiders invade Scotland, squid population explosion, spectacular orchids, tectonic plate movement, ticks move northward (Sweden), tides rise, tree beetle attacks, tree foliage
increase (UK), tree growth slowed, trees less colourful, trees more colourful, tropics expansion, tsunamis, Venice flooded, volcanic eruptions, walrus pups orphaned, wars over water, water bills double, water supply unreliability, water scarcity (20 % of
increase), weeds, West Nile fever, whales move north, wheat yields crushed in Australia, white Christmas dream ends, wildfires, wine — harm to Australian industry, wine industry damage (California), wine industry disaster (US), wine — more English, wine — no more French, wind shift, winters in Britain colder, wolves eat more moose, wolves eat less, workers laid off, World bankruptcy, World in crisis, Yellow fever.
Increasing greenhouse gases may therefore be at least partly responsible for the very large Arctic
ozone losses in recent winters, and the situation may worsen in the future.
The combination of these two cooling effects causes dramatically
increased ozone depletion so that
ozone loss in the Arctic by the year 2020 is roughly double what it would be without greenhouse gas
increases.
Increased polar stratospheric
ozone losses and delayed eventual recovery due to
increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
Unions for Jobs and the Environment (UJAE), an organization of 12 national and international labor unions, including the United Mine Workers, the Teamsters and the Sheet Metal Workers, thinks the
ozone revision «would lead to significant job
losses across the country during a period of high unemployment, due to the significant
increase in the number of counties classified as nonattainment.»
States that several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric
ozone depletion, local sea - ice
loss, an
increase in westerly winds, and changes in the strength and location of low — high - latitude atmospheric teleconnections
If this happens during northern winter, surface pressure falls in the Arctic (rising AO) the night jet stalls, NOx injection falls away, stratospheric
ozone levels
increase, the coupled circulation is invigorated and pressure falls at 50 - 60 ° north and this is associated with cloud
loss (when global cloud cover is at its maximum value) and a strong rise in global sea surface temperature.
Ozone loss in the stratosphere and the consequent
increase in penetration of UV into the upper troposphere tends to reduce the differential between the atmospheric pressure in the stationary high pressure cell East of Chile and the low over Indonesia tending to move the atmosphere towards a constant El Nino orientation.
«Although stratospheric
ozone losses are expected to stabilize and eventually recover to preindustrial levels over the course of the twenty - first century, these results show that
increasing greenhouse gases will continue to intensify the polar vortex throughout the twenty - first century, but that radiative forcing will cause widespread temperature
increases over the entire Southern Hemisphere.»
Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric
ozone depletion, local sea - ice
loss, an
increase in westerly winds, and changes in the strength and location of low — high - latitude atmospheric teleconnections.
UV dosage levels in summer:
increased risk of
ozone loss from convectively injected water vapor
Models suggest that both the
loss of
ozone (the
ozone hole that occurs in September / October every year) and
increases in greenhouse gases lead to an
increase in frequency of this climate pattern.
They warned that the
loss of
ozone would significantly
increase the amount of skin - damaging ultraviolet UV - B light reaching the surface, greatly
increasing skin cancer and cataracts.
Increased water vapor in the stratosphere makes it warmer on the ground by trapping heat, while the
ozone loss makes it colder on the ground.
They calculated that if CFC production continued to
increase at the going rate of 10 % / year until 1990, then remain steady, CFCs would cause a global 5 to 7 percent
ozone loss by 1995 and 30 - 50 %
loss by 2050.
Shindell, D.T., D. Rind, and P. Lonergan, 1998:
Increased polar stratospheric
ozone losses and delayed eventual recovery owing to
increasing greenhouse - gas concentrations.
At some sites about half of this
increase can be attributed to
ozone loss.
These models may well be significantly affected by
increases in marine boundary layer
ozone loss, but since they have only just started to be used to simulate 20th and early 21st Century changes, it is very unclear what difference it will make at the large scale.
Lu's predictions for
increased polar
ozone loss in 2008/2009 as a function of the low solar activity (and therefore higher CR flux) did not come to pass.