Some point to aerosols (but that is not very plausible, as that should give an increase since 1975 for Europe and in part for North America), but I have the impression that
increased water vapour levels are at the base of this change.
Not exact matches
Water vapour levels in the stratosphere
increased in the 1990s but dropped by 10 per cent in 2001.
Source: Lyman 2010 The reaction of the oceans to climate change are some of the most profound across the entire environment, including disruption of the ocean food chain through chemical changes caused by CO2, the ability of the sea to absorb CO2 being limited by temperature
increases, (and the potential to expel sequestered CO2 back into the atmosphere as the
water gets hotter), sea -
level rise due to thermal expansion, and the amount of
water vapour in the atmosphere.
Scientists agree that a doubling of atmospheric CO2
levels could result in temperature
increases of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C, caused by rapid changes such as snow and ice melt, and the behaviour of clouds and
water vapour.
As I understand all models they all predict a
water vapour based forcing caused by
increased temperatures leading to
increased levels of
water vapour and hence an
increased greenhouse effect.
(c) The
level of
water vapour depends on the global temperature, so it is roughly fixed until something else warms the atmosphere when it
increases in amount producing more warming.
However, you have avoided my last comment that without a positive feedback from
water vapour there is no chance of runaway global warming arising from
increasing atmospheric CO2
levels.
These effects are relatively well understood in the lowest
level of the atmosphere, the troposphere, where
increased warming leads to greater evaporation, causing more
water vapour and so further warming, although this is offset to some extent through the formation of clouds that reflect incoming sunlight back into space.
As the planet warms,
increasing levels of
water vapour in the atmosphere caused by higher evaporation
levels form more clouds and snow
increasing the albedo of the planet, reflecting heat back into space more efficiently, thus working to regulate the temperature downward.
Source: Lyman 2010 The reaction of the oceans to climate change are some of the most profound across the entire environment, including disruption of the ocean food chain through chemical changes caused by CO2, the ability of the sea to absorb CO2 being limited by temperature
increases, (and the potential to expel sequestered CO2 back into the atmosphere as the
water gets hotter), sea -
level rise due to thermal expansion, and the amount of
water vapour in the atmosphere.
It is my contention (and that of many others) that in fact this is the default null hypothesis and until proponents of the anthropogenic global warming hyothesis come up with some better evidence to back up their claims of imminent dangerous warming driven by co2 and a
water vapour feedback to its
increasing levels, the null hypothesis is the best one we have.
[44] a reduction of 1/7 of the
water vapour content of the air near 300 mbar pushes down by a factor 1 / (1-1/7) 4.7 = 1.03 the P80 %
level and the P80 % temperature
increases by a factor 1.030.19 = 1.006 that is by about 1.5 K for the radiation temperature over the far infrared spectral range
That
increases the CO2
levels near the sea surface (but that is readlily dispersed by convection, as good as the
water vapour).
Based on chemical transport model studies, the RF from the
increase in stratospheric
water vapour due to oxidation of CH4 is estimated to be +0.07 [± 0.05] W m — 2, with a low
level of scientific understanding.
It is also very likely that
increasing water vapour beyond normal, stable
levels leads to various negative feedbacks.
It is well known that a doubling of atmospheric CO2
levels could result in temperature
increases of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C, due to fast changes such as snow and ice melt, and the behaviour of clouds and
water vapour.
Total
water vapour in the atmosphere may
increase as the temperature of the surface rises, but if at the same time the mid - to upper -
level concentration decreases then
water vapour feedback will be negative.
Lindzen doesn't really separate them, he talks about low
level cloud feedbacks as being one of the major negative feedbacks that would accrue from
increased water vapour and is still consistently saying the same thing.
The models (and there are many) have numerous common behaviours — they all cool following a big volcanic eruption, like that at Mount Pinatubo in 1991; they all warm as
levels of greenhouse gases are
increased; they show the same relationships connecting
water vapour and temperature that we see in observations; and they can quantify how the giant lakes left over from the Ice Age may have caused a rapid cooling across the North Atlantic as they drained and changed ocean circulation patterns.