The studies involved conclude that the minor
increases in global temperatures during this period can be entirely explained using natural factors.
That increase is comparable to
the increase in global temperature during the 20th century of about 0.6 °C.
There, to Nicol's amazement he found nothing apart from the oft quoted: «We believe that most of
the increase in global temperatures during the second half of the 20th century was very likely due to increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide».
Not exact matches
There are three main time scales to consider when it comes to warming: annual
temperature variation from factors like warming
in the Pacific Ocean
during El Niño years, decadal
temperature swings and long - term
temperature increases from
global warming.
A recent report by two leading nonprofits, the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council, details how the 11 U.S. western states together have experienced an
increase in average
temperature during the last five years some 70 percent greater than the
global average rise.
The
increase in carbon dioxide levels recorded so far has played the most important role
in pushing average
global temperatures up by 1 °C (1.8 °F)
during the last 200 years.
Global warming is desiccating the region
in two ways: higher
temperatures that
increase evaporation
in already parched soils, and weaker winds that bring less rain from the Mediterranean Sea
during the wet season (November to April).
The agency last week warned
in a report that more people will die
during heat waves, freshwater supplies will shrink, and diseases will spread
in coming years, among other impacts of
increasing global temperatures.
Abstract — James L. Crowley — 12 November 2010 Effects of Rapid
Global Warming at the Paleocene - Eocene Boundary on Neotropical Vegetation
Temperatures in tropical regions are estimated to have
increased by 3 ° to 5 °C, compared with Late Paleocene values,
during the Paleocene - Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56.3 million years ago)......... eastern Colombia and western Venezuela.
As a consequence, their results are strongly influenced by the low
increase in observed warming
during the past decade (about 0.05 °C / decade
in the 1998 — 2012 period compared to about 0.12 °C / decade from 1951 to 2012, see IPCC 2013), and therewith possibly also by the incomplete coverage of
global temperature observations (Cowtan and Way 2013).
The researchers analysed resting and active jumping oxygen consumption rates
in snails exposed to seawater at the normal
temperature of 29 °C and at the
increased temperature of 34 °C, projected to be reached
during the next 100 years due to
global warming.
In the central United States, for example, observational data indicate that rainfall increased, surface air temperature decreased, and surface humidity increased during the summer over the course of the 20th century concurrently with increases in both agricultural production and global GHG emission
In the central United States, for example, observational data indicate that rainfall
increased, surface air
temperature decreased, and surface humidity
increased during the summer over the course of the 20th century concurrently with
increases in both agricultural production and global GHG emission
in both agricultural production and
global GHG emissions.
Terrell Johnson, reporting on a recent NASA publication concluding that deep ocean
temperatures have not
increased since 2005 (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/deep-ocean-hasnt-warmed-nasa-20141007): «While the report's authors say the findings do not question the overall science of climate change, it is the latest
in a series of findings that show
global warming to have slowed considerably
during the 21st century, despite continued rapid growth
in human - produced greenhouse gas emissions
during the same time.»
«We also present a set of
global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand
increases nonlinearly with
temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster
in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming,
increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery.
Increases in Asian aerosol emissions have been suggested as one possible reason for the hiatus
in global temperature increase during the past 15 years.
Had climate skeptics been editorializing about
global climate
in 1974 they would have taken every opportunity to point out to Plass that
global temperature had not
increased during the 18 years since Plass's 1956 paper.
Even as shorter trends, CO2 content
in atmosphere follow
global temperature trends and not visa versa, for instance
during glasials and interglasial, including even the current interglasial Holocene, as I already
in my comment above stated concerning the recent
increase of CO2 content
in atmosphere.
On balance the evidence shows that solar and oceanic variations are more likely the cause of recent observations of warming
in the air than
increasing CO2
in the air but the issue can soon be resolved by observing the
global air
temperature changes that occur
during and after the extended cycle 23 and the probable weak cycle 24.
Also recognizable are numerous apparently natural climate variations, for example, strong temporary cooling
in the North Atlantic from the 1950s through the 1970s, which contributed to the lack of
global - mean
temperature increase during that time.
During that same period, average annual rainfall
in New South Wales declined by 3.6 inches (92 millimeters).3 Scientists think the decline
in autumn rainfall
in southeast Australia since the late 1950s may be partly due to
increases in heat - trapping gases
in Earth's atmosphere.3, 14 Major bushfires over southeast Australia are linked to the positive phase of an ocean cycle called the «Indian Ocean Dipole» — when sea surface
temperatures are warmer than average
in the western Indian Ocean, likely
in response to
global warming.15, 16
3)
In my comment https://judithcurry.com/2011/08/04/carbon-cycle-questions/#comment-198992 I have explained that during recent three decades the increase of CO2 content in atmosphere is controlled by the rising temperature of global sea surfac
In my comment https://judithcurry.com/2011/08/04/carbon-cycle-questions/#comment-198992 I have explained that
during recent three decades the
increase of CO2 content
in atmosphere is controlled by the rising temperature of global sea surfac
in atmosphere is controlled by the rising
temperature of
global sea surface.
«A peer - reviewed paper [Krivova et al.] published
in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant
increase since the Maunder minimum
in the 1600's
during the Little Ice Age and shows further
increases over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2
increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C
global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum
increased by almost 50 % over the 400 years since the Maunder minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
published
in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant
increase since the Maunder minimum
in the 1600's
during the Little Ice Age and shows further
increases over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2
increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C
global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum
increased by almost 50 % over the 400 years since the Maunder minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
Editors of the study conclude anthropogenic (manmade) greenhouse gases (GHG) «are not playing a substantial role»
in global temperature increases during the past century, contrary to IPCC claims that human activities are to blame.
If this happens
during northern winter, surface pressure falls
in the Arctic (rising AO) the night jet stalls, NOx injection falls away, stratospheric ozone levels
increase, the coupled circulation is invigorated and pressure falls at 50 - 60 ° north and this is associated with cloud loss (when
global cloud cover is at its maximum value) and a strong rise
in global sea surface
temperature.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
global-warming/
temperature-change «CO2 - forced climate thresholds
during the Phanerozoic» «Climate Sensitivity in the Geologic Past» «Synchronous Change of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature During the Last Deglacial Warming» «Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation&
during the Phanerozoic» «Climate Sensitivity
in the Geologic Past» «Synchronous Change of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic
Temperature During the Last Deglacial Warming» «Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation&
During the Last Deglacial Warming» «
Global warming preceded by
increasing carbon dioxide concentrations
during the last deglaciation&
during the last deglaciation»
The surface air
temperature increase in the southwestern United States was much larger
during the last few decades than the
increase in the
global mean.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but
in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that
in last years land
temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse
global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but,
in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part
in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands»
temperatures are often measured
in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a
global uncertainity
in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters»
temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities
temperature trends actually show an
increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the
global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things:
increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live
in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air
during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI
in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but,
in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least
in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough
in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small
global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
Despite these reclassifications, the general conclusions are similar from previous work: (1)
global temperature anomalies for each phase (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral) have been
increasing over time and (2) on average,
global temperatures during El Niño years are higher than neutral years, which
in turn, are higher than La Niña years.
But this was
during a time of comparatively slow
global temperature increase at the rate of about 0.05 C per Century — not the current rate
in the range of 1.5 to 2 C per Century, which is 30 to 40 times faster.
Paleoclimatological Context and Reference Level of the 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris Agreement Long - Term
Temperature Limits The Paris Agreement adopted in December 2015 during the COP21 conference stipulates that the increase in the global average temperature is to be kept well below 2 °C above «pre-industrial levels» and that efforts are pursued to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above «pre-industrial lev
Temperature Limits The Paris Agreement adopted
in December 2015
during the COP21 conference stipulates that the
increase in the
global average
temperature is to be kept well below 2 °C above «pre-industrial levels» and that efforts are pursued to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above «pre-industrial lev
temperature is to be kept well below 2 °C above «pre-industrial levels» and that efforts are pursued to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5 °C above «pre-industrial lev
temperature increase to 1.5 °C above «pre-industrial levels.»
And so, over the decade, alarmist climate scientists tried to fool the public by stonewalling («it's the warmest decade on record,» which doesn't mean the decade was warming), denying the facts («the allegation that annual
global mean
temperatures stopped
increasing during the past decade has no basis
in reality»), or outright lying («the world is warming even more quickly than we had thought»).
``... results cast some doubts
in the use of homogenization procedures and tend to indicate that the
global temperature increase during the last century is between 0.4 °C and 0.7 °C...»
«bserved
increases in ocean heat content (OHC) and
temperature are robust indicators of
global warming
during the past several decades.
During the 1950s and 1960s, average
global temperatures levelled off, as
increases in aerosols from fossil fuels and other sources cooled the planet.
The confusion resulting from skewing trends is summarized
in a recent study that concluded their «results cast some doubts
in the use of homogenization procedures and tend to indicate that the
global temperature increase during the last century is between 0.4 °C and 0.7 °C, where these two values are the estimates derived from raw and adjusted data, respectively.»
So the climatologists are not crazy to say that the positive feedback
in the
global - warming dynamic can lead to a factor of 3
in the final
increase of
temperature: That can be true, even though this feedback wasn't able to cook the Earth
during previous periods of high CO2.
As expected,
global temperatures have been
increasing in a sporadic fashion since the end of the Little Ice Age
during the 1800's.
So, based on these peer reviewed and generally accepted numbers, 20th century sea levels rose at a 25 % slower rate
in the second half of the century than the first which, on any reasonable interpretation, contradicts the notion that
global temperature increases during the last 50 years contributed to any sea level rise!»
And seems to me that this large
increase of 2 C
in global temperatures would probably include arctic polar ice melting
in summer, so as to allow ice free travel
in arctic
during most summers.
«Working with data pertaining to 7450 cardiovascular - related deaths that occurred within Budapest, Hungary, between 1995 and 2004 — where the deceased were «medico - legally autopsied» — Toro et al. looked for potential relationships between daily maximum, minimum and mean
temperature, air humidity, air pressure, wind speed,
global radiation and daily numbers of the heart - related deaths... scientists report and restate their primary finding numerous times throughout their paper, writing that (1) «both the maximum and the minimum daily
temperatures tend to be lower when more death cases occur
in a day,» (2) «on the days with four or more death cases, the daily maximum and minimum
temperatures tend to be lower than on days without any cardiovascular death events,» (3) «the largest frequency of cardiovascular death cases was detected
in cold and cooling weather conditions,» (4) «we found a significant negative relationship between
temperature and cardiovascular mortality,» (5) «the analysis of 6 - hour change of air pressure suggests that more acute or chronic vascular death cases occur
during increasing air pressure conditions (implying cold weather fronts),» (6) «we found a high frequency of cardiovascular death
in cold weather,» (7) «a significant negative relationship was detected between daily maximum [and] minimum
temperature [s] and the number of sudden cardiovascular death cases,» and (8) «a significant negative correlation was detected between daily mean
temperature and cardiovascular mortality.»
In a paper «
Global warming preceded by
increasing carbon dioxide concentrations
during the last deglaciation», Shakun et al. (Nature 2012) contend that rising
temperature at the end of the last Pleistocene glaciation were preceded by
increasing atmospheric CO2.
(Its most recent report,
in 2007, concluded that most of the twentieth - century
increase in global average
temperatures was «very likely» due to human activities, and that world
temperatures could rise between 1.1 and 6.4 °C
during the twenty - first century.)
Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences can not explain the rapid
increase in global near - surface
temperatures observed
during the second half of the 20th century.
«Indeed it is estimated that annual mean
temperature has
increased by over 2 °C
during the last 70 years and precipitation has decreased
in most regions, except the western part of the country, indicating that Mongolia is among the most vulnerable nations
in the world to
global warming.»
However, the available evidence does not indicate pronounced long - term changes
in the Sun's output over the past century,
during which time human - induced
increases in CO2 concentrations have been the dominant influence on the long - term
global surface
temperature increase.
A key example of this balancing process concerns the best value of what is known as the climate sensitivity, that is the
increase in global average
temperature associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that, unless severe mitigating action is taken, is likely to occur
during the second half of the 21st century.
During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus evolved that
increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere cause a substantial rise
in global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system, [149] with consequences for the environment and for human health.
Couple that CO2 reduction with a possible drop of some 0.7 C
in temperatures (assuming for the sake of argument that all
temperature increase during the 20th century was caused by CO2), and the resulting picture
in terms of
global destruction of life might be rather huge.