In JULES, on the other hand, residence time declines with warming when CO2 also increases, yet
increases with warming when CO2 is fixed.
Not exact matches
The list of artists who have unintentionally and unwillingly been associated
with the Donald Trump campaign
increased when Trump used Adele's Rolling in the Deep during a rally as his «
warm - up music.»
Hoerling said the study did not prove that the high - pressure ridge was exceptional
when compared
with pressure
increases taking place across the globe as the planet
warms.
So
when wind pulls
warm water up from down deep, the temperature difference experienced at the interface of the water and ice can effectively submerse the glacier in a hot bath,
with some areas experiencing more than a 10-fold
increase in melt rate.
The clearest impact of
warming on drought is
when higher temperatures cause more evaporation and
increase water demand, as has happened
with this drought.
«The other carbon dioxide problem», «the evil twin of global
warming», or part of a «deadly trio», together
with increasing temperatures and loss of oxygen: Many names have been coined to describe the problem of ocean acidification — a change in the ocean chemistry that occurs
when carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere dissolves in seawater.
For example, if global
warming were due to
increased solar output, we would expect to see all layers of the atmosphere
warm, and more
warming during the day
when the surface is bombarded
with solar radiation than at night.
At the same time,
increasing depth and duration of drought, along
with warmer temperatures enabling the spread of pine beetles has
increased the flammability of this forest region — http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n9/full/nclimate1293.html http://www.vancouversun.com/fires+through+tinder+pine+beetle+killed+forests/10047293/story.html Can climate models give different TCR and ECS
with different timing / extent of
when or how much boreal forest burns, and how the soot generated alters the date of an ice free Arctic Ocean or the rate of Greenland ice melt and its influence on long term dynamics of the AMOC transport of heat?
While their function in the pre-training preparation pales in comparison to a well - rounded dynamic
warm - up routine, static stretches work amazingly well for reducing muscle soreness, maintaining optimal body alignment and
increasing the ability to build muscle
when performed during the post-workout window, especially
when paired
with soft tissue work on the same body areas.
When doing these 5 sets
with 5 reps the first 2 sets should be
warm - up sets progressively
increasing the weight
with the same intervals.
Some people like to use a
warm sock filled
with rice to
increase the blood flow to the ear but I find it cumbersome and annoying to have to use one more item
when testing a cat.
When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface
warming of between 2 °C and 3.5 °C,
with greater
increases at high latitudes.
The first Hansen Op - Ed quote Tom Scharf objects to begins «To the contrary...» so presumably Tom Scharf is more at ease
with what is being disavowed by Hansen
when he said ``... it is no longer enough to say that global
warming will
increase the likelihood of extreme weather... (nor) to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change.»
Last I saw from NOAA was global
warming decreasing numbers but
increasing intensities: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080519134306.htm However the methods and equipment for measuring occurences and intensity have improved so much that we're not exactly comparing apples to apples
when we calibrate today's numbers
with 70 years ago to quantify a correlation, it's effect, and provide a projection.
I would argue that if we use a simple radiative model
with a variety of assumptions, no upper atmosphere cooling but only
warming will occur
with increased CO2 (see # 333), based on the radiative transfer equations and the Second Law of thermodynamics, but
when other complexities are introduced, this might change.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally
increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so
with a
warming due to an
increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (
when it would be
warmer to begin
with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year
when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
We can divide the atmosphere into a lower part (LP), which includes the surface and is the source of IR, and an upper part (UP), which we are asked to assume will cool
when CO2
increases, in conjunction
with the expected
warming of LP from the enhanced greenhouse effect.
The idea of an evaporation thermostat was proposed in the 1970's by Newell, and was based on erroneous reasoning confusing correlation
with causation;
when one does the physics, one finds that evaporation
increases the air - sea coupling, but can't prevent a
warming if the atmosphere itself
warms.
Such is the case for the explanation — popular
with the press
when it was first proposed — that an
increase in aerosol emissions, particularly from China, was acting to help offset the
warming influence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.
But the evidence shows this can't be true; temperature changes before CO2 in every record of any duration for any time period; CO2 variability does not correlate
with temperature at any point in the last 600 million years; atmospheric CO2 levels are currently at the lowest level in that period; in the 20th century most
warming occurred before 1940
when human production of CO2 was very small; human production of CO2
increased the most after 1940 but global temperatures declined to 1985; from 2000 global temperatures declined while CO2 levels
increased; and any reduction in CO2 threatens plant life, oxygen production, and therefore all life on the planet.
So
when you transport enormous amounts of
warm tropical waters to the poles for about 400,000 years, you end up
with ice ages, which after a while may shut down the MOC again, further
increasing the polar cooling, as for instance happened at the Younger Dryas.
It is true that there has been no «statistically significant»
warming in the last 16 (or 15 years) only because
when you deal
with such short data sets the signal to noise ratio decreases, meaning that the 95 % confidence level also
increases.
When we associate years with warming, sea level, and city commitments, we are referencing the 21st century years when the commitments are established through cumulative emissions, not the years farther in the future when the commitments are realized through sustained temperature increases and
When we associate years
with warming, sea level, and city commitments, we are referencing the 21st century years
when the commitments are established through cumulative emissions, not the years farther in the future when the commitments are realized through sustained temperature increases and
when the commitments are established through cumulative emissions, not the years farther in the future
when the commitments are realized through sustained temperature increases and
when the commitments are realized through sustained temperature
increases and SLR.
Indeed, most of the improvements in our climate monitoring abilities occurred after the public interest in «global
warming» began in the late 1980s, i.e.,
when governments began
increasing funding for climate research
with multi-billion dollar research programmes such as the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
A good point as arctic regions that are hit
with warmer water streams will prevent sea ice extent while those
with colder ones can massivly
increase in volume
when the air is cold enough though no growth would be visible from the top down view.
Of course, logic and ethics had no chance
when you were faced
with defending it, since the Hockey Stick graph (the only one reproduced multiple times in color in any IPCC summary) was the primary basis for convincing the Media and Policy Makers that immediate action was needed to offset unprecedented
warming, obviously caused by unprecedented
increase in CO2.
When the earth's temperature rises on average by more than two degrees, interactions between different consequences of global
warming (reduction in the area of arable land, unexpected crop failures, extinction of diverse plant and animal species) combined
with increasing populations mean that hundreds of millions of people may die from starvation or disease in future famines.
In times
when the oceans are
warming, there could be several factors that influence this, each
with varying contributions based on natural and / or anthropogenic variability: 1) Greater solar output 2) Less aerosols in the atmosphere 3) Less cloudiness (especially of a certain type) 4)
Increased greenhouse gases
This period, known as the «last deglaciation,» included episodes of abrupt climate change, such as the Bølling
warming [~ 14.7 — 14.5 ka],
when Northern Hemisphere temperatures
increased by 4 — 5 °C in just a few decades [Lea et al., 2003; Buizert et al., 2014], coinciding
with a 12 — 22 m sea level rise in less than 340 years [5.3 meters per century](Meltwater Pulse 1a (MWP1a)-RRB-[Deschamps et al., 2012].»
The point is that this observation is not very relevant if the outcome comes from a combination of relevant and persistently
warming data from areas where the temperature is strongly correlated
with increase in the heat content of oceans, atmosphere and continental topmost layers, and almost totally irrelevant data from areas and seasons where and
when exceptionally great natural variability of surface temperatures makes these temperatures essentially irrelevant for the determination of longterm trends.
But
when converted to actual temperature
warming, that number,
with all those zeros, equates to about a total of +0.06 °C to +0.07 °C
increase since 1955.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans
warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to
warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water
warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands»
warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters
warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an
increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small
warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things:
increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very
warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison
with 20-40-60 years ago
when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
When the intensity of ultraviolet light from the sun
increases, temperature rises in this ozone rich air and weakens the downdraft, lowers the surface pressure and
with it the strength of the trade winds that blow across the ocean to the low pressure zones that form over the
warm waters that accumulate in the west.
The models are in better agreement
when projecting changes in hurricane precipitation — almost all existing studies project greater rainfall rates in hurricanes in a
warmer climate,
with projected
increases of about 20 % averaged near the center of hurricanes.
He had already been warned on this thread that
when I had earlier answered a legitimate question from a commenter far more polite and sensible than he, I had replied
with a straightforward account of how Professor Lindzen, in a talk that he had given under my chairmanship at the Houses of Parliament, had calculated that if the
increase in evaporation from the Earth's surface
with warming was thrice that which the models predicted then climate sensitivity was one - third of that which the models predicted.
When I solve for ∆ T2, I come up
with 25.7 °C / doubling to get 6 deg C
warming with the current rate of
increase of CO2
increase by 2050.
But
when you look at the very cold regions where there is almost no water in the atmosphere to begin
with, or the desert regions, you do not in fact see any observable evidence that the air is any
warmer than it was in the past
with respect to CO2
increases.
You do not disagree
with my point but now throw in changes in atmospheric CO2 as evidence that the current rate of
warming must have been greater than that occurring during some 50 + year period of the MWP,
when there was no such
increase in human GHGs..
When SW radiation from the Sun interacts
with matter (the Earth, for example) it imparts energy to the receiving molecules which can
increase the thermal energy of the matter — it fills the «energy gap» required to reach the next energy level (
warm).
Powerful ocean heat pulses of the kind we observe now,
when combined
with an extraordinary human greenhouse gas heat forcing, also
increases the likelihood of another record
warm year.
Since to me (and many scientists, although some wanted a lot more corroborative evidence, which they've also gotten) it makes absolutely no sense to presume that the earth would just go about its merry way and keep the climate nice and relatively stable for us (though this rare actual climate scientist pseudo skeptic seems to think it would, based upon some non scientific belief — see second half of this piece),
when the earth changes climate easily as it is, climate is ultimately an expression of energy, it is stabilized (right now) by the oceans and ice sheets, and
increasing the number of long term thermal radiation / heat energy absorbing and re radiating molecules to levels not seen on earth in several million years would add an enormous influx of energy to the lower atmosphere earth system, which would mildly
warm the air and increasingly transfer energy to the earth over time, which in turn would start to alter those stabilizing systems (and which,
with increasing ocean energy retention and accelerating polar ice sheet melting at both ends of the globe, is exactly what we've been seeing) and start to reinforce the same process until a new stases would be reached well after the atmospheric levels of ghg has stabilized.
This figure indicates 3 things: (1) the time lag between emitting greenhouse gases and
when we see the principle effect is about 30 years, due mostly to the time required to heat the oceans, (2) the rate of temperature
increase predicted by a climate sensitivity of 3 °C tracks well
with the observed rate of temperature
increase, and (3) we have already locked in more than 1.5 °C
warming.
As we now that there has been a period of 18 years
with no surface
warming when atmospheric CO2 was
increasing for each and every year we know that the majority of the
warming in the last 50 years was not due to the
increase in atmospheric CO2 and the IPCC general circulation model calculated
warming due to CO2 is orders of magnitude too high.
When asked to explain what he meant he said well they all showed global
warming with increased CO2.
The fact that the oceans — and not the land — were so
warm last year should deeply worry us... There's evidence the Earth's oceans are undergoing never - before - seen change...
When you couple 2014's record - setting oceans
with our ever -
increasing greenhouse gas emissions, it portends an ominous surge of heat globally — on both land and in the oceans — for years to come.
Basic theory, climate model simulations and empirical evidence all confirm that
warmer climates, owing to
increased water vapour, lead to more intense precipitation events even
when the total annual precipitation is reduced slightly, and
with prospects for even stronger events
when the overall precipitation amounts
increase.
The histogram showed that
when temperature started
increasing from cold to
warm it tended to accelerate, which agrees
with that sensitivity.
He did not say just
when the
warming had stopped, but his reason for believing that Earth is cooling was decreasing Solar magnetic activity, which he noted he and his colleagues had been watching «
with increasing concern, since it began to wane in the mid-1990s.»
She will speak
with advancing ice extent as this
warm periods ends as the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods ended when sea level dropped and ice extent increa
warm periods ends as the Roman and Medieval
Warm Periods ended when sea level dropped and ice extent increa
Warm Periods ended
when sea level dropped and ice extent
increased.
but yet
when 390ppm of CO2
increased the temperature and we get even more (feedback) H2O airborne ALL of this is a feedback causing
warming, totally ignoring that any of the original 20,000 ppm of water vapor just might have interacted
with a photon to cause some of the
warming?