In turn, China is recording ever
increasing aerosol concentrations (though with slightly higher AAOD / AEOD ratios), culminating in the last decade as apparent in the (modelled) GOCART AOD for 2005 - 07.
So the whole basis for the study is flawed — its based on the affect of
increasing aerosol concentrations that actually are not increasing.
The results, said co-author and PNNL laboratory fellow Ruby Leung, «strongly suggest that
increasing aerosol concentrations (particles, mainly soot and sulfur, that pollute the air) in the past has produced a fog - like haze that has reduced solar radiation (surface heat from sunshine), despite more frequent clear days that should lead to increased solar radiation.»
Burning fossil fuels
increases aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere.
Not exact matches
The researchers say that either the
increase in snow cover over Eurasia or the escalation in greenhouse gas
concentration, volcanic
aerosols and solar output are to blame.
When the wind slows down, the
concentration of small particles of air pollution (
aerosols)
increase, which help
increase haze and leads to solar dimming in the area.
In addition, our deficient understanding of
aerosol forcing also hinders our ability to use the modern temperature record to constrain the «climate sensitivity» — the operative parameter in determining exactly how much warming will result from a given
increase in CO2
concentration.
«In a scenario of zeroed CO2 and sulfate
aerosol emissions, whether the warming induced by specified constant
concentrations of non-CO2 greenhouse gases could slow the CO2 decline following zero emissions or even reverse this trend and cause CO2 to
increase over time is assessed.
Such factors include
increased greenhouse gas
concentrations associated with fossil fuel burning, sulphate
aerosols produced as an industrial by - product, human - induced changes in land surface properties among other things.
«Global Upper Ocean Heat Storage Response to Radiative Forcing from Changing Solar Irradiance and
Increasing Greenhouse Gas /
Aerosol Concentrations.»
However, I am not a «warmista» by any means — we do not know how to properly quantify the albedo of
aerosols, including clouds, with their consequent negative feedback effects in any of the climate sensitivity models as yet — and all models in the ensemble used by the «warmistas» are indicating the sensitivities (to atmospheric CO2
increase) are too high, by factors ranging from 2 to 4: which could indicate that climate sensitivity to a doubling of current CO2
concentrations will be of the order of 1 degree C or less outside the equatorial regions (none or very little in the equatorial regions)- i.e. an outcome which will likely be beneficial to all of us.
2.10 All model simulations, whether they were forced with
increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and
aerosols or with
increased concentrations of greenhouse gases alone, show the follow - ing features: greater surface warming of the land than of the sea in winter; a maximum surface warming in high northern latitudes in winter... All these changes are associated with identifiable physical mechanisms.
Solar cycles,
aerosols, cloud cover and greenhouse gas
concentrations each play a roll, and in general,
increasing CO2, methane, and N2O in the troposphere will serve to reduce the net flow of energy from oceans to space.
2) There are errors in the assumed forcings, such as: a) AR5 let stratospheric
aerosol concentration go to zero after 2000 (a sure way to prod the models into higher predictions), but it actually
increased for the next 10 years «probably due to a large number of small volcanic eruptions».
The prominent upward trend in the GM precipitation occurring in the last century and the notable strengthening of the global monsoon in the last 30 yr (1961 — 90) appear unprecedented and are due possibly in part to the
increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration, though the authors» simulations of the effects from recent warming may be overestimated without considering the negative feedbacks from
aerosols.
This study of course does not take away very different concerns related to stratospheric
aerosol SRM geoengineering, like possible damage to the ozone layer [which in turn would be good news if you hate waiting for that spring tan] and the fact that allowing CO2
concentrations to keep rising presents other problems, like the necessity to never stop with the active process of SRM geoengineering, and
increasing ecological damage caused by ocean acidification.
Still the bottom line is that
concentrations of warming and cooling agents such as
aerosols, haze and reflecting chemicals, dust and smoke, are constantly
increasing.
Figure 9.5 shows that simulations that incorporate anthropogenic forcings, including
increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations and the effects of
aerosols, and that also incorporate natural external forcings provide a consistent explanation of the observed temperature record, whereas simulations that include only natural forcings do not simulate the warming observed over the last three decades.
«An
increase by only a factor of 4 in global
aerosol background
concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 ° K.»
The new study, published in Nature Geoscience, identified a negative feedback loop in which higher temperatures lead to an
increase in
concentrations of natural
aerosols that have a cooling [continue reading...]
«Reducing the wide range of uncertainty inherent in current model predictions of global climate change will require major advances in understanding and modeling of both (1) the factors that determine atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases and
aerosols, and (2) the so - called «feedbacks» that determine the sensitivity of the climate system to a prescribed
increase in greenhouse gases.»
However, if one converts the total effects of all greenhouse gases,
aerosols, etc. into an equivalent
increase in CO2
concentration (by reference to their effective radiative forcing RF, that from a doubling of CO2 being F2xCO2), then what you suggest would be pretty much in line with the generic definition of TCR in Section 10.8.1 of AR5 WGI:
in spite of falling
aerosols and
increasing GHG
concentrations.
(3)
increasing the flux of biogenic
aerosols (DMS, isoprenes etc) being put into the atmosphere and hence the global
concentration of CCN (Cloud Condensation Nuclei).
NecktopPC From the abstract for the Rassol and Schneider paper from 1971: «An
increase by only a factor of 4 in global
aerosol background
concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 ° K.
An
increase by only a factor of 4 in global
aerosol background
concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg.K.
Cloud condensation nuclei:
Aerosol particles that provide a platform for the condensation of water vapor, resulting in clouds with higher droplet
concentrations and
increased albedo.
Together with potentially
increased tropical
aerosol concentrations, they might even have an impact on the stratospheric background AOD currently (Vernier et al..
An
increase in
aerosols of similar hygroscopicity leads to an
increase in cloud droplet number
concentration that reduces the precipitation efficiency for warm clouds.
High regional
concentrations of scattering
aerosols can completely offset the positive forcing due to
increases in
Models suggest atmospheric
aerosol concentrations will
increase as the temperatures keep climbing — and that's bad news for your lungs.
In response to
increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate
aerosols, the multimodel average exhibits a positive annular trend in both hemispheres, with decreasing sea level pressure (SLP) over the pole and a compensating
increase in midlatitudes.
These were local phenomena and there are no empirical data supporting the notion that human
aerosols caused a 30 - year cycle of slight global cooling, despite rapidly accelerating
increases in CO2 emissions and
concentrations.
Should the Hadley cell, monsoons, and Walker circulation be expected to
increase in strength due to greater water vapor
concentrations (except where
aerosol emissions throw a wrench into it)?
During a dry winter, the reduction of
aerosol concentrations in weekend days may overwhelmingly impact on the DTR through a direct effect, i.e. by
increasing total solar irradiance near the surface and raising the daytime temperature and maximum temperature, and lowering relative humidity.
The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report compiled by the IPCC (AR4) noted that «changes in atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases and
aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system», and concluded that «
increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations is very likely to have caused most of the
increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century».
The new study, published in Nature Geoscience, identified a negative feedback loop in which higher temperatures lead to an
increase in
concentrations of natural
aerosols that have a cooling effect on the atmosphere.