Post 1940 was likely due to
increasing aerosol emissions due to rapid industrialization.
Ideas that we should
increase aerosol emissions to counteract global warming have been described as a «Faustian bargain» because that would imply an ever increasing amount of emissions in order to match the accumulated GHG in the atmosphere, with ever increasing monetary and health costs.
chriskoz @ 4 - could be due to
increased aerosol emissions, or the transition to Argo data, or something else.
Not exact matches
China «could cause some decreases [in stratospheric
aerosols] if that is the source,» Neely says, adding that growing SO2
emissions from India could also
increase cooling if humans are the dominant cause of injecting
aerosols into the atmosphere.
The scientists expect further warming in the Arctic as levels of greenhouse gases will continue to
increase and
aerosol particle
emissions will likely decrease to combat air pollution in different parts of the world.
But if the decrease in
aerosols is driving the brightening trend and the yield
increase, there's a limit to how low those
emissions can get.
A few of the main points of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An
increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system;
emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has
increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
Simulating natural and humanmade climate drivers, scientists showed that the decline in rainfall is primarily a response to humanmade
increases in greenhouse gases as well as a thinning of the ozone caused by humanmade
aerosol emissions.
Li said the study's findings should further spur countries like China and India to cut
aerosol emissions so they reduce pollution and thereby
increase their solar electricity generation more rapidly, in addition to the already known health benefits.
Scientists have already linked
aerosol emissions to
increases in lightning over areas of the Amazon prone to forest fires (pdf) as well as regions of China with thick air pollution.
Compared to the past decades, the pattern (more
emissions in South Asia) and the relative forcings are completely different, with much less relative influence of
aerosols than today (due to faster
increasing CO2 levels).
When
aerosols from human activities such as industrial plant and vehicle
emissions are added to the system, the energy budget has to deal with the
increase.
Analyses of the ground and aircraft data performed by Setyan et al. (2012), Shilling et al. (2013), and Kleinman et al. (2016) showed that organic
aerosol production
increased when human - caused
emissions from Sacramento mixed with air rich in isoprene, an organic compound wafting from many plants that originate in the area's foothills.
From the Physical Science Basis: «Shindell et al. (2009) estimated the impact of reactive species
emissions on both gaseous and
aerosol forcing species and found that ozone precursors, including methane, had an additional substantial climate effect because they
increased or decreased the rate of oxidation of SO2 to sulphate
aerosol.
«In a scenario of zeroed CO2 and sulfate
aerosol emissions, whether the warming induced by specified constant concentrations of non-CO2 greenhouse gases could slow the CO2 decline following zero
emissions or even reverse this trend and cause CO2 to
increase over time is assessed.
Regarding fine
aerosols, as suggested by David, there are huge
increases in industrial activity in SE Asia since 1975, but that is a rather linear expansion, where SO2
emissions are in lockstep with more dirtier
aerosols.
Compared to the past decades, the pattern (more
emissions in South Asia) and the relative forcings are completely different, with much less relative influence of
aerosols than today (due to faster
increasing CO2 levels).
Such is the case for the explanation — popular with the press when it was first proposed — that an
increase in
aerosol emissions, particularly from China, was acting to help offset the warming influence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide
emissions.
Increases in Asian
aerosol emissions have been suggested as one possible reason for the hiatus in global temperature
increase during the past 15 years.
There are several reasons for this; for example,
aerosol emissions have risen, there has been a preponderance of La Niña events at the end of this timeframe, there has been
increased heat storage in the deep oceans, and there was also an extended solar minimum.
While SO2
emissions may have had some small role in that period, they can't have a role in the current standstill, as the
increase of
emissions in SE Asia is compensated by the decrease in
emissions in the Western world, thus there is hardly any
increase in cooling
aerosols while CO2 levels are going up at record speed and temperatures are stalled.
Christy is correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is because over the past decade virtually every natural influence on global temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising
aerosols emissions, and
increased heat storage in the deep oceans).
(3) Is supported by the period of» global brightening» which occurred roughly simultaneously with significant reductions in
aerosol emissions (around 1985), and which ended when Eastern
emissions began to
increase.
«since the mid 1980s a significant
increase in visibility has been noted in western Europe (e.g. Doyle and Dorling, 2002), and there are strong indications that a reduction in
aerosol load from anthropogenic
emissions (in other words, air pollution) has been the dominant contributor to this effect, which is also referred to as «brightening».»
26 Sun Stepped Art
Aerosols Greenhouse gases Warming from decrease Cooling from
increase CO 2 removal by plants and soil organisms CO 2
emissions from land cleaning, fires, and decay Heat and CO 2 removal Heat and CO 2
emissions Ice and snow cover Natural and human
emissions Land and soil biotoa Long - term storage Deep ocean Shallow ocean Troposphere Fig. 20 - 6, p. 469
25 Fig. 20 - 6, p. 469 Troposphere Cooling from
increase Aerosols Warming from decrease Green - house gases CO2 removal by plants and soil organisms CO2
emissions from land clearing, fires, and decay Heat and CO2
emissions Heat and CO2 removal Deep ocean Long - term storage Land and soil biotoa Natural and human
emissions Shallow ocean Sun Ice and snow cover
Increased biomass can lead to increased emissions of biogases such as dimethyl sulfide and isoprene, which when oxidized in the atmospheric form sulphate and organic aerosols that can nucleate clouds, increasing cloud cover and planetary albedo — the CLAW Hy
Increased biomass can lead to
increased emissions of biogases such as dimethyl sulfide and isoprene, which when oxidized in the atmospheric form sulphate and organic aerosols that can nucleate clouds, increasing cloud cover and planetary albedo — the CLAW Hy
increased emissions of biogases such as dimethyl sulfide and isoprene, which when oxidized in the atmospheric form sulphate and organic
aerosols that can nucleate clouds,
increasing cloud cover and planetary albedo — the CLAW Hypothesis.
Note that while the BEST approach is based on correlations, they are correlations of variables with known causal relationships (i.e. an
increased greenhouse effect is known to cause global warming), although they do not appear to have considered some important influences like human
aerosol emissions or the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
In addition, the weakening of the RF of sulphate
aerosol in many regions due to reduced
emissions (Section 2.4.4.1) will be partially balanced by
increases in the RF of nitrate
aerosol (e.g., Liao and Seinfeld, 2005).
Even after 2.0 C / century happens for a couple of decades in a row (which looks likely within the next sixty years barring
aerosol emission increasing much faster than projections indicate), I'd still expect actual pauses to happen quite often.
[note] In this context it intrigues me that those who advocate for stratospheric
aerosol injection (SAI) tend to ignore the possibility that the possible termination effect would
increase net risk from greenhouse gas
emissions, and the deployment of SAI should therefore (in risk adjustment terms) justify accelerated mitigation rather than reduced mitigation.
The situation we have here is that the cooling effect of man - made
aerosols has declined appreciably [since 1951] as CO2
emissions and other GHGs have
increased, so we would expect even greater warming, which hasn't happened.
«Comparing the amount of warming in the U.S. saved by reducing our greenhouse gas
emissions by some 80 % to the amount of warming added in the U.S. by
increases in Asian black carbon (soot)
aerosol emissions (at least according to Teng et al.) and there is no clear winner.
We have recently discussed several papers which have found substantial global dimming as a result of
increased human
aerosol emissions from 1950 to 1980 and 2000 to 2010.
The geographical shifts of
emissions sources over the past 30 years, with reductions in N.America & Europe and
increases in Africa & South Asia, mean that we actually do expect the zonal
aerosol forcing pattern described.
Furthermore, estimating the direct and indirect
aerosol effects (29) through 2008 as a residual from the Earth's energy balance (as was done for 1954 — 2000) would generate results that either support or contradict the
increased importance of anthropogenic sulfur
emissions discussed above.
We saw
increasing BC
emissions also in the first half of the last century, which acted to counterbalance the cooling of the similarly
increasing sulfate
aerosols to some extent.
The response of biogenic secondary organic carbon
aerosol production to a temperature change, however, could be considerably lower than the response of biogenic VOC
emissions since
aerosol yields can decrease with
increasing temperature.
This was likely an
aerosol increase from the
increased refining of oil in Texas and more local
emissions from cars, whose effect on dimming is enhanced by the humid environment in the SE, and perhaps land - use change -LRB-?).
However, there have been proposals to mitigate climate change not by decreasing greenhouse gas
emissions, but by
increasing the reflection of incoming solar radiation with mirrors,
aerosols (small particles), or other means.
Examining the output of climate models run under
increases in human
emissions of greenhouse gas and
aerosols, Troy Masters noted a robust relationship between the modeled rate of heat uptake in the global oceans and the modeled climate sensitivity.
In other words, the slowed surface warming isn't a result of a smaller global energy imbalance due to factors like
increased cooling from human
aerosol emissions.
These were local phenomena and there are no empirical data supporting the notion that human
aerosols caused a 30 - year cycle of slight global cooling, despite rapidly accelerating
increases in CO2
emissions and concentrations.
They hypothesize that natural
emissions of
aerosol precursors will
increase in a warming climate, causing a negative feedback so as to dampen the warming.
Should the Hadley cell, monsoons, and Walker circulation be expected to
increase in strength due to greater water vapor concentrations (except where
aerosol emissions throw a wrench into it)?
Because predictions of a cooling planet made during the 1970s — a number of researchers then believed that
increases in the
emission of
aerosols, such as dust and smog, could put the planet on a path of sustained cooling — turned out to be wrong, climate deniers argue that the current projections could prove to be just as fallacious.
The identification of other, sometimes more powerful, greenhouse gases such as methane, the contributions to atmospheric carbon dioxide from other human activities such as deforestation and cement manufacture, better understanding of the temperature - changing properties of atmospheric pollution such as sulphur
emissions,
aerosols and their importance in the post-1940s northern hemisphere cooling: the knowledge - base was
increasing year by year.
S. Ichtiaque Rasool and Stephen Schneider of NASA, for example, modelled the effects of pollution in the form of
aerosols and sulphur
emissions in the atmosphere and discovered that a significant
increase of such pollution could - possibly - lead to a cooling episode.
Emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and of reactive gases such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons, which lead to the formation of secondary pollutants including
aerosol particles and tropospheric ozone, have
increased substantially in response to human activities.
If we are seeing changes to the tropopause temperatures as an indirect impact from
increased Asian
aerosol emissions or solar - driven ozone changes, then this might be better thought of as impacting the efficacy of those forcings rather than implying some sensitivity change.