Marvel, et al., assume land use changes slightly
increase global albedo (negative forcing).
Not exact matches
Whereas carbon levels can affect warming on a
global scale, the effects of
increased albedo and poor evotranspiration would affect temperatures only on a regional level.
Critics argue that
albedo modification and other «geoengineering» schemes are risky and would discourage nations from trying to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide, the heat - trapping gas that comes from the burning of fossil fuels and that is causing
global warming by absorbing
increasing amounts of energy from sunlight.
They tend to believe that as the planet warms, low - level cloud cover will
increase, thus
increasing planetary
albedo (overall reflectiveness of the Earth), offsetting the
increased greenhouse effect and preventing a dangerous level of
global warming from occurring.
Scientists say
increasing the planet's
albedo by 1 percent — by painting roads and roof tops white — might be enough to halt
global warming.
He then uses what information is available to quantify (in Watts per square meter) what radiative terms drive that temperature change (for the LGM this is primarily
increased surface
albedo from more ice / snow cover, and also changes in greenhouse gases... the former is treated as a forcing, not a feedback; also, the orbital variations which technically drive the process are rather small in the
global mean).
Ice sheet
albedo forcing is estimated to have caused a
global mean forcing of about — 3.2 W m — 2 (based on a range of several LGM simulations) and radiative forcing from
increased atmospheric aerosols (primarily dust and vegetation) is estimated to have been about — 1 W m — 2 each.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are
increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases
albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the
global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are
increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders
increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs,
increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Increased CO2 does not warm the atmosphere, it melts the snow and ice reducing
global albedo, and that causes AGW.
I think that only illustrates the bizarre use of the
global average and models that in effect suggest cutting down trees would
increase albedo and cool the planet.
28, Alastair McDonald:
Increased CO2 does not warm the atmosphere, it melts the snow and ice reducing
global albedo, and that causes AGW.
For instance,
increasing cloud cover due to
global warming may change the
albedo, but this would be a feedback to a larger warming effect, rather than a cooling.
Increasing the negative feedback, as might happen in the atmosphere if
global warming creates
increased cloud cover (hence
albedo), can
increase the amplitude of the oscillations.
So for example deglaciation warmed
global mean temps by about 5 C over 10k years with a radiative forcing of about 6.5 W / m2 (total of both GHG
increases and
albedo decreases).
(Orbital forcing doesn't have much of a
global annual average forcing, and it's even concievable that the sensitivity to orbital forcing as measured in terms of
global averages and the long - term response (temporal scale of ice sheet response) might be approaching infinity or even be negative (if more sunlight is directed onto an ice sheet, the
global average
albedo might
increase, but the ice sheet would be more likely to decay, with a
global average
albedo feedback that causes warming).
Is there a point in
global warming where
albedo would suddenly
increase instead of decreasing?
Global climate models have successfully predicted the rise in temperature as greenhouse gases
increased, the cooling of the stratosphere as the troposphere warmed, polar amplification due the ice -
albedo effect and other effects, greater
increase in nighttime than in daytime temperatures, and the magnitude and duration of the cooling from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo.
Nighttime
increases in cloud cover will contribute to
global warming — only daytime changes and the concurrent
increase in
albedo would give negative forcing.
«Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to
increase planetary
albedo, offsetting mean
global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally
increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an
increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the
global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
If CO2 in the Anthropocene atmosphere contributes to re-vegetating currently arid areas as it did post-LGM, we should expect an even greater warming feedback from CO2 than is assumed from water vapor and
albedo feedbacks, due to decreased
global dust - induced
albedo and
increased water vapor from transpiration over
increased vegetated area.
Albedo from medium / low level clouds warms or cools the ocean surface by
increasing or decreasing over time across the
global surface.
If part of the result of
increased GHG's is
increased cloudiness, leading to a higher SW
albedo, then the overall
global temperature need not
increase, because the amount of energy actually entering the system has been reduced.
The water vapor, lapse - rate and ice -
albedo feedbacks in isolation enhance the
global warming that would result from
increasing CO2 concentrations alone to around +2.2 °C.
Our observational studies (Gray and Schwartz, 2010 and 2011) of the variations of outward radiation (IR +
albedo) energy flux to space (ISCCP data) vs. tropical and global precipitation increase (from NCEP reanalysis data) indicates that there is not a reduction of global net radiation (IR + Albedo) to space which is associated with increased global or tropical - regional rai
albedo) energy flux to space (ISCCP data) vs. tropical and
global precipitation
increase (from NCEP reanalysis data) indicates that there is not a reduction of
global net radiation (IR +
Albedo) to space which is associated with increased global or tropical - regional rai
Albedo) to space which is associated with
increased global or tropical - regional rainfall.
In the real world the most obvious and most common reason for an
increase in the speed of energy flow through the system occurs naturally when the oceans are in warm surface mode and solar input to the oceans due to reduced
global albedo is high as apparently occurred during the period 1975 to 1998.
In this new study, the researchers showed that
increasing the
albedo of a 1m2 surface by 0.01 would have the same effect on
global temperature, over the next 80 years, as decreasing emissions by around 7 kg of CO2.
16) The main cloud bands move more equatorward to regions where insolation is more intense and total
global albedo increases once more due to longer lines of air mass mixing.
«Kopacz et al. used a
global chemical transport model to identify the location from which the BC arriving at a variety of locations in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau originates, after which they calculated its direct and snow -
albedo radiative forcings... they say that observations of black carbon (BC) content in snow «show a rapidly
increasing trend,»... «emissions from northern India and central China contribute the majority of BC to the Himalayas,» and that «the Tibetan Plateau receives most BC from western and central China, as well as from India, Nepal, the Middle East, Pakistan and other countries.»»
For example, removing dark boreal forests primarily leads to
global cooling through the radiative effects of
increasing local
albedo [21 — 23].
To date, while various effects and feedbacks constrain the certainty placed on recent and projected climate change (EG,
albedo change, the response of water vapour, various future emissions scenarios etc), it is virtually certain that CO2
increases from human industry have reversed and will continue to reverse the downward trend in
global temperatures that should be expected in the current phase of the Milankovitch cycle.
Global Cooling:
Increasing World - wide Urban
Albedos to Offset CO2, Climatic Change, 94, 275 - 286; Weber, G.W., et al. (2017).
This is consistent with other recent work that hypothesizes that
increase of melting rates of Arctic sea ice may be as much due to Chinese black carbon falling on the ice (and thereby decreasing its
albedo and
increasing solar heating) than from rising
global temperatures.
Their belief came about because the optical physics of aerosols, originating from Sagan and introduced to climate modelling by his ex-students, Lacis and Hansen in 1974 at GISS / NAS, predicts the cloud part of «
global dimming», the
increase of
albedo by aerosols supposed to hide present CO2 - AGW.
I predict that we we will soon see denialist arguments of the form «yeah sure
global temperatures are again rising sharply, but that is due to decreased
albedo due to decreased arctic sea ice, not because
increased CO2 causes
global warming».
A slight change of ocean temperature (after a delay caused by the high specific heat of water, the annual mixing of thermocline waters with deeper waters in storms) ensures that rising CO2 reduces infrared absorbing H2O vapour while slightly
increasing cloud cover (thus Earth's
albedo), as evidenced by the fact that the NOAA data from 1948 - 2008 shows a fall in
global humidity (not the positive feedback rise presumed by NASA's models!)
Project Earthshine (Earthshine is the ghostly glow of the dark side of the Moon) has been measuring changes of the terrestrial
albedo in relation to cloud coverage data; according to cloud coverage data available since 1983, the
albedo of the Earth has decreased from 1984 to 1998, then
increased up to 2004 in sync with the Mean
Global Temperature.
Project Earthshine shows the
albedo decreasing to 1998 and then
increasing since perfectly matching the end of
global warming in 1998 and the start of cooling after 1998.
Even with this
increase, the
global mean
albedo is significantly smaller than for KT97 based on ERBE (0.298 vs 0.313).»
Lately
global albedo has seemed to be
increasing, possibly due to regional aerosol issues.
major volcanic activity
increase and
global cloud / snow coverage
increase equates to a slightly higher
albedo
Albedo should
increase in response to very low solar conditions which should result in an
increase in major volcanic activity,
increase in
global cloud coverage and sea ice / snow coverage.
I think it is a very low solar /
increase albedo / lower overall sea surface temperature play that will result in lower
global temperatures as we move forward from here.
With regard to his «other hypotheses, predict the opposite» he may be referring to
increased albedo due to the expectation that
increased global warming
increases snowfall in the northern and southern latitudes; or the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation of the ocean.
Palle et al (cited elsewhere here) have shown that the total
albedo has decreased over the period 1985 - 2000, while cloud cover also decreased (resulting in
global warming), and has reversed itself since then, with
increased cloud cover.
Internal conditions change, orbital forcing roughly constant during (relatively brief) duration of YD,
global average temperature barely changes despite major
albedo increase, YD ends, deglaciation continues apace...
MY climatic play — It is very low solar and as a result an
increase in
albedo / lower sea surface temperatures which will bring about
global cooling from here.
«The
increased open water lowers the average
albedo [reflectivity] of the planet, accelerating
global warming; and we are also finding the open water causing seabed permafrost to melt, releasing large amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere.»
Forests have a lower
albedo than open land so deforestation
increases albedo (but for the record, no, chopping down all our forests is not the solution to
global warming).
By pushing large amounts of soot into the atmosphere, we will be
increasing the planet's
albedo and thus helping fight
global warming.