Our climate model exposes amplifying feedbacks in the Southern Ocean that slow Antarctic bottom water formation and increase ocean temperature near ice shelf grounding lines, while cooling the surface ocean and
increasing sea ice cover and water column stability.
Thus, while there has been persistence of low summer ice conditions the last few years, model results suggest we can not rule out short periods of
increased sea ice cover, but that this in no way contradicts the long - term sea ice loss.
Not exact matches
Indeed, Arctic change in the last two decades has been profound — not just dwindling
sea ice, but also noticeably
increased precipitation, and thus snow
cover, over Eurasia.
The result: Surface temperatures
increased rapidly, especially in the Arctic, which saw its September
sea ice cover shrink by 25 percent.
Although the
ice cover has
increased over the past few years, the Arctic's
sea ice is now much thinner than it was just a few years ago, making it more vulnerable to future warming.
«One societally relevant implication is that more storminess probably means more erosion of Arctic coastlines, especially in tandem with declines in buffering
sea ice cover and
increases in thawing coastal permafrost,» concluded Dr. Vavrus.
Melting can be rapid: as the last
ice age ended, the disappearance of the
ice sheet
covering North America
increased sea level by more than a metre per century at times.
That's important — changing
sea ice, changing lake
ice, changing snow
cover,
increasing shrubs — but I wanted the book to enrich that picture, by describing those changes through the human lives that experience them.
«Because these plants are photosynthetic, it's not surprising to find that as the amount of
sea ice cover declined, the amount of [photosynthesis]
increased,» says biological oceanographer Kevin Arrigo of Stanford University's School of Earth Sciences, who led an effort to use the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) devices on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites to determine changes in phytoplankton growth.
As a result of atmospheric patterns that both warmed the air and reduced cloud
cover as well as
increased residual heat in newly exposed ocean waters, such melting helped open the fabled Northwest Passage for the first time [see photo] this summer and presaged tough times for polar bears and other Arctic animals that rely on
sea ice to survive, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
«While more research should be done, we should be aware that an
increasing number of studies, including this one, suggest that the loss of Arctic
sea ice cover is not only a problem for remote Arctic communities, but could affect millions of people worldwide.»
The knock - on effects of such a transition would be huge — they would cause marked
increase of warming at the pole, since open water absorbs more of the sun's energy than
ice -
covered seas.
Furthermore, we must understand how changes in
sea ice cover affect the feeding ecology of humpback whales and their competitors in the short - term and the dynamics of krill populations over the longer term, particularly given the
increasing pressure from commercial krill harvests [36].
Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow
cover; shrinking
sea ice; rising
sea levels; ocean acidification; and
increasing atmospheric water vapor.
Since IPCC (2001) the cryosphere has undergone significant changes, such as the substantial retreat of arctic
sea ice, especially in summer; the continued shrinking of mountain glaciers; the decrease in the extent of snow cover and seasonally frozen ground, particularly in spring; the earlier breakup of river and lake ice; and widespread thinning of antarctic ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coast, indicating increased basal melting due to increased ocean heat fluxes in the cavities below the ice shelv
sea ice, especially in summer; the continued shrinking of mountain glaciers; the decrease in the extent of snow
cover and seasonally frozen ground, particularly in spring; the earlier breakup of river and lake
ice; and widespread thinning of antarctic
ice shelves along the Amundsen
Sea coast, indicating increased basal melting due to increased ocean heat fluxes in the cavities below the ice shelv
Sea coast, indicating
increased basal melting due to
increased ocean heat fluxes in the cavities below the
ice shelves.
It's a short (10 question) poll,
covering topics like the rate of CO2
increase, predicted future temperatures,
sea ice and
sea level states, and hurricane frequencies.
If the heat transport by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation suddenly
increases for some reason (we'll come to that), Greenland suddenly gets warm (an effect amplified by receding
sea ice cover of the
seas near Greenland) and Antarctica starts to cool.
And may I add looks remarkably similar to the idealized deformation of the polar vortex under scenarios with Arctic warming, low Arctic
sea ice and
increased Siberian snow
cover presented in my recent review paper with Jennifer Francis [of Rutgers University].
Is the
increased forcing from heat absorbed in the Arctic from the drop in snow
cover and Arctic
Sea Ice included in the Charney sensitivity or is it part of the larger Earth System Sensitivity?
Maue discussed how «two camps» of researchers claim to have
increased predictability of such weather events over periods of a month or more by using clues either in the Arctic, related to the extent of
sea ice and snow
cover, or in the temperature of surface waters across the Pacific Ocean.
There are several things that are well proven and simple to understand — for example, global termperature
increase,
sea level rise, polar
ice cover, glacier retreat, and snow
cover.
That was due to
increased global moisture content, decreased global average cloud
cover and decreased
sea ice extent at high latitudes.
All climate models tell us that it is the Arctic
sea ice cover that declines first, and that Antarctic
ice extent falls only later, and may even (as observed) temporarily
increase in response to changing patterns of atmospheric circulation.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally
increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an
increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when
ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow
cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
This would certainly explain why arctic
sea ice cover has been absolutely crashing in recent years while the HARDCRU / GISS global average temps had been
increasing more modestly.
The influence of anthropogenic forcing has also been detected in various physical systems over the last 50 years, including
increases in global oceanic heat content,
increases in
sea level, shrinking of alpine glaciers, reductions in Arctic
sea ice extent, and reductions in spring snow
cover (Hegerl et al., 2007).
The warming of approximately 0.1 — 0.2 °C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the
increasing loss of snow
cover and Arctic
sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising
sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals.
The end of the first half of the Holocene — between about 5 and 4 ka — was punctuated by rapid events at various latitudes, such as an abrupt
increase in NH
sea ice cover (Jennings et al., 2001); a decrease in Greenland deuterium excess, reflecting a change in the hydrological cycle (Masson - Delmotte et al., 2005b); abrupt cooling events in European climate (Seppa and Birks, 2001; Lauritzen, 2003); widespread North American drought for centuries (Booth et al., 2005); and changes in South American climate (Marchant and Hooghiemstra, 2004).
«The changes are happening so fast in the Arctic — with
sea -
ice loss, with
increased time of no snow
cover — that that's really the driving feature.
The 2009 State of the Climate Report of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tells us that climate change is real because of rising surface air temperatures since 1880 over land and the ocean, ocean acidification,
sea level rise, glaciers melting, rising specific humidity, ocean heat content
increasing,
sea ice retreating, glaciers diminishing, Northern Hemisphere snow
cover decreasing, and so many other lines of evidence.
With impacts on Arctic coastal communities and
increases in maritime activities, both observations of changes underway and predictions at the scale of less than a week to several months out are of importance to the research community and those living and operating in
ice -
covered seas.
Because low Barents - Kara
sea ice and high Eurasian snow
cover favor northwestward expansion of the Siberian high, this atmospheric pattern
increases the probability of driving cold Siberian air southeastward into populous East Asia.
Increasing greenhouse gases should, by simple physics, strengthen the polar vortex, but what favors weakening is the loss of
sea ice and more snow
cover in Eurasia, Those work together to force this weakening of the polar vortex that we're seeing.»
Whether it's a killer winter in South America,
increased snow
cover globally, record Arctic
sea ice recovery, recovering glaciers in the Alps, record high
sea ice extent in Antarctica, extreme cold in southeast Europe, or 5 consecutive colder than normal European winters, just to name a few, the ominous signs of global cooling are compounding rapidly.
Furthermore, the Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification, and stimulated by the combined
increasing Arctic temperatures and rapid loss of
sea ice in all seasons along with declining snow
cover in the spring and early summer.
If cloud
cover increases as
sea ice decreases, that could offset the direct effect of the SIAF, especially if clouds
increase in summer, when there is the most sun and the most
sea -
ice loss.
The most definitive 30 - year P trends occur along the northern Russian border and adjacent to Hudson's Bay (> 75 % change of a wetter future), likely in response to diminished
sea ice cover and resulting
increase in atmospheric moisture, and in some areas of northern Africa and the Middle East (< 35 % chance of wetting, equivalent to > 65 % chance of drying; Fig. 8b).
This year's record high temperature and low
sea ice cover increases concerns about what will happen next in the Arctic and globally.
(4) The rapid decrease of summer
sea -
ice cover allows
increasing numbers of killer whales to use the Canadian High Arctic as a hunting ground.
A new NASA / British Antarctic Survey study examines why Antarctic
sea ice cover has
increased under the effects of climate change over the past two decades.
For example, the dramatic decline of summer
sea ice in the Arctic — a loss of
ice cover roughly equal to half the area of the continental United States — exacerbates global warming by reducing the reflectivity of Earth's surface and
increasing the amount of heat absorbed.
Given the preconditioned
ice cover, and short - term forecast for
increased high pressure in the Arctic, it is still likely that the 2013 fall
sea ice extent will achieve values comparable to those of 2007.
Polar bears are one of the most sensitive Arctic marine mammals to climate warming because they spend most of their lives on
sea ice.35 Declining sea ice in northern Alaska is associated with smaller bears, probably because of less successful hunting of seals, which are themselves ice - dependent and so are projected to decline with diminishing ice and snow cover.36, 37,38,39 Although bears can give birth to cubs on sea ice, increasing numbers of female bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied population in the Arctic, sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort Sea region
sea ice.35 Declining
sea ice in northern Alaska is associated with smaller bears, probably because of less successful hunting of seals, which are themselves ice - dependent and so are projected to decline with diminishing ice and snow cover.36, 37,38,39 Although bears can give birth to cubs on sea ice, increasing numbers of female bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied population in the Arctic, sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort Sea region
sea ice in northern Alaska is associated with smaller bears, probably because of less successful hunting of seals, which are themselves
ice - dependent and so are projected to decline with diminishing
ice and snow
cover.36, 37,38,39 Although bears can give birth to cubs on
sea ice, increasing numbers of female bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied population in the Arctic, sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort Sea region
sea ice,
increasing numbers of female bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied population in the Arctic,
sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort Sea region
sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort
Sea region
Sea region.45
In other words, there has been virtually no change in
sea ice cover over the last 12 years, despite the fact that atmospheric CO2 has now surpassed 410 parts per million, a considerable and steady
increase over levels in 2006 which were about 380 ppm (see below, from the Scripps Oceanographic Laboratory, included in the Washington Post story 3 May 2018):
For example, reductions in seasonal
sea ice cover and higher surface temperatures may open up new habitat in polar regions for some important fish species, such as cod, herring, and pollock.128 However, continued presence of cold bottom - water temperatures on the Alaskan continental shelf could limit northward migration into the northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea off northwestern Alaska.129, 130 In addition, warming may cause reductions in the abundance of some species, such as pollock, in their current ranges in the Bering Sea131and reduce the health of juvenile sockeye salmon, potentially resulting in decreased overwinter survival.132 If ocean warming continues, it is unlikely that current fishing pressure on pollock can be sustained.133 Higher temperatures are also likely to increase the frequency of early Chinook salmon migrations, making management of the fishery by multiple user groups more challenging.
sea ice cover and higher surface temperatures may open up new habitat in polar regions for some important fish species, such as cod, herring, and pollock.128 However, continued presence of cold bottom - water temperatures on the Alaskan continental shelf could limit northward migration into the northern Bering
Sea and Chukchi Sea off northwestern Alaska.129, 130 In addition, warming may cause reductions in the abundance of some species, such as pollock, in their current ranges in the Bering Sea131and reduce the health of juvenile sockeye salmon, potentially resulting in decreased overwinter survival.132 If ocean warming continues, it is unlikely that current fishing pressure on pollock can be sustained.133 Higher temperatures are also likely to increase the frequency of early Chinook salmon migrations, making management of the fishery by multiple user groups more challenging.
Sea and Chukchi
Sea off northwestern Alaska.129, 130 In addition, warming may cause reductions in the abundance of some species, such as pollock, in their current ranges in the Bering Sea131and reduce the health of juvenile sockeye salmon, potentially resulting in decreased overwinter survival.132 If ocean warming continues, it is unlikely that current fishing pressure on pollock can be sustained.133 Higher temperatures are also likely to increase the frequency of early Chinook salmon migrations, making management of the fishery by multiple user groups more challenging.
Sea off northwestern Alaska.129, 130 In addition, warming may cause reductions in the abundance of some species, such as pollock, in their current ranges in the Bering
Sea131and reduce the health of juvenile sockeye salmon, potentially resulting in decreased overwinter survival.132 If ocean warming continues, it is unlikely that current fishing pressure on pollock can be sustained.133 Higher temperatures are also likely to increase the frequency of early Chinook salmon migrations, making management of the fishery by multiple user groups more challenging.
Sea131and reduce the health of juvenile sockeye salmon, potentially resulting in decreased overwinter survival.132 If ocean warming continues, it is unlikely that current fishing pressure on pollock can be sustained.133 Higher temperatures are also likely to
increase the frequency of early Chinook salmon migrations, making management of the fishery by multiple user groups more challenging.134
Also, I hate to sound like a broken record (as I said this about the «Southern
sea ice is
increasing» page too), but I don't see why we need both this page and the one called «IPCC global warming projections were wrong,» as they both seem to
cover the same topic.
The evidence for AGW
covers a number of areas:
increases in CO2 levels, overall warming, a rise in
sea levels, falls in snow
cover, receding glaciers, a decrease in Arctic
ice, earlier springs, treelines moving towards the poles.
See my comment # 308791 above, in which I mention the «context» of both the drop in Arctic
sea ice and the
increase in northern hemisphere snow
cover plus Antarctic
sea ice.
These trends in extreme weather events are accompanied by longer - term changes as well, including surface and ocean temperature
increase over recent decades, snow and
ice cover decrease and
sea level rise.
Population
increase of polar bears on Svalbard and decrease in
sea -
ice cover in the Arctic region during summer probably results in more frequent interactions with reindeer on the archipelago.